Wake Up America----Freedom Rings

American Capitalism Gone With A Whimper

2010-03-31T18:01:00.001-06:00

REMEMBER IN NOVEMBER

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From Pravda-----------a Russian Newspaper

The irony of this article appearing in the English edition of Pravda (Russian on-line newspaper) defies description. Why can a Russian newspaper print the following yet the American media either can't or won't see it?

Check the Snopes link at the end of the article for authenticity:

American Capitalism Gone With A Whimper

It must be said, that like the breaking of a great dam, the American descent into Marxism is happening with breath taking speed, against the back drop of a passive, hapless sheeple, excuse me dear reader, I meant people.

True, the situation has been well prepared on and off for the past century, especially the past twenty years. The initial testing grounds was conducted upon our Holy Russia and a bloody test it was. But we Russians would not just roll over and give up our freedoms and our souls, no matter how much money Wall Street poured into the fists of the Marxists.

Those lessons were taken and used to properly prepare the American populace for the surrender of their freedoms and souls, to the whims of their elites and betters.

First, the population was dumbed down through a politicized and substandard education system based on pop culture, rather than the classics. Americans know more about their favorite TV dramas than the drama in DC that directly affects their lives. They care more for their "right" to choke down a McDonalds burger or a Burger King burger than for their constitutional rights. Then they turn around and lecture us about our rights and about our "democracy". Pride blinds the foolish.

Then their faith in God was destroyed, until their churches, all tens of thousands of different "branches and denominations" were for the most part little more than Sunday circuses and their televangelists and top protestant mega preachers were more than happy to sell out their souls and flocks to be on the "winning" side of one pseudo Marxist politician or another. Their flocks may complain, but when explained that they would be on the "winning" side, their flocks were ever so quick to reject Christ in hopes for earthly power. Even our Holy Orthodox churches are scandalously liberalized in America.

The final collapse has come with the election of Barack Obama. His speed in the past three months has been truly impressive. His spending and money printing has been a record setter, not just in America's short history but in the world. If this keeps up for more than another year, and there is no sign that it will not, America at best will resemble the Weimar Republic and at worst Zimbabwe.

These past two weeks have been the most breath taking of all. First came the announcement of a planned redesign of the American Byzantine tax system, by the very thieves who used it to bankroll their thefts, losses, and swindles of hundreds of billions of dollars. These make our Russian oligarchs look little more than ordinary street thugs, in comparison. Yes, the Americans have beat our own thieves in the shear volumes. Should we congratulate them?

These men, of course, are not an elected panel but made up of appointees picked from the very financial oligarchs and their henchmen who are now gorging themselves on trillions of American dollars, in one bailout after another. They are also usurping the rights, duties, and powers of the American congress (parliament). Again, congress has put up little more than a whimper to their masters.

Then came Barack Obama's command that GM's (General Motors) president step down from leadership of his company. That is correct, dear reader, in the land of "pure" free markets, the American president now has the power, the self-given power, to fire CEOs and we can assume other employees of private companies, at will. Come hither, go dither, the centurion commands his minions.

So it should be no surprise, that the American president has followed this up with a "bold" move of declaring that he and another group of unelected, chosen stooges will now redesign the entire automotive industry and will even be the guarantee of automobile policies.. I am sure that if given the chance, they would happily try and redesign it for the whole of the world, too. Prime Minister Putin, less than two months ago, warned Obama and UK's Blair, not to follow the path to Marxism, it only leads to disaster. Apparently, even though we suffered 70 years of this Western sponsored horror show, we know nothing, as foolish, drunken Russians, so let our "wise" Anglo-Saxon fools find out the folly of their own pride.

Again, the American public has taken this with barely a whimper... but a "free man" whimper.

So, should it be any surprise to discover that the Democratically controlled Congress of America is working on passing a new regulation that would give the American Treasury department the power to set "fair" maximum salaries, evaluate performance, and control how private companies give out pay raises and bonuses? Senator Barney Frank, a social pervert basking in his homosexuality (of course, amongst the modern, enlightened American societal norm, as well as that of the general West, homosexuality is not only not a looked down upon life choice, but is often praised as a virtue) and his Marxist enlightenment has led this effort. He stresses that this only affects companies that receive government monies, but it is retroactive and taken to a logical extreme, this would include any company or industry that has ever received a tax break or incentive.

The Russian owners of American companies and industries should look thoughtfully at this and the option of closing their facilities down and fleeing the land of the Red as fast as possible. In other words, divest while there is still value left.

The proud American will go down into his slavery without a fight, beating his chest, and proclaiming to the world, how free he really is. The world will only snicker.

Snopes link -

http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/pravda.asp

Things to Consider Before Supporting Any Candidate for Public Office

2010-03-30T19:25:00.001-06:00

candidate compare?

When you are considering supporting any candidate for office, consider the following four criteria:

1. Do they know and understand the Constitution? If they don’t know and understand it, how can they possibly defend it? As a threshold matter, do they know the text? Have they even read it? If they don’t even know what it says, how can they follow it? If the can’t be bothered to read it, just how sincere a Constitutional defender are they? And do they understand it? Do they have a firm grasp of the basic principles and concepts of our Constitutional Republic? Attend a town hall meeting and ask them some pointed questions to test their knowledge. A good list of questions to ask can be found at the back of the excellent book, the Five Thousand Year Leap, by W. Cleon Skousen. If they don’t know the text or the answers to those questions, then you should be very hesitant to support them for office. Certainly you can have good, sincere people of demonstrated courage who have recently woken up and had not heretofore studied the Constitution. But courage without understanding will just not cut it. At the least they should correct their ignorance, and you can help them do so, such as by giving them a copy of Skousen’s book to go along with their reading of the text of the Constitution itself, but frankly I have to wonder why they are even running for office if they have not yet bothered to read and study the Constitution.

2. Even if they know what the Constitution says and understand it, do they have the integrity and courage to follow the Constitution, come what may? Knowledge without courage and integrity is even more useless than is courage without understanding. There’s a thundering herd of politicians, most of them lawyers, who do know what it says but simply don’t give a damn. When trying to figure out whether a candidate has the courage and integrity to actually be faithful to the Constitution, look not to what they say now, on the campaign trail, but to what they have done. If they have already served in office, what was their voting record? If they have already voted for unconstitutional bills, then they have shown you all you need to know. Such a person is a demonstrated oath breaker. If, to be fair to them, there is a valid question of whether one of their votes was a violation of their oath, ask them to explain why they voted the way they did. Unless they can articulate a credible rationale for why the bill was constitutional, you should pass. And have they spoken out against the violations of the Constitution by their own party, or do they only point out the violations by “the other team”? And even if they have no political voting record to look at, have they, in the past, ever stood tall in any situation, with the courage of their convictions, even at personal risk? In other words, what have they DONE? When have they taken a stand? If you can’t find any examples of them taking a stand, I would be very suspicious of believing the campaign promises.

3. Do they have the personal integrity to keep specific campaign promises, such as promises to term limit themselves or to vote for or against particular bills? What about them or their past behavior makes you confident they will keep their promises? When have they been true to their word even to their own harm?

4. What is their motivation for running? Do they look forward to public office? Are they excited about the prospect? If so, run! Frankly, the best candidate is the sincere constitutionalist who does not want to run for office, who loathes the thought of all the headaches that go with the job, that you have to convince to run against their better judgment (because serving in public office is a royal pain in the rear to normal people. Only psycho sociopaths enjoy it). You want someone who is not interested in power and perks. All too often I have seen people who were sincere constitutionalists but who also were very keen on public office sell their souls and compromise their principles because they were star-struck with the prospects of fame and fortune and liked the idea of being called “Senator” or “Representative” so-and-so just a bit too much. Seek out the person who doesn’t care a whit about all the perks and power, who detests the idea of running for office, and convince that one to run. You will more likely have someone who will stand tall no matter what.

A candidate for office must know the Constitution, must have the courage to follow it, must have the integrity to keep promises, and must be in it not for personal gain, but to serve, protect, and defend. Look past the campaign rhetoric and see if you can find a track record of knowledge, courage, and actual devotion to country. If you can’t find such a clear track record, look elsewhere.

ABC NEWS BANS FLAG LAPEL PINS !!!

2010-03-30T19:22:00.000-06:00

ABC NEWS BANS FLAG LAPEL PINS

WHAT IS NEXT ???

Barbara Walters said that this was going to hurt ABC bad. As you know she works for ABC.

This should make your blood boil...it DOES mine!

ABC NEWS BANS FLAG LAPEL PINS!
YESTERDAY THE BRASS AT ABC NEWS ISSUED ORDERS FORBIDDING REPORTERS TO WEAR LAPEL PIN AMERICAN FLAGS OR OTHER PATRIOTIC INSIGNIA.. THEIR REASONING WAS THAT ABC SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL ABOUT 'CAUSES'.
SINCE WHEN IS SUPPORT FOR PREVENTING DEATH AND DESTRUCTION SOME SORT OF A 'CAUSE'? SINCE WHEN IS PATRIOTISM TO BE DISCOURAGED?
I URGE YOU TO BOYCOTT ABC AND ITS SPONSORS AND AFFILIATES. WE ARE SLOWLY LOSING EVERYTHING OUR COUNTRY STANDS FOR AND EVERYTHING OUR MEN AND WOMEN FOUGHT AND DIED TO PRESERVE!
PLEASE FORWARD THIS TO AS MANY AS YOU CAN.

THIS HAS BEEN VERIFIED THROUGH: http://www.snopes.com/rumors/noflags.asp

WA SUPREME COURT JUSTICE RICHARD SANDERS AUTHORS SIGNIFICANT GUN RIGHTS RULING

2010-03-30T19:20:00.000-06:00

The Washington State Supreme Court has issued a precedent-setting opinion in
the case of State v. Christopher William Sieyes which holds that the Second
Amendment of the U.S. Constitution's Bill of Rights "applies to the states
via the Fourteenth Amendment"

This outstanding opinion was authored by Justice Richard B. Sanders, a Supreme
Court veteran who clearly understands the history of both the state and federal
constitutional right to keep and bear arms. Perhaps what makes the Sanders
opinion so remarkable is that it places the Washington Supreme Court ahead of
the United States Supreme Court in recognition that the U.S. Constitution's
recognition of the right to keep and bear arms applies to all citizens, and
should also place limits on state and local governments, as it does on
Congress.

Quoting Justice Sanders, "Lower courts need not wait for the Supreme Court
the Constitution is the rule of all courts both state and federal judiciaries
wield power to strike down unconstitutional government acts."

The Sanders opinion was issued February 18, 2010 and its significance quickly
registered with gun rights organizations and activists across the map. For
example, the National Shooting Sports Foundation hailed the ruling. NSSF Senior
Vice President and General Counsel Lawrence G. Keane called it "a welcome
development and victory for the rights of law-abiding firearms owners."

This state high court opinion, among other things, effectively "puts on
notice" anti-gun groups in the Evergreen
State that their
continued efforts to impair the rights of legally-armed citizens will face not
only growing legislative resistance, but intense legal scrutiny. Though not
binding on other states, it clears a path for other state supreme courts to
follow.

Despite its brevity at only 24 pages, Justice Sanders' opinion - which was
co-signed by five of his colleagues, including Chief Justice Barbara A. Madsen
- thoroughly and proactively debunks any suggestion that the authors of Article
1, Section 24 of the Washington State Constitution did not mean specifically
what they wrote: "The right of the individual citizen to bear arms in
defense of himself, or the state, shall not be impaired, but nothing in this
section shall be construed as authorizing individuals or corporations to
organize, maintain or employ an armed body of men."

Perhaps Justice Sanders put it best when he noted, "This right is
necessary to an Anglo-American regime of ordered liberty and fundamental to the
American scheme of justice."

The Second Amendment Foundation (www.saf.org)
is the nations oldest and largest tax-exempt education, research, publishing
and legal action group focusing on the Constitutional right and heritage to
privately own and possess firearms. Founded in 1974, The Foundation has grown
to more than 650,000 members and supporters and conducts many programs designed
to better inform the public about the consequences of gun control. SAF has
previously funded successful firearms-related suits against the cities of Los
Angeles; New Haven, CT; and San Francisco on behalf of American gun owners, a
lawsuit against the cities suing gun makers and an amicus brief and fund for the Emerson case holding the
Second Amendment as an individual right.

What a Den of Thieves.....

2010-03-30T19:17:00.001-06:00

Here is some good information:

Pretty good summary of what is known - how much more is hidden?

$34,000:

The amount of federal taxes that Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner (D ) failed to pay during his employment at the International Monetary Fund despite receiving extra compensation and explanatory brochures that described his tax liabilities.

True: http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2009/01/timothy_geithner_...

$75,000:

The amount of money that the head of the powerful tax-writing committee, Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY),was forced to report on his taxes after the discovery that he had not reported income from a Dominican Republic rental
property. His excuses for the failure started with blaming his wife, then his accountant and finally the fact that he didn't speak Spanish.

True http://www.nypost.com/seven/09102008/news/regionalnews/rangels_span...

$93,000:

The INCREASE in the amount of petty cash each of our Congressional representatives voted to givethemselves in January 2009 during the height of an economic meltdown. That's a $40 + million INCREASE!

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-recession-congress-gi... See video here from Fox

$133,900:

The amount Fannie Mae "invested" in Chris Dodd (D-CT), head of the powerful Senate Banking Committee, presumably to repel oversight of the GSE prior to its meltdown. Said meltdown helped touch off the current economic crisis. In only a few years time, Fannie also "invested" over $105,000 in then-Senator Barack Obama.

True: http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/07/top-senate-recipients-of-fa...

$140,000:

The amount of back taxes and interest that Cabinet nominee Tom Daschle (D) was forced to cough up after the vetting process revealed significant, unexplained tax liabilities.

True: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123335984751235247.html?mod=googlen... Wall Street Journal

$356,000:

The approximate amount of income and deductions that Daschle (D) was forced to report on his amended 2005 and 2007 tax returns after being caught cheating on his taxes. This includes $255,256 for the use of a car service, $83,333 in unreported income, and $14,963 in charitable contributions.

True: http://online..wsj.com/article/SB123335984751235247.html?mod=google... Wall Street Journal

$800,000:

The amount of "sweetheart" mortgages Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) received from Countrywide Financial , the details for which he has refused to release details despite months of promises to do so.. Countrywide was once the nation's largest mortgage lender and linked to Government-Sponsored Entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their meltdown precipitated the current financial crisis. Just days ago in Pennsylvania , Countrywide was forced to pay $150,000,000 in mortgage assistance following "a state investigation that concluded that Countrywide relaxed its underwriting standards to sell risky loans to consumers who did not understand them and could not afford them."

True: http://rightvoices.com/2008/08/21/more-sweetheart-loan-details-on-s...

$1,000,000:

The estimated amount of donations by Denise Rich, wife of fugitive Marc Rich, to Democrat interests and the William J. Clinton Foundation in an apparent quid pro quo deal that resulted in a pardon for Mr. Rich. The pardon was reviewed and blessed by Obama Attorney General and then Deputy AG Eric Holder, despite numerous requests by government officials to turn it down.

True: http://articles.latimes.com/2008/nov/20/nation/na-holder20

$12,000,000:

The amount of TARP money provided to community bank OneUnited despite the fact that it did not qualify for funds, and was "under attack from its regulators for allegations of poor lending practices and executive-pay abuses." It turns out that Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), a key contributor to the Fannie Mae meltdown, just happens to be married to one of the bank's former directors.

True: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123258284337504295.html Wall Street Journal

$23,500,000:

The upper range of net worth Rep. Allan Mollohan (D-WV) accumulated in four years time according to The Washington Post through earmarks of "tens of millions of dollars to groups associated with his own business partners."

True: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/14/AR2...Washington Post

$2,000,000,000:

($2 billion) the approximate amount of money that House Appropriations Chairman David Obey (D-WI) is earmarkingrelated to his son's lobbying efforts. The son, Craig Obey, is "a top lobbyist for the nonprofit group" that would receive a roughly $2 billion component of the "Stimulus" package.

True: http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/a_plan_for_stimulus_money_nati...

and this as a list of these related stories: http://search.yahoo.com/404handler?src=news&+++%0A+fr%3D404_new...

$3,700,000,000:

($3.7 billion) not to be outdone, this is the estimated value of various defense contracts awarded to a company controlled by the husband of Rep. Diane Feinstein (D-CA). Despite an obvious conflict-of-interest as "a member of the Military Construction Appropriations subcommittee, Sen. Feinstein voted for appropriations worth billions to her husband's firms."

True: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2...

$4,190,000,000:

($4.19 billion) the amount of money in the so-called "Stimulus" package devoted to fraudulent voter registration ACORN group under the auspices of "Community Stabilization Activities". ACORN is currently the subject of a RICO suit in Ohio .

True: http://www.ocregister.com/articles/stimulus-economy-percent-2295331...

$1,646,000,000,000 ($1.646 trillion):

The approximate amount of annual United States exports endangered by the "Stimulus" package, which provides a "Buy American" stricture. According to international trade experts, a "US-EU trade war looms" which could result in a worldwide economic depression reminiscent of that touched off by the protectionist Smoot-Hawley Act.

True: http://www.asiaing.com/2008-national-export-strategy-the-new-global...

and http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/01/022685.php

Background: Smmot-Hawley Act: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot-Hawley_Tariff_Act

It's becoming a culture of corruption and stupidity. In addition, these folks appear to be above the law.

All of the aforementioned are still in office, living like the royalty they think they are.

Remember: This all happened in just theFIRST QUARTER of 2009, folks!

Our Long National Obamacare Nightmare is Just Beginning.........

2010-03-30T19:09:00.000-06:00

If you are tired of our nation's year-long health care debate and you were hoping that the passage of President Barack Obama's health care bill would settle anything, then here is some bad news for you: the real fight is just getting started. Starting today, a coalition of leftist groups will sink millions of dollars into television advertising and astroturf events selling the plan to the American people. But as a Washington Post poll conducted after passage last week shows, the Obama administration and their leftist allies face a steep climb.

The top line numbers are bad but not daunting for the pro-Obamacare forces: 50% of Americans oppose the changes in the new law while 46% support them. But the numbers also show that most Americans believe the new law will cause "the overall health care system in this country" to get worse, "the quality of the health care you receive" to get worse, and "your health insurance coverage" to get worse. The poll also shows that most Americans believe the law will weaken Medicare and that there is "too much government involvement in the nation's health care system." And strong majorities of Americans believe Obamacare will increase the federal budget deficit (65%), increase "your health care costs" (55%), and increase "overall costs of health care in this country" (60%). The American people are right on all counts. And if the events of last week are any indication, these beliefs will only harden over time.

Pitching his failed stimulus plan back in February of last year, President Obama told a factory in East Peoria, Illinois, "So what's happening at this company tells us a larger story about what's happening with our nation's economy, because, in many ways, you can measure America's bottom line by looking at Caterpillar's bottom line." well, Caterpillar was quick to inform the markets exactly what Obamacare meant for its bottom line. Caterpillar announced that Obamacare would raise its insurance costs by at least 20 percent - or more than $100 million - just in the first year of the health-care overhaul program. And Caterpillar was not alone. Other Fortune 500 firms quickly followed suit announcing Obamacare hits to their bottom line including: Deere & Co., $150 million; AK Steel, $31 million; 3M, $90 million; Valero Energy, $20 million; and AT&T, $1 billion. The consulting firm Towers Watson tells the Wall Street Journal that the total hit this year will reach nearly $14 billion. America 's employers simply can't sustain losses like these, so many of these companies, including Verizon, have informed their employees to expect significant changes to their current health care benefits.

The leftist majorities in Congress were incensed that America's employers would dare warn their investors about the costs of Obamacare at the same time as the Obama administration's national sales pitch was set to begin. So using the full force of the federal government to bully and harass America's job creators, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) sent letters to the CEOs of Deere, Caterpillar, Verizon, and AT&T demanding all documents "from January 1, 2009, through the present" regarding "any analyses related to the projected impact of health care reform" and "any documents, including e-mail messages, sent to or prepared or reviewed by senior company officials related to the projected impact of health care reform." Waxman intends to haul these CEOs in front of the Subcommitte on Oversight and Investigations, which just happens to be chaired by Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), for a hearing April 21st.

While it is unfortunate that the left in Congress believes our nation's business leaders' time is best spent being browbeaten by congressmen for not doing more to support their policy preferences, the American public should look forward to these hearings. The more information the American public is given about Obamacare, the more they will oppose it. The more they oppose it, the easier it will be to repeal it. We have a long road ahead of us, but eventually the Obamacare nightmare will end.

WA SUPREME COURT JUSTICE RICHARD SANDERS AUTHORS SIGNIFICANT GUN RIGHTS RULING

2010-03-06T16:44:00.000-07:00

By Alan M. Gottlieb

Executive Vice President

Second Amendment Foundation

The Washington State Supreme Court has issued a precedent-setting opinion in the case of State v. Christopher William Sieyes which holds that the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution's Bill of Rights "applies to the states via the Fourteenth Amendment"

This outstanding opinion was authored by Justice Richard B. Sanders, a Supreme Court veteran who clearly understands the history of both the state and federal constitutional right to keep and bear arms. Perhaps what makes the Sanders opinion so remarkable is that it places the Washington Supreme Court ahead of the United States Supreme Court in recognition that the U.S. Constitution's recognition of the right to keep and bear arms applies to all citizens, and should also place limits on state and local governments, as it does on Congress.

Quoting Justice Sanders, "Lower courts need not wait for the Supreme Court the Constitution is the rule of all courts both state and federal judiciaries wield power to strike down unconstitutional government acts."

The Sanders opinion was issued February 18, 2010 and its significance quickly registered with gun rights organizations and activists across the map. For example, the National Shooting Sports Foundation hailed the ruling. NSSF Senior Vice President and General Counsel Lawrence G. Keane called it "a welcome development and victory for the rights of law-abiding firearms owners."

This state high court opinion, among other things, effectively "puts on notice" anti-gun groups in the Evergreen State that their continued efforts to impair the rights of legally-armed citizens will face not only growing legislative resistance, but intense legal scrutiny. Though not binding on other states, it clears a path for other state supreme courts to follow.

Despite its brevity at only 24 pages, Justice Sanders' opinion - which was co-signed by five of his colleagues, including Chief Justice Barbara A. Madsen - thoroughly and proactively debunks any suggestion that the authors of Article 1, Section 24 of the Washington State Constitution did not mean specifically what they wrote: "The right of the individual citizen to bear arms in defense of himself, or the state, shall not be impaired, but nothing in this section shall be construed as authorizing individuals or corporations to organize, maintain or employ an armed body of men."

Perhaps Justice Sanders put it best when he noted, "This right is necessary to an Anglo-American regime of ordered liberty and fundamental to the American scheme of justice."

World Events

2010-03-05T11:21:00.002-07:00

U.S.: PETRAEUS EXPANDS MCCHRYSTAL'S COMMAND IN AFGHANISTAN...The United States' top commander in Afghanistan, Gen. StanleyMcChrystal, has been given expanded authority, U.S. Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus said March 4, Reuters reported. Petraeus saidhe has ordered that "all U.S. forces, less a handful, be placed underGen. McChrystal's" operational control.........BRIEF: U.S. CONGRESS COMMITTEE DECLARES ARMENIAN KILLINGS GENOCIDE Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news...A U.S. Congressional panel voted Mar 4 in favor of a resolution to declare the killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915 a genocide. The vote by the House Foreign Affairs Committee is nota binding measure, and the bill will be sent to the full House ofRepresentatives for consideration. This resolution is a highlypoliticized issue, with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu statingthat a vote in favor of recognizing genocide would harm ties betweenTurkey and the United States and that Turkey would most likely recallits diplomats to United States should it pass. Indeed, these resolutionvotes occur annually in such congressional panels but the resolution hasyet to pass through the House of Representatives. Turkey is oftremendous geopolitical importance to the United States, havingsignificant leverage over key issues such as the war in Iraq and aresurgent Russia. The vote could also have significant impact onnegotiations to normalize ties between Turkey and Armenia, in whichprotocols have been drawn up but have yet to be passed by eithercountry's parliaments. While there are complications to these protocolssuch as Azerbaijan's issue over Nagorno Karabakh, if the genocide votepasses these protocols will be even less likely to be passed by Turkey.....PAKISTAN: PM TO ADDRESS NATION..Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani is scheduled on the eveningof March 5 to address his nation about the proposed constitutionalamendments the government plans to introduce in the parliament, DunyaNews reported March 4. Gilani is expected to explain the progress of theparliament's Constitutional Reforms Committee. Also, Gilani reportedlywill address the nation by radio on the first Friday of every month totalk about government policies......TURKEY: U.S. FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE'S MEASURE CONDEMNEDThe Turkish Prime Ministry's press office made an announcement March 4saying that Turkey regrets the U.S. Foreign Affairs Committee'sresolution to declare the killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915a genocide. Also, Turkey recalled Turkish Ambassador to the UnitedStates Namik Tan to Ankara for talks. The Turkish statement in responseto the Foreign Affairs Committee's vote, said "such a decision wouldnegatively impact our work which we conduct on a large agenda with theUnited States, and points out lack of a strategic vision."IRAQ: 4 GUARDS OF NINEWA GOVERNOR ARRESTEDFour guards of Ninewa Governor Atheel al-Nejeifi were arrested March 4by an Iraqi army force east of Mosul, Aswat al-Iraq reported, citing apolice source. The army force took the guards to the Iraqi army's 2ndDivision headquarters in Mosul, the source said.U.S.: DEALING WITH AFGHAN CORRUPTION 'NUMBER ONE OBJECTIVE' - MCCHRYSTALU.S. top commander in Afghanistan Gen. Stanley McChrystal said March 4that putting corruption in Afghanistan "front and center" might be his"number one objective," Reuters reported. McChrystal said, "We can fightthe insurgency, we can defeat the forces of the insurgency, the groundforces and whatnot. But if we don't have effective governance, crediblegovernance, then you don't defeat the cause of the insurgency."SINGAPORE: A THREAT AGAINST MALACCA SHIPPINGThe Singapore Shipping Association on Feb. 4 publicized a warning of thepotential for attacks against oil tankers in the Strait of Malacca itreceived from the Singapore Navy Information Fusion Center. An advisorylater disseminated by the Singapore Navy requested that oil tankerstransiting the Strait of Malacca increase security measures, inparticular watching out for small, suspicious craft like dinghies andspeedboats and increase communications to other vessels transiting thestrait to maintain situational awareness. The International MaritimeBureau's Piracy Reporting Center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, received asimilar alert March 1 from a "foreign intelligence agency."Southeast Asian militant groups like Abu Sayyaf periodically havepreviously threatened to target maritime vessels.The heavy maritime traffic and shallow waters of the Strait of Malaccamakes for congestion that puts larger ships at a higher risk of beingattacked by smaller boats than in the open sea. The combination of anestablished militant presence, this vulnerability and the strategicimportance of the Strait of Malacca to global energy supply make anattack in the strait a top concern for governments in the region andaround the world. Given this, intelligence regarding threats is nothandled lightly. In fact, the Singapore Navy Information Fusion Centerwas established in April 2009 specifically to collect and distributeintelligence on the threat against maritime traffic in and around theStrait of Malacca.Few specific details about the origin of the threat have been released,but upon closer investigation, STRATFOR learned of a series of Webpostings on the al Qaeda forum Al-Falluja in late December 2009 thatincluded calls from members linked to al Qaeda to target ships in thePersian Gulf, pictures of U.S. naval ships, and diagrams of the USSEnterprise aircraft carrier.Such photos and diagrams are not necessarily enough to allow asuccessful attack against a well-protected warship, but combined withthe right materials, it could be effective against a less-protectedvessel such as an oil tanker. Later in January, al Qaeda in the ArabianPeninsula deputy commander Said al-Shihri outlined a plan to take overthe strait of Bab el-Mandab between Yemen and Eritrea. While not a veryplausible strategy, the statement does reflect an al Qaeda interest intargeting strategic waterways. These threats could very well beunrelated and independent of each other, but they possibility they arelinked warrants further investigation.SLOVENIA, SERBIA, CROATIA: LEADERS TO MEETSlovenian Prime Minister Borut Pahor, Serbian President Boris Tadic andCroatian Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor are scheduled to meet March 5 inPtuj, Slovenia, for informal talks in preparation of the March 20conference on the Western Balkans organized by Slovenia and Croatia, B92reported March 4.U.S.: AID TO HONDURAS TO BE RESTORED - CLINTONU.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said March 4 that she has sent aletter to the U.S. Congress "notifying them that we will be restoringaid to Honduras," AFP reported. Following the June 2009 ouster ofHonduran President Manuel Zelaya, U.S. President Barack Obama'sadministration suspended more than $30 million in aid to Honduras.IRAN: NEW U.N. SANCTIONS SHOULD BE IMPOSED - BRITISH ENVOYSpeaking to the U.N. Security Council on March 4, British U.N. envoyMark Lyall Grant said new sanctions against Iran should be "be smart andeffective" and should "target areas with an impact on the regime'spolicy calculations," adding the sanctions should show that "theinternational community is united behind a diplomatic resolution toIran's nuclear issue, and stave off any pre-emptive moves by others toresolve this issue by other means," AFP reported. The United States'ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, encouraged the council toconsider more measures to "hold the government of Iran accountable."EU: A MESSAGE TO THE EUROZONEFollowing a decision by the European Central Bank's (ECB) governingcouncil to maintain interest rates at a historic low of 1 percent, ECBPresident Jean-Claude Trichet provided more details March 4 on thebank's apparent unwinding of liquidity support for the eurozone. To whatextent the ECB intends to continue on this path is unclear; what iscertain is that the bank wants to send a clear message to the monetary bloc.Trichet announced at a press conference that the final six-monthoperation to provide unlimited liquidity, scheduled for March 31, wouldnot use a fixed rate of 1 percent but would instead be "indexed" --meaning that the rate would rise based on what the ECB does withinterest rates. Trichet also announced that for the next three-monthliquidity operation on April 28, banks would have to competitively bidfor a set amount of liquidity instead of receiving an unlimited amount(for eligible collateral) at a fixed rate of 1 percent.However, the ECB will continue to provide unlimited liquidity in its one-month and one-week operations until at least Oct. 12. Additionally, theECB intends to loan some of the covered bonds it has purchased duringthe economic crisis back to eurozone banks, providing them withadditional collateral with which to draw liquidity from the ECB. Thismeans that demand for government bonds will continue to be propped up byliquidity provisions, which will continue to help troubled eurozonecountries such as Greece.If anything, the March 4 announcement shows the ECB is continuing tounwind its liquidity support but that the eventual exit will be highlynuanced and contingent on developments within the eurozone, particularlythose related to sovereign-debt issues in Southern Europe. While it isunlikely the bank would knowingly change its liquidity policy in such away as to endanger the eurozone financial system, it is clear that theECB is urging eurozone banks to begin thinking about alternative sourcesof funding, which means eurozone governments should do so as well.PAKISTAN: TALKS WITH INDIA AT FOREIGN SECRETARY LEVEL NOT ENOUGHWhile India has thus far expressed interest in engaging Pakistan only atthe foreign secretary level and in discussing other issues at theworking level, Pakistan has wanted to the process to go beyond this,Pakistan's Foreign Office spokesman, Abdul Basit, said March 4, Geo TVreported. Basit said it was pointless to have talks for the sake ofhaving talks, and he said further discussions at the foreign secretarylevel alone would serve no purpose.U.S.: SHOTS FIRED AT PENTAGON, TWO POLICE INJUREDAt least three individuals, including two Pentagon Force ProtectionAgency officers, were shot at about 6:30 p.m. EST when shots were firedat the Pentagon Metro Station, which is just outside the Pentagon's mainentrance, The Washington Post reported March 4. At least two of thevictims were alert and conscious while being transported to a nearbyhospital. One person is in custody, and the Pentagon metro station hasbeen closed.U.S.: PENTAGON RELEASES STATEMENT ABOUT SHOOTINGA statement released by the Pentagon regarding the metro entranceshooting said that an unknown suspect fired at two Pentagon ForceProtection Agency (PFPA) officers who returned fire on the suspect. Theofficers' injuries do not appear to be life threatening, but thecondition of the suspect -- who is in custody -- is unknown. AllPentagon entrances were briefly secured, but have since been reopenedsave for the metro entrance. The incident is under investigation, andmore details will be released when available.Copyright 2010 Stratfor.

More World News---04 March 2010

2010-03-04T18:00:00.000-07:00

KAZAKHSTAN, ISRAEL: PRESIDENTS DISCUSS BILATERAL RELATIONS
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Israeli President Shimon Peres
held a telephone conversation on March 4 regarding the status and
prospects of developing bilateral relations, Kazinform reported citing
President Nazarbayev's press office. The two leaders recognized the
significance of agreements, including the creation of a joint high tech
fund, that were reached during Peres' prior visit to Kazakhstan.

GEORGIA: A NEW MILITARY STRATEGY
Summary
The Georgian government is undertaking a comprehensive review of the
country's military, taking into account lessons learned in -- and
circumstances created by -- the Russo-Georgian war of 2008. Georgia's
strategy will focus on improving its own military abilities while moving
toward membership in NATO.

Analysis
Georgia is conducting a comprehensive review of its military. The Russo-
Georgian war in August 2008 left Georgia literally broken, with the
secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia declaring formal
independence afterwards. These regions also became home to thousands of
Russian troops (reports vary from 1,000 to 5,000 troops in each region),
and Moscow will be solidifying its presence in each territory by
building permanent military bases there.

The war showed the Georgians that their equipment -- most of which was
from the Soviet era -- simply did not work against the more powerful
Russian military. Furthermore, the pro-Western Georgia, which is a NATO
partner but not an official member, did not get the support from NATO
members that it sorely wanted and needed during the war.

Although the military review is ongoing, the Georgians have already
defined the two areas of focus for their strategy: independent
territorial defense, and political deterrence achieved by moving ever
closer to NATO membership.

For territorial defense, Georgia has determined that, as a matter of
national security and survival, it needs its own defense and deterrence
capability, regardless of its relationship with NATO. For this, it needs
to upgrade its military assets and weaponry, particularly anti-armor and
air defense equipment. The problem with this is that the top three
sellers of military equipment to Georgia -- Kazakhstan, Ukraine and
Israel -- are all cutting their defense ties to Georgia due to pressure
from Moscow. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- very aware of
Russia's leverage over Iran -- has stated publicly that his country will
stop sending military supplies to Georgia. This was finalized during his
last trip to Moscow in February. While Kazakhstan and Ukraine have not
made such public declarations, STRATFOR sources in Georgia say that
Tbilisi expects these supplies to be cut. This is primarily due to the
recent change to a pro-Russian administration in Ukraine, and Russia's
increased economic pressure and influence in Kazakhstan.

Georgia is therefore looking for alternative weapons suppliers to
rebuild and strengthen its military. Theoretically, the United States
would fill that role. Washington has said that it would never place an
embargo on Tbilisi like other countries have. But Tbilisi is unsure of
the extent to which Washington is willing to provide it with equipment
and training when it really needs it. Georgia is concerned that when
push comes to shove (for example, in another war with Russia), the
United States will not truly support the Georgian military.

The Georgians have also been looking to other NATO members for
assistance. Indeed, Georgia has just begun consultations on this issue
with Poland. Poland and Georgia have created a loose and vague security
pact, but Tbilisi is not sure what exactly will come of it. To Georgia,
Poland is a promising partner because both countries are mistrustful of
Russia's intentions, and Poland has received considerable U.S. military
support as part of Washington's ballistic missile defense plans,
including Patriot missiles and military training and exercises. This is
particularly significant because Poland has made greater strides in
advancing from the post-Soviet period when the Polish military suffered
from many of the same weaknesses the Georgians are still trying to
overcome. The reform of the Polish military and Warsaw's rapid ascension
to NATO membership is exactly what the Georgians aspire to -- and
Tbilisi hopes to learn from Poland's successes and challenges in that
evolution.

As far as other NATO heavyweights, Georgia simply does not trust Germany
or Turkey, as it considers both too close to Moscow. France would have
been a good partner for Georgia, as it is less integrated with Russia in
the energy sphere, and even mediated between Russia and Georgia
following the 2008 war. But the ongoing negotiations between France and
Russia over the sale of Mistral warships to Moscow has left Tbilisi
feeling as if it has been betrayed, and that Paris is just as
untrustworthy as Berlin.

But despite these hurdles, Georgia is following Poland's model. Even
without a formal membership action plan (MAP) extended by NATO, it is
doing everything it can to act as though it does have a MAP and is
working independently to meet NATO standards, cooperating with willing
NATO members bilaterally where possible.

As Georgia completes its comprehensive military review, it will start
shopping around for the weapons and equipment it needs to build up its
territorial defense, and will attempt to clarify the specifics of the
relationships and deals it has with NATO members in hopes of finding
suitors. While it is far from guaranteed that Georgia will secure what
it needs, it will nevertheless do what it can, as it is a matter of
survival for the Georgians in the face of a resurgent and aggressive Russia.

SOMALIA: U.S. CONSIDERS HELPING TRAIN SOMALI MILITARY
Maj. Gen. Richard J. Sherlock, head of plans for the U.S. Africa
Command, said the United States may join a European Union program to
train Somali armed forces, the Washington Post reported March 4.
Sherlock and Ambassador Anthony Holmes of Africa Command's civil-
military affairs office met with EU officials March 4 to discuss ways to
contribute to training Somali forces. The EU plan, which will begin in
May, will involve about 200 military instructors training up to 2,000
Somali troops in Uganda.

TAIWAN: NAVAL VESSEL COLLIDES WITH CHINESE FREIGHTER
A Taiwanese naval vessel collided with a Chinese freighter off the coast
of the island of Kinmen on March 4, Taiwan's Central News Agency
reported. The Chung Pang, a supply ship in the Taiwanese Navy's 151st
Fleet, was traveling from Taiwan to Kinmen in thick fog when it was
involved in a glancing collision with China's Shunlong No. 6, which was
traveling from Zhejiang province to Guangzhou, Guangdong province.
Taiwan's coast guard is investigating the cause of the collision.

GREECE: ECB CHIEF SAYS IMF HELP NOT APPROPRIATE
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said March 4 he did
not think it would be appropriate for the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) to step in to help Greece through its financial crisis, DPA
reported. Trichet said, "I do not trust that it would be appropriate to
have the introduction of the IMF as a supplier of help through standby
or through any kind of such help."

COLOMBIA: 2 ARRESTED IN ALLEGED ASSASSINATION PLOT ON SUPREME COURT JUSTICES
Colombian Attorney General Guillermo Mendoza Diago met March 4 with
members of the Colombian supreme court to discuss a possible attempt on
the lives of three court justices, El Espectador reported. The alleged
plot was discovered by intelligence agents from the attorney general's
office and two suspected hitmen were captured in Bogota, Caracol Radio
reported.

BRIEF: GREEK BOND SALES BEGIN
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
The sale of Greek 10-year bonds valued at a total of 5 billion euros
($6.8 billion) began March 4, with Barclays Capital, HSBC, National Bank
of Greece, Nomura and Piraeus Bank handling the sale, according to the
Greek debt agency. The 10-year bonds are offered at a yield of 6.39
percent, which is 0.29 percent higher than the current bond yield. The
agency also announced on March 4 that Greece would issue 8 billion euros
($10.9 billion) in 5-year notes at a yield of 6.1 percent, a sale led by
Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the
National Bank of Greece. It should be noted that the yield offered on
the 5-year notes is lower than the 6.2 percent yield offered in the
January sale of 8 billion euros ($10.9 billion) worth of 5-year notes.
The sales come after Greece announced another round of austerity
measures March 3 worth 4.8 billion euros ($6.5 billion), a move that was
largely seen as aimed at improving the investor outlook on Greece. It
also comes on the heels of a meeting between the prime minister and
finance minister of Greece with the CEO of Deutsche Bank on Feb. 26,
largely seen as a move to pave the way for Deutsche Bank participation
in Greek bond auctions. The precise bond sale date had not been made
known, although the auction has been awaited for two weeks, and the
rather sudden announcement today seems to indicate that Athens is
looking to complete a prearranged sale to banks with which it has had
negotiations. STRATFOR will continue to monitor the progress of the
auction, but if Athens is selling the bonds to banks that have already
signed off on the offered yield, then we suspect that the sale will go
through. The 13 billion euros ($17.7 billion) worth of bonds will cover
more than half of the 23 billion euros ($31.4 billion) worth of debt
Greece must sell by the end of May due to maturing debt.

COTE D'IVORIE: OPPOSITION NAMES 11 TO UNITY GOVERNMENT
Cote d'Ivoire's opposition named 11 members to the country's unity
government March 4, AP reported. The 28-member Cabinet is made up of 16
ministers from President Laurent Gbagbo's FPI party and former New
Forces rebels; 11 ministers representing opposition parties; and Prime
Minister Guillaume Soro.

ISRAEL: SOME SAY FM IS ON WAY OUT OF POST
Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman may be on his way out of his
position, said an unnamed government minister, and many are not
bothering to call for him to resign, Ynet News reported March 4. Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on the evening of March 3 that
Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party would have to decide about a
replacement of Lieberman, said a prime minister associate.

GREECE: UNION LOOKING AT RESCHEDULING STRIKE
Greece's primary union for public workers, ADEDY, said it is looking at
rescheduling a 24-hour, March 16 strike, to the week of March 8,
Bloomberg reported March 4. The General Confederation of Workers of
Greece's executive met on March 4 to discuss strikes and protests.

PAKISTAN: ARREST MAY BE TIED TO TALIBAN FEUD - MCCHRYSTAL
It is possible the arrest in Pakistan of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was
a result of a feud within the Taliban and purges, said U.S. and NATO in
Afghanistan commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Reuters reported on March 4.

BAHRAIN: SHIITE OPPOSITION CALLS FOR PARLIAMENT TO CHOOSE CABINET
Bahrain's largest Shiite parliamentary bloc is calling for the Cabinet
to be chosen by parliament, rather than the king, creating friction with
Sunni politicians, Khaleej Times reported March 4, citing Reuters
Arabic. The al Wefaq bloc has 17 of 40 seats. The country's national
charter, passed in 2002, makes it clear that Bahrain is to move to a
constitutional monarchy, a senior al Wefaq source said, although there
is no intention to challenge the royal family.

BRIEF: GREEK BOND SALE COMPLETED
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Greece's 5 billion euro ($6.8 billion) 10-year bond sale was
successfully completed on March 4. Total investor demand for the bonds
exceeded 16 billion euros, according to Petros Christodoulou, head of
the Greek debt agency, Bloomberg reported. Greece offered a yield of
6.35 percent on the rates, which was higher than the yield of 6.09
percent on bonds of similar maturity. The return of investor interest
will be a welcome reprieve for Athens, which is dealing with a restive
populace planning strikes for the next two weeks and with a need to
raise another 18 billion euros ($24.6 billion) before the end of May in
order to repay maturing debt. The successful bond auction also comes as
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou departs for Berlin on March 5,
where he will hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Papandreou is still seeking support from the eurozone, but a successful
bond auction will only support Germany's argument that Athens can secure
international funding simply by committing to its austerity measures,
without the help of the eurozone.

CHINA: REFORMING THE STATE-OWNED SECTOR
Summary
China may be developing another organization to assist in reforming its
state-owned enterprises (SOEs), according to media reports. China has
long sought to improve the performance of its SOEs, and already has two
such organizations tasked with conducting reforms. The emergence of this
new group, called the Guoxin Asset Management Corp., underscores the
importance Beijing places on salvaging its SOEs, legacies of the Maoist
era that still hold influence in the country.

Analysis
China's State Council has approved a plan by the State Assets
Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) to create a new asset
management company under its control, called Guoxin Asset Management
Corp., according to reports in Chinese media in recent days. The SASAC
was created in 2003 to play the role of investor on behalf of the
government in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and to manage their reform.
The SASAC was charged with restructuring and consolidating the massive
state-owned sector, responding to demands of both the central government
and the Communist Party on how to govern this sector.

China's economic transformation in recent decades has required it to go
to great pains over SOEs. In the Maoist era, China's industries were
taken over and operated by the state, but this gradually changed as
China sought market-oriented reforms beginning in the 1980s. In the
mid-1990s, after a massive bout of inflation that was fueled in great
part by wasteful SOE spending, the Chinese government under Premier Zhu
Rongji moved to cut down the SOE sector. This resulted in more than 40
million lost jobs, but it helped correct one of China's deepest
structural flaws and paved the way for a surge in private enterprise,
mostly export-oriented manufacturers on the coasts that became the
biggest source of employment in China.

Nevertheless, SOE reform was never finished and China retained a
sprawling state sector that was increasingly uncompetitive and dependent
on subsidies and government-provided credit to survive. Since the
sweeping reforms of the 1990s, SOE reform has moved only incrementally.
Currently, the SASAC has two state asset management companies, the State
Development and Investment Corp. and China Chengtong Group, both of
which were created in 2005 to help consolidate the SOEs. In this reform
process, the goal is ostensibly to separate the profitable units from
the unprofitable ones, with the profitable units spun off and the
unprofitable units subject to mergers and management changes to focus on
the areas in which they are competent.

The advantage of this strategy is that it attempts to salvage productive
sectors from a larger morass of inefficiency, state dependency and
corruption. The disadvantage is that the consolidation process results
in behemoth SOEs that are not well integrated or able to function as a
whole, but that have a greater concentration of political power --
mainly due to their $3.3 trillion worth of sales in 2009, and their role
as major employers -- and are able to preserve aspects of the state
sector from private competition, demand continued public funds for
support, and serve as vehicles for government officials' pet projects,
in turn squeezing private sector development.

A recent emphasis for the SASAC has been ensuring that capital is
allocated efficiently amid the massive increase in bank lending in 2009
and 2010 launched by the central government to stimulate the economy
during the global slowdown. Not only are a number of state-owned assets
mismanaged -- for instance, being directed by government officials
rather than businessmen -- but many, especially on the local level, do
not even have clear managers. The huge infusion of credit nationwide has
likely led to a range of ill-conceived investments (including illegal
speculation in equity and property markets by subsidiaries of SOEs) and
the SASAC is responsible both for supervising these investments and
containing any problems, as well as reporting and demoting corrupt
officials and employees.

It is not clear yet how Guoxin will operate -- some reports claim it
will act like the sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp., but
rather than investing China's foreign exchange reserves, it will handle
domestic investments of assets in the industrial sector. Other accounts
say Guoxin will simply join the other two asset management corporations
overseen by SASAC in consolidating the SOE sector. The number of
centrally controlled SOEs stands at 128, down from 196 when the SASAC
reduction targets were set in 2003. Guoxin is to be responsible for
further consolidation, taking over at least 12 smaller SOEs and helping
the SASAC reach its goal of reducing the number of SOEs to 100 by the
end of 2010, and eventually down to 80.

STRATFOR will continue to watch the developments related to the SASAC's
new creation and overall SOE reform.

CHINA SECURITY MEMO: MARCH 4, 2010
A 'Fake' Alcohol Problem
Chinese media reported Feb. 25 that Jingzhou's Public Security Bureau
cracked down on an illicit alcohol production and sales operation worth
about 17 million yuan ($2.5 million), the biggest ever uncovered in
Hubei province. Earlier, in September 2009, police identified a store in
Jingzhou that was selling alcohol bottled and labeled with popular
Chinese brands such as Wuliangye, Maotai, Shuijingfang and Jiannanchun.
The subsequent investigation revealed that the alcohol had come from
Beijing, Xiangfan and Jingzhou, and originally had been produced in
underground distilleries in Hanyang district and Wuhan. Several suspects
also were arrested in Beijing.

This "fake" alcohol in China is typically low-quality liquor made in
cheap distilleries in western China, although some counterfeiters make
their own bootleg variety or use industrial alcohol (which is not meant
for consumption). The alcohol is put into genuine bottles that the
counterfeiters usually buy from nightclubs. STRATFOR sources say there
is a healthy black market in China for empty alcohol bottles with
genuine labels, which is what really drives this counterfeit industry.
Most producers use real bottles and sometimes reproduced labels, and
sell their counterfeit spirits at a fraction of the price. Retailers and
fencing operations in on the take may also have ties to bigger organized
crime networks.

Many karaoke music-video (KTV) bars and other nightclubs in China will
sell genuinely bottled brands (at KTVs, alcohol is usually purchased by
the bottle instead of by the drink) when customers first arrive and are
more sober. After the customers have consumed a bottle or two, the
counterfeit liquor is served, representing foreign as well as domestic
brands. These bars also are known for what one STRATFOR source calls
"stretching" (a tactic also used in the melamine scandal). The bar owner
will buy a case of genuinely branded liquor (12 bottles), remove 20
percent of the liquor from each bottle and refill the bottles with
denatured alcohol. This yields enough of the branded spirits to create
more than two full bottles of genuine product that can be sold at a
premium. Our sources say as much as 35 percent of the alcohol sold in
some areas of the country is adulterated or counterfeited. And it is a
lucrative industry. As much as $75 per bottle in pure profit can be made
when it is sold as the real thing.

Most of the counterfeit liquor is no more harmful than the brand it is
copying, but in some cases it has blinded or even killed unwitting
consumers. To protect their reputations, the brand-name liquor companies
are quick to investigate distilleries and bars when they find out about
counterfeit operations, often before the police get involved. And the
police are quick to respond in cases where people are poisoned. In most
cases, however, counterfeit alcohol is hard to detect, making it an
enticing and profitable venture for many.

Wage Protests

More than 2,000 assembly-line workers at Taiwanese-owned Lacquer Craft
Manufacturing in Dongguan, Guangdong province, staged a three-day strike
over wages, according to a March 2 media report. The Taiwanese employer
reportedly would not raise the workers' pay after nearby factories
supposedly had increased wages by almost 20 percent. Dongguan's Human
Resources Bureau issued a statement saying that only the provincial
government could decide to raise minimum wages, and they had yet to
announce a new wage level. According to a Lacquer Craft spokeswoman, all
of the workers have since returned.

Dongguan, a city built by China's export market, has been hit
particularly hard by the global economic crisis, and its problems are
now being exacerbated by a growing labor shortage as migrants take
advantage of lower costs and stimulus policies back home, making the
coastal export industries less enticing. Even before the economic
crisis, exporters were working on very slim profit margins -- often
estimated at 3 to 5 percent -- and raising wages could put many who
survived the crisis over the brink. If minimum wages are raised in an
effort to stave off social instability, the government also would likely
have to provide some subsidies to these industries if they want them to
survive.

The current labor shortage gives workers more bargaining power vis-a-vis
their employers, and we can expect further strikes as the central
government and provincial governments continue to discuss wage increases
(this issue is sure to be addressed at the National People's Congress
that begins March 5 in Beijing). Since some wealthy provinces can afford
such hikes while others cannot, the central government will be called to
make up the shortfall or risk having the blame shifted in Beijing's
direction.

Increased Security

In the run-up to the National People's Congress in Beijing, authorities
have tightened security in the metropolitan area, and this has included
preventing "petitioners" from traveling to the city to air their
grievances. According to a media report on March 2, the municipal
governments in Sanhe, Hebei province, and Yongzhou, Hunan province,
issued restrictions to prevent petitioners from traveling to Beijing.
Those who somehow evade local authorities and make the trip are often
monitored after they arrive in the city, either because of a tip by
local officials or by having their ID numbers show up in a police
database linked to hotel and hostel registrations.

An increased security presence has also been noted in Shanghai as
preparations continue for the six-month World Expo, which opens May 1.
Airports and roads, in particular, are being monitored closely. STRATFOR
sources say the Shanghai government is extremely concerned that domestic
terrorists will take advantage of the event to raise their profile.
Perhaps even more worrisome to authorities are localized protests,
especially regarding real estate issues, which could disrupt the smooth
operations of the expo and tarnish Shanghai's image internationally.

Feb. 25

Five people were found dead on a Malaysian ship near Zhuhai, Guangdong
province, on Feb. 21, Chinese media reported. Two were Malaysian crew
members, and the other three were Chinese citizens who had been on the
ship without local government approval. All five died from carbon
monoxide poisoning. The Chinese might have been onboard to smuggle oil
from the ship. The ship's owners claimed the Chinese were there to
collect garbage and metal scraps for recycling.
Baidu, the biggest Internet search engine in China, was fined 50,000
yuan (about $7,000) for intellectual property infringement by a court in
Beijing. Baidu said it would appeal.
A woman in Taizhou, Zhejiang province, was convicted of fraud and
sentenced to death after claiming she was related to a top city official
and obtaining some 470 million yuan (about $69 million) in loans from
people in the region between 2005 and 2008. She spent the money
gambling, paying interest on loans and buying luxury items.
Thirteen people died and five are missing after an explosion at the
Lihua Starch Co. factory in Qinhuangdao, Hebei province. Authorities are
investigating the cause of the blast, which injured another 50 people.
The Ministry of Public Security announced that it had solved 210 online
gambling cases and arrested 918 suspects in a two-week crackdown ending
Feb. 20.
Beijing police arrested 18 suspects connected to an attack on artists in
one of the city's art districts. Eight people were assaulted by thugs
who they believed had been hired by developers while the artists were
guarding the Zhengyang Creative Art Zone to keep it from being demolished.
A report issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said that
crime in China has continued a sharp rise that began in 2007. In 2009,
public security cases increased by about 20 percent.

Feb. 26

A man died at a police station on Feb. 21 in Lushan, Henan province, and
police are suspected of torturing him, Chinese media reported. Early
reports indicated that the prisoner died from drinking hot water or
water out of an officer's bottle that contained "medicine." But the
man's family took photographs of his body that showed a hole in his
head, that his nipples had been cut off and that his genitals had been
damaged. Two days later four policemen were arrested, and the chief and
deputy chief were dismissed.
Fuzhou police announced they had solved an illegal emigration case and
detained 27 suspects in Fujian province. Some 80 individuals had been
charged a fee of about $80,000 each for help in illegally emigrating to
the United States and Europe over the past year.
Fujian provincial police announced they have stopped issuing passports
to residents of 19 villages near Fuzhou, an area considered a hotbed for
illegal emigration. Police also announced they have enhanced customs
controls and increased measures to detect human smuggling on boats.
Two men suspected of making at least 10 bomb threats to Shanghai
businesses were arrested. One man called supermarkets and threatened to
detonate bombs on the premises if he was not paid, recently asking for
25,000 yuan (about $3,600) from one grocery store. Another man was
arrested after calling Shanghai police from the northeastern city of
Yingkou, in Liaoning province, threatening to bomb Shanghai's Hongqiao
International Airport.
Jieyang police in Guangdong province shut down a counterfeit medicine
operation and arrested two suspects. Seized in the raid were 21 cartons
of fake repaglinide tablets, production equipment and packaging.
Repaglinide is a drug used for the treatment of type II diabetes.
Police in Qinghai province arrested two suspects and seized one gun
connected to an armed robbery, Chinese media reported. On Feb. 23, the
two men allegedly shot two people in a tobacco and alcohol store in
Ping'an and stole 1,000 yuan (about $147). Police arrested the suspects
the next day, and the suspects admitted to the crime.
Three people beat a police officer to death Jan. 31 after an argument in
a karaoke club in Harbin, Heilongjiang province, Chinese media reported.
Police announced they have arrested six suspects and one other suspect
is still at large.
An unidentified group of people demolished a two-story building that was
part of the Qingsong Primary School in Daye, Hubei province. The group
broke into the campus and used a bulldozer to destroy the building.
Three people were convicted of human trafficking and sentenced to four
to six years in prison by a court in Shanghai. A Chinese farmer from
Yunnan befriended two teenage Laotian girls while working in Laos and
coerced them into traveling to Wuhu, Anhui province, where he was
planning to sell them as wives. He then contacted two other people for
help in finding a buyer. They were planning to sell the girls for 30,000
yuan (about $4,400) each.
In a recent crackdown on aluminum exporters, authorities have accused
many Chinese companies of violating customs regulations and tax laws,
Chinese media reported. Shanghai customs officials are investigating
more than a dozen companies, and some have been forced to close down.
Manufacturers are claiming the inquiry is politically motivated and
results from a need for more tax revenue.
Five urban management officials went on trial for beating a street
vendor in Shanghai who ended up in a coma. The officials were in the
process of shutting down illegal street vendors when the fight occurred.

Feb. 27

Kunming police in Yunnan province arrested a Tanzanian man in the
airport who was suspected of drug smuggling, Chinese media reported. The
man later confessed that he had swallowed packets (according to the
media report) that contained 1,540 grams of heroin before flying from
Dar-es-Salaam to Kunming through Bangkok.

Feb. 28

Guangdong provincial border police in Shenzhen said they stopped two
smuggling attempts overnight. In one, they investigated a suspicious car
from which suspects had fled and found 85 boxes of cigarettes they
believed were being smuggled to Hong Kong. In the second case, they
seized a boat that was carrying 1,800 computer hard drives, 6,000 mobile
display screens and memory cards, all worth 1 million yuan (about $147,000).
An explosion during a New Year's celebration killed 20 people and
injured 50 in a village near Shenzhen, Guangdong province. The explosion
was caused by fireworks at a wealthy family's home and damaged a number
of nearby houses.

March 1

Border police in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan province, arrested a man carrying
nearly 5 kilograms of heroin at the Chinese-Myanmar border. A female
suspect involved in the smuggling was later arrested.

March 2

A bomb exploded on a minibus in Luxi, Yunnan province, leaving the
suspected bomber dead and 11 others injured. The suspect formerly worked
as an explosives technician before being convicted of drug trafficking
in 2000. He was believed to have had more than 100,000 yuan (about
$14,700) in gambling debts before he made the bomb from ammonium
nitrate. None of the injuries were life-threatening.
The trial of two sisters who are accused of making more than 100 million
yuan (about $14.7 million) by forcing hundreds of woman into
prostitution began in Chongqing. They are accused of operating nine
beauty salons, teahouses and hotels for the purpose of prostitution
since 1994. Many of the prostitutes were threatened or beaten, and the
sisters' 29-person gang paid off government officials to keep the
businesses open.
Dalian customs officials in Yunnan province arrested a nervous-looking
Chinese man after discovering that he was smuggling gall bladders from
endangered species of deer and trying to fly the organs to Seoul, South
Korea. Such animal products are commonly used in traditional Asian medicine.
Beijing police announced that they have seized 16,000 illegal knives
since 2007. Knife dealers are required to register with police and
record buyers' identities.
Chongqing ended its eight-month crackdown on organized crime and
authorities announced the arrests of 3,348 suspects. Liu Guanglei,
China's top party official overseeing law enforcement, said that 63
gangs were broken up during the operation.
Three officials of Guangxi's Human Resources Department were suspended
and another 18 suspects were detained in a scandal involving a civil
service exam. More than 1,500 police officers have been investigating
the case in which the contents of the exam were leaked. More than 900
recent test-takers have been questioned in the matter.
An official from the Guangxi Tobacco Monopoly Bureau was relieved of
his post after his diaries were posted online. They contained notes
about sexual acts with some of his colleagues as well as records of
bribes he had received. The case is currently under investigation.
A man turned himself into police in Gaoyang, Hebei province, after six
of his family members were found dead. They had arrived in the town
looking for work and were renting a home there.

Copyright 2010 Stratfor.

.Be sure you read the whole thing, to get the impact...... One fallen Soldier....Paying Respects

2010-03-04T15:29:00.000-07:00

Written by a Captain for a major airline in the U.S.A.

He writes:

Before a flight, my lead flight attendant came to me and said, "We have an H.R. on this flight." (H.R. stands for human remains.)

"Are they military?" I asked.

'Yes.'

'Is there an escort?' I asked.

'Yes, I already assigned him a seat'.

'Would you please tell him to come to the flight deck. You can board him early," I said.

A short while later, a young army sergeant entered the flight deck. He was the image of the perfectly dressed soldier. He introduced himself
and I asked him about his soldier. The escorts of these fallen
soldiers talk about them as if they are still alive and still with us.

'My soldier is on his way back to Virginia,' he said. He proceeded to answer my questions, but offered no words on his own.

I asked him if there was anything I could do for him and he told me no.

I told him that he had the toughest job in the military and that I appreciated the work that he does for the families of our fallen
soldiers.

The first officer and I got up out of our seats to shake his hand as he left the flight deck to find his seat.

We completed our preflight checks, pushed back and performed an uneventful departure.

About 30 minutes into our flight I received a call from the lead flight attendant in the cabin. 'I just found out the family of the
soldier we are carrying, is on board,’ he said. He then proceeded to
tell me that the father, mother, wife and 2-year old daughter were
escorting their son, husband, and father home.

The family was upset because they were unable to see the container that the soldier was in before we left. We were on our way to a major hub at
which the family was going to wait four hours for the connecting flight
home to Virginia.

The father of the soldier told the flight attendant that knowing his son was below him in the cargo compartment and being unable to see him was
too much for him and the family to bear. He had asked the flight
attendant if there was anything that could be done to allow them to
see him upon our arrival.

The family wanted to be outside by the cargo door to watch the soldier being taken off the airplane. I could hear the desperation
in the flight attendants voice when he asked me if there was anything I
could do.

'I'm on it', I said. I told him that I would get back to him.

Airborne communication with my company normally occurs in the form of email like messages. I decided to bypass this system and contact my flight
dispatcher directly on a secondary radio. There is a radio operator in
the operations control center who connects you to the telephone of the
dispatcher. I was in direct contact with the dispatcher. I explained
the situation I had on board with the family and what it was the family
wanted. He said he understood and that he would get back to me.

Two hours went by and I had not heard from the dispatcher. We were going to get busy soon and I needed to know what to tell the family. I sent a text message asking for an update. I saved the return message from the
dispatcher and this following is the text:

'Captain, sorry it has taken so long to get back to you. There is policy on this now and I had to check on a few things. Upon your arrival a dedicated
escort team will meet the aircraft. The team will escort the family to
the ramp and plane side. A van will be used to load the remains with a
secondary van for the family. The family will be taken to their
departure area and escorted into the terminal where the remains can be
seen on the ramp. It is a private area for the family only. When the
connecting aircraft arrives, the family will be escorted onto the ramp
and plane side to watch the remains being loaded for the final leg home.

Captain, most of us here in flight control are veterans. Please pass our condolences on to the family.

Thanks.'

I sent a message back telling flight control thanks for a good job. I printed out the message and gave it to the lead flight attendant to
pass on to the father. The lead flight attendant was very thankful
and told me, 'You have no idea how much this will mean to them.'

Things started getting busy for the descent, approach and landing. After landing, we cleared the runway and taxied to the ramp area. The ramp is
huge with 15 gates on either side of the alleyway. It is always a
busy area with aircraft maneuvering every which way to enter and exit.
When we entered the ramp and checked in with the ramp controller, we
were told that all traffic was being held for us.

'There is a team in place to meet the aircraft,' we were told. It looked like it was all coming together, then I realized that once we turned the
seat belt sign off, everyone would stand up at once and delay the
family from getting off the airplane. As we approached our gate, I
asked the copilot to tell the ramp controller we were going to stop
short of the gate to make an announcement to the passengers. He did
that and the ramp controller said, 'Take your time.'

I stopped the aircraft and set the parking brake. I pushed the public address button and said, 'Ladies and gentleman, this is your Captain
speaking. I have stopped short of our gate to make a
special announcement.’

‘We have a passenger on board who deserves our honor and respect. His name is Private XXXXXX, a soldier who recently lost his life. Private
XXXXXX is under your feet in the cargo hold. Escorting him today is
Army Sergeant XXXXXXX. Also, on board are his father, mother, wife,
and daughter. Your entire flight crew is asking for all passengers to
remain in their seats to allow the family to exit the aircraft first.
Thank you.'

We continued the turn to the gate, came to a stop and started our shutdown procedures. A couple of minutes later, I opened the cockpit door. I
found the two forward flight attendants crying, something you just do
not see. I was told that after we came to a stop, every passenger on
the aircraft stayed in their seats and waited for the family to exit
the aircraft.

When the family got up and gathered their things, a passenger slowly started to clap his hands. Moments later more passengers joined in and
soon the entire aircraft was clapping. Words of 'God Bless You', ‘I'm
sorry’, ‘thank you’, ‘be proud’, and other kind words were uttered to
the family as they made their way down the aisle and out of the
airplane.

They were escorted down to the ramp to finally be with their loved one.

Many of the passengers disembarking thanked me for the announcement I had made. They were just words, I told them. I could say them over and
over again, but nothing I say will bring back that brave soldier.

I respectfully ask that all of you reflect on this event and the sacrifices that millions of our men and women have made to ensure our
freedom and safety in these United States of AMERICA.

World Political News today

2010-03-04T15:08:00.000-07:00

U.S.: NEW IRAN SANCTIONS DRAFT CIRCULATED

U.N. Security Council diplomats said the United States is circulating a
draft resolution of new, tougher sanctions against Iran that concentrate
on the banking, shipping and insurance sectors, and is waiting for China
and Russia to signal that they are willing to start negotiating the
measures, The New York Times reported March 4. The proposed sanctions
call for an outright ban on certain transactions, with a focus on the
Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps. The oil industry is not included.
Japan's U.N. Ambassador Yukio Takasu will highlight the vulnerability of
companies to Iran sanctions during a Security Council briefing.

INDIA: MAOISTS GIVE ULTIMATUM
The Maoists have threatened to start a full-scale offensive against the
Indian government if their leader Venkateshwar Reddy, alias Telugu
Deepak, is not released by March 6, the Hindustan Times reported March 4.

PAKISTAN: MILITANTS ATTACK SECURITY CHECKPOINT
A Pakistani military official said about 200 militants with rockets and
automatic weapons attacked a military check post in Pakistan, killing
one soldier and wounding four, Reuters reported March 4. Up to 30
militants were killed in clashes that followed in the Mohmand tribal
region in the northwest. The official said the remaining militants were
being pursued.

AFGHANISTAN: FIVE PAKISTANI WORKERS SHOT DEAD
Five Pakistani construction workers were shot dead in an ambush in
southern Afghanistan, AFP reported March 4. Another Pakistani who was
wounded in the ambush is in a Kandahar hospital. The workers were
ambushed on their way to work, according to Shah Baran, the governor of
Kandahar's Panjwayi district. He said the workers were on their way to a
road construction project in Panjwayi district when they were ambushed
and killed by gunmen. The Pakistanis were believed to have been working
for a Japanese road construction firm, the name of which could not be
immediately confirmed.

SINGAPORE: GROUP PLANNING OIL-TANKER ATTACKS
The Singapore Shipping Association said in an advisory that the
Singapore navy "received indication" that a militant group is planning
attacks on oil tankers in the Malacca Strait, Bloomberg reported March
4. The advisory stated that the militants' intent is probably to achieve
widespread publicity and showcase that it remains a viable group, but
did not name any groups. The advisory added that the information does
not preclude possible attacks on other large vessels with dangerous
cargo. The Singapore navy started "operational coordination" with its
regional partners.

PAKISTAN: MULLAH OMAR KIN HELD IN KARACHI
The son-in-law of Mullah Omar, the prominent Afghan warlord, was
reportedly captured by security agencies in Karachi, ARY News reported
March 4. Motasim Agha Jan was captured when intelligence agencies were
tipped off and conducted a raid on a house in the Ehsan Abad area of
Karachi. Two accomplices were also arrested. All suspects were moved to
an undisclosed location for further investigation.

JAPAN, U.S.: SOFA AGREEMENT WILL BE MODIFIED
Japan told the United States that the current agreement to relocate a
U.S. military base to a less-crowded part of the southern island of
Okinawa will not be upheld, Xinhua reported March 4. Chief Cabinet
Secretary Hirofumi Hirano told U.S. Ambassador John Roos that sticking
to the current plan had "become too difficult politically." Japan is now
considering the option of moving the troops to White Beach in Uruma and
Tsuken Island in the north of the Okinawa prefecture. Prime Minister
Yukio Hatoyama confirmed that Hirano met with Roos, but said no
alternative to the current plan was proposed to the United States.

YEMEN: POLICE ARREST SUSPECTED AL QAEDA CELL
Yemen's Defense Ministry's newspaper stated that police captured an
alleged 11-member al Qaeda cell in a raid on a house in Sanaa, Earth
Times reported March 4. The weekly, named September 26, said the raid
was carried out in the Sawad Hanash neighborhood. The father of one
member of the group was killed in a shootout with police during the
arrest of his son. A policeman was injured in the firefight. The paper
quoted a security source stating that the raid was carried out after
extensive surveillance and reconnaissance of cell member movements.

PAKISTAN: TALIBAN LEADERS WILL NOT BE HANDED OVER
A senior Pakistani official stated that the government decided in
principle not to deliver the Taliban leaders to the Afghan government,
adding that this decision is final, The News International reported
March 4. Official sources said Pakistan provided U.S. operatives with
access to Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, but the interrogation sessions
were held in the presence of Pakistani officials.

CHINA: DIPLOMATIC SOLUTION SOUGHT ON IRAN
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said Beijing believes
diplomatic efforts have not been exhausted and will continue to work
with other parties to push for a settlement to the Iran nuclear issue,
AP reported March 4. Qin said China would continue to work toward the
resumption of talks on the issue and make constructive efforts for a
"proper resolution" of the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and
negotiations.

AFGHANISTAN: FORCES SEIZE 38 TONS OF DRUGS
The Afghan deputy interior minister for counter narcotics said a huge
cache of narcotics weighing 38.5 tons was seized in the poppy-rich
southern province of Helmand, Afghanistan's Pajhwok news agency reported
March 4. The contraband was recovered during separate NATO and Afghan
National Police (ANP) operations in several districts and in Lashkargah.
Six drug traffickers were arrested. The Afghan official hinted at a new
operation to be launched along the Iranian border, the hub of drug
smuggling into the neighboring country. He said Afghan counter narcotics
police and Iranian border police would jointly conduct the offensive.

AFGHANISTAN: ROMANIAN PRESIDENT VISITS
The Romanian Defense Ministry said Romanian President Traian Basescu
arrived in Afghanistan on an unannounced visit to meet Romanian soldiers
fighting there, The News International reported March 4. The Romanian
defense minister accompanied the president.

FRANCE: UNEMPLOYMENT SOARS IN Q4
The French government's statistics office INSEE said the unemployment
rate jumped to 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, the highest
rate in 10 years, DPA reported March 4. That represents more than 2.7
million people who are out of work, INSEE said, adding that if France's
overseas territories are included, the unemployment rate reached 10
percent at the end of last year.

YEMEN: POLICE KILL PROTESTER
A protester was killed and two injured after police opened fire on a pro-
separatist demonstration in the southern province of Lahj, Earth Times
reported March 4. Police were trying to disperse protesters who gathered
outside the local government building in Radfan district. Protesters
tried to raise a flag of the former south Yemen.

BELGIUM: MORE PKK MEMBERS ARRESTED
Belgium police conducted a large scale operation against PKK militants
in five different cities, NTV/MSNBC reported March 4. As part of an anti-
terrorism operation, police arrested 15 senior PKK members, including
head of PKK/Kongre-Gel Zubeyir Aydar, and raided offices of pro-PKK Roj
TV Channel.

BRIEF: GREEK UNIONS TAKE OVER FINANCE MINISTRY
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Communist party-linked labor union PAME occupied the Greek Finance
Ministry building in central Athens on March 4. PAME members unfurled a
banner on top of the Finance Ministry building that read, "Rise up --
everyone in the streets against the anti-popular measures." Meanwhile,
airline workers from Olympic Air occupied the General Accounting Office
and set up barricades in front of the building causing traffic jams in
downtown Athens. Invasion of government ministry offices is a step up in
tactics used by Greek protesters. With a major strike planned for March
16, it should be expected that social unrest continues and potentially
escalates in traditionally restive Greece. This could negatively impact
investor perception of Athens' ability to implement planned austerity
measures, causing the price for servicing its debt to rise.

FINLAND: DOCKWORKERS GO ON STRIKE
Finnish dockworkers went on strike after mediation failed, with the
action expected to affect 80 percent of exports, DPA reported March 4.
Shortages of imported fruit and other fresh produce are anticipated if
the strike drags on. National Conciliator Esa Lonka was unable to
present a compromise proposal between the Transport Workers' Union (AKT)
and the Finnish Port Operators Association. Lonka did not reschedule a
meeting with the parties. The Finnish Forestry Federation estimated the
strike cost at 30 million euros per day.

PORTUGAL: CIVIL SERVANTS STRIKE
Portuguese civil servants went on strike on March 4, and could
potentially close schools, courts and hospitals, AFP reported.
Portuguese unions have warned against more strikes if the government
extends a freeze on civil servant wages after 2010, something the
government has been considering. It was not known how many were expected
to strike, but union officials said the strikes would begin Wednesday
night with trash collectors in four major cities.

POLAND: PM TO VISIT AZERBAIJAN
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will visit Azerbaijan on March 10 to
discuss bilateral and regional cooperation, specifically the Azerbaijani-
Polish cooperation under the EU Eastern Partnership Program, reported
Trend News, citing Polish Ambassador to Azerbaijan Krzysztof Krajewski.

INDONESIA AND THE U.S. EFFORT TO RE-ENGAGE SOUTHEAST ASIA
SEVERAL OFFICERS OF INDONESIA'S ELITE Special Forces Command (Kopassus)
are reportedly in Washington to discuss the resumption of military
training for Indonesia's special forces. U.S. training of Kopassus units
was canceled in the late 1990s amid the chaotic end of the Suharto
regime, and the push for independence by East Timor due to accusations
of human rights abuses by the force. The U.S. Defense Department, State
Department and President Barack Obama's administration are currently
working with Congress and the Indonesians to lift the training ban as
part of a broader effort to re-engage Southeast Asia, particularly
strategically located Indonesia.

A low-key but persistent initiative by the Obama administration has been
the reparation and expansion of economic, political and military ties
with Southeast Asia. Following the end of the Cold War, Southeast Asia
shifted from a simmering battleground between opposing international
forces to an area of economic interest, with minimal strategic concern
for the one remaining superpower. The 1997 Asian economic crisis
interrupted the region's dreams of gaining independent significance and
influence, and with the reduction of economic importance -- and the rise
of other, more strategic issues -- the United States paid little heed to
Southeast Asia. Indonesia not only faced the withdrawal of U.S.
interest, but also additional U.S. pressure that did nothing to halt the
fall of former ally Suharto -- or the loss of East Timor.

As Washington shifted its attention to the rise of international Islamic
militancy, Indonesia mattered in those concerns only so far as it was
prevented from becoming a haven for militants. And for this task,
Washington looked to its Pacific ally Australia to take the lead.
Canberra has long been concerned about Indonesia, its much more populous
neighbor to the north, and the country that both shields Australia from
the rest of Asia and could cut Australian supply lines should relations
deteriorate. For Australia, Indonesia never lost its significance, but
for the United States, Indonesia had fallen to a third-tier issue, at
best -- neither a crisis nor a necessary strategic partner.

"A low-key but persistent initiative by U.S. President Barack Obama's
administration has been the reparation and expansion of economic,
political and military ties with Southeast Asia."

But throughout the first decade of the 21st century, as Washington
focused primarily on South and Southwest Asia, China undertook a re-
examination of its own position and foreign policy. Shifts in China's
economic patterns, which make the country much more dependent upon trade
flows to and from far-flung areas, prompted Beijing to begin expanding
its own political and economic influence, starting in Southeast and
Central Asia. In addition, to protect its longer maritime supply lines,
Beijing began shifts in its naval acquisitions and doctrine, working to
reshape its navy from one of coastal defense to one capable of overseas
deployment and long distance missions.

This expansion of China's sphere of interest, influence and activity has
pushed up against two of the guiding U.S. strategic imperatives --
ensuring that no single great power can arise in the Eurasian landmass,
and ensuring domination of the seas to allow rapid access to distant
locations while minimizing any foreign power's ability to challenge the
U.S. mainland. China is expanding its reach throughout Eurasia via land
and beyond via the sea, and the Straight of Malacca, between Indonesia
and Singapore, is a critical element for Beijing's access to the Indian
Ocean basin. China is far from becoming the dominant power in Eurasia,
and has yet to fundamentally challenge U.S. control of the seas (though
there have been occasional collisions between the two countries'
maritime assets). But Beijing is certainly showing an inclination in
that direction, and Beijing's ultimate capabilities aside, Washington
has taken notice.

During U.S. President George W. Bush's administration, the Defense
Department began the process of trying to lift restrictions against
military cooperation with Indonesia, both to enlist Jakarta's help in
anti-terrorism efforts, and because Indonesia lies astride some of the
most important sea lanes in the world. Indonesia stretches from the
Pacific to the Indian Ocean, and can theoretically control the passage
between the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. The United States
backed the takeover by Suharto in the 1960s due to fears that then-
President Sukarno was flirting with international communism, thus
putting strategic sea lanes at risk of communist control.

While Washington is not looking to facilitate another coup (as it did
with the transition from Sukarno to Suharto), it does want to ensure
that Indonesia does not fall into China's rising sphere of influence.
The United States also wants to prevent the Indonesian state from
collapsing into chaos (as it nearly did with Suharto's ouster),
disrupting sea lanes and providing openings for hostile forces. One of
the critical elements to address is the Indonesian military, which
serves not only a role as national defender, but also as a critical
element to ensure unity and stability across the vast archipelagic
nation. Questions of human rights or Obama's birth certificate aside,
closer U.S. relations with Indonesia serve to shore up Washington's
strategic position in East Asia, and can serve as an element of
constraint to China.

And this goes beyond the military -- Indonesia is also home to the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) secretariat, and
Washington sees a close bilateral relationship with Jakarta as a
critical component of a broader re-engagement with Southeast Asia. The
United States has already reduced friction with ASEAN by lifting
economic restrictions on Cambodia and Laos, and softening its position
on Myanmar. Washington is also about to launch talks on the new Trans-
Pacific Partnership trade agreements, which would strengthen U.S. trade
in Southeast Asia. In the near-term, Southeast Asia continues to rank
low in U.S. activities, but a need to revive relations to deal with
China and other East Asian uncertainties in the future has been
recognized. And Indonesia has been identified as the centerpiece of this
strategy.

IRAQ: 12 DIE IN ADVANCE POLLING ATTACKS
Twelve people are dead after a roadside bomb and two suicide bombs
targeted early voting in Baghdad, Reuters reported March 4. Five
civilians died and 22 were injured in a roadside bombing amid early
voting by Iraqi security forces, prison inmates and the ill, Reuters
reported. The blast took place in Hurriya neighborhood, Baghdad, near a
polling station to be used in the March 7 national election, said an
unnamed Interior Ministry source. Meanwhile, two suicide attacks at
polling stations in Baghdad injured seven soldiers and 25 civilians. One
attack was at a polling station in Mansour district, where three
soldiers died; the second was in central Baghdad, where four soldiers
were killed as they lined up to vote, said the Interior Ministry.

TURKEY: REGIONAL FORUM PLANNED FOR OCTOBER
Turkey has begun work to set up a regional summit similar to the annual
World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Today's Zaman reported March
4. The International Cooperation Forum will convene in Istanbul on Oct.
27, led by Turkish President Abdullah Gul, and representatives from the
Middle East, the Balkans and Central Asian republics. The forum will
look at culture, the economy and the media and will have a similar
format to Davos.

AFGHANISTAN: ARMY WORKS TO AVOID INFILTRATION - DEFENSE MINISTRY
The Afghan Defense Ministry has been able to avoid infiltration of its
army by the Taliban through procedures and filters, but there have been
some failures, Reuters reported, citing a ministry spokesman. He
declined to give details, citing security reasons.

AFGHANISTAN: FORMER TALIBAN PM ARRESTED
The former prime minister during Afghanistan's Taliban regime, Motasim
Agha, was arrested on March 4 with three others from Ahsanabad area,
Samaa reported. Agha, ranked seventh of 30 most wanted criminals
regarding the 9/11 attacks, is the son-in-law of Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

AFGHANISTAN: LASHKAR-I-TAIBA NOT INVOLVED IN ATTACK - SPOKESMAN
Rebel group Lashkar-i-Taiba said on March 4 that it was not involved in
an attack in Kabul the week of Feb. 22 and that it is not active in
Afghanistan, AFP reported, citing a spokesman of the group.

BRIEF: HANDOVER OF TALIBAN MULLAHS WILL NOT HAPPEN, PAKISTAN SAYS
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Pakistan has decided that it will not hand over a key deputy of Afghan
Taliban chief Mullah Mohammad Omar and other senior leaders of the
movement to Kabul, The News International reported March 4. Quoting
"highly informed sources," the key Pakistani English language daily said
the decision to not extradite mullahs Abdul Ghani Baradar, Abdul Kabir,
Abdul Salam, Mir Mohammed and Younis Akhundzada was "final." The report
added that Islamabad had provided American intelligence officials access
to Baradar, but the questioning was done in the presence of Pakistani
officials. This seems like a deliberate leak from within the Pakistani
security establishment to telegraph its intentions without having to
formally issue a statement. The move was expected, given a court ruling
the week of Feb. 22 barring the handover. Earlier, Pakistani Interior
Minister Rehman Malik said that while Islamabad would not hand over the
Taliban leaders to Washington, it would turn them over to Kabul. Malik,
however, has on many occasions issued unreliable statements. This latest
development reinforces STRATFOR's view since the initial report of
Baradar's arrest: This is not a simple case of apprehending a key
insurgent leader. Rather, a much more complex game is under way -- the
Pakistanis are positioning themselves for an eventual settlement on
Afghanistan.

AFGHANISTAN: OFFENSIVE WRAPS UP
Under Operation Moshtarak in southern Helmand province, joint forces
captured Marja, Afghanistan, and cleared parts of Nad Ali districts of
rebels, Pajhwok news agency reported on March 4, citing a senior Afghan
Interior Ministry official. The offensive wrapped up on March 4, said
the spokesman, and compensation for residents has begun. About 120
Taliban members were killed, with about 55 detained, including a shadow
district chief, he said. Roadside bombs remain a threat, he said.

AFGHANISTAN: MOMENTUM AND INITIATIVE IN COUNTERINSURGENCY
Summary
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has hailed the initial
results of the International Security Assistance Forces operation in
Marjah. Despite some stiff resistance, security has improved in the
small farming community in Helmand province, but the real test can come
only when the American and NATO troops depart.

Analysis
The Taliban offered some stiff resistance to the recent International
Security Assistance Force (ISAF) assault on the farming community of
Marjah, in Afghanistan's Helmand province. But the largest operation in
the history of the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan, known as Operation
Moshtarak (Dari for "together"), quickly achieved its initial
objectives. On Feb. 23 there were no reports of significant fighting for
the first time since the assault began 10 days before. Though clearing
operations continue, and the transition from die-hard Taliban defenders
to more sustainable harassing attacks will bear watching, on March 3
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen hailed the initial results
of the new strategy tested in Marjah.

Part of this is clearly information operations (IO), declaring success
to help shape perceptions both at home and abroad. But where the ISAF is
weakest with IO is among the Afghan people, and it is not yet clear
whether their perception, after eight years of clearing operations that
have often failed to "hold" and "build" -- and a much longer history of
fending off foreign powers -- has changed in any meaningful way.

Even more important, the concept of one side gaining "momentum" and
"initiative" over the other in a military campaign should be only
cautiously applied to a counterinsurgency. In Marjah, for instance,
territory was not really "taken." The United States deliberately
telegraphed the assault in advance, in part to avoid the carnage of the
twin assaults on Fallujah, Iraq, in 2004. From the outset, Marjah was a
political operation supported by military force with no expectation of
defeating the enemy then and there. As a result, most of the Taliban
fled the area, leaving several hundred fighters behind to fight.
Territory was ceded by the Taliban, not seized from it.

The basic strategy of guerrilla warfare is to refuse to fight on the
opponent's terms. In 2001, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in
the wake of the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban largely declined combat; they
disengaged and dispersed. The United States gained the initiative in
Afghanistan very quickly and had immense freedom of action. But this was
misunderstood for victory, and today it is far too soon to interpret the
momentum gained in Marjah as victory.

This ability of a guerilla force to melt into the countryside represents
a real challenge for a conventional force operating on a short
timetable. The United States can win any engagement that it chooses to
win. Its challenge is that the Taliban's imperative is to carry out
harassing hit-and-run attacks and ensure that no engagement fought is
decisive or meaningful enough to degrade the Taliban's capabilities. It
is a commonplace but not altogether inaccurate statement to say that the
United States won every battle in Vietnam but lost the war.

The United States is keenly aware of its weaknesses in Afghanistan, and
it has not forgotten the experiences of Vietnam. And there is a certain
coherency to the American strategy -- its ambitious goals and aggressive
timetable notwithstanding. While the Taliban decline decisive
engagement, the United States is trying to reshape the political and
security landscape so that when it and its allies begin to draw down and
the Taliban return to places like Marjah they will find a coherent
government supported by the people and protected by effective indigenous
forces.

That goal is simply not achievable on the 12- to 18-month timetable
available to ISAF forces (bringing sufficient quantities of indigenous
forces quickly up to speed is especially problematic). But part of this,
too, is to reshape perceptions enough to allow some sort of political
accommodation with enough of the Taliban to create what Afghanistan has
never known -- a cohesive central government.

While there have been some initial successes in Marjah, U.S. Central
Command head Gen. David Petraeus rightly cautioned March 2 that there is
a "hard year" of fighting ahead. And, ultimately, the real test of the
American strategy will come only when the Afghans are left to fend for
themselves. At this point, conceiving of momentum and initiative will
tell us little about progress toward the political accommodation
necessary for lasting success in Afghanistan. Was Marjah a success? It
is far too early to tell.

NIGERIA: REBEL GROUP SAYS IT ATTACKED OIL FACILITY
The militant Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC), warning foreign oil
companies to leave Nigeria's Niger Delta, said that in the early hours
of March 3, it blew up Italian Agipand's Tura manifold, Reuters reported
March 4. An attack could not be immediately confirmed.

GREECE: DEMONSTRATIONS PLANNED
Greece's communist trade union, PAME, is planning a demonstration in
Athens for later in the day on March 4, and the country's primary
private and public sector labor unions have called for a three-hour
strike and demonstration on March 5 at 1000 GMT, DPA reported March 4.
The announcements follow the occupation of the Finance Ministry by more
than 300 PAME demonstrators. The protests are in reaction to the
government's new austerity measures to battle its financial crisis.

Copyright 2010 Stratfor.

The Den of Thieves

2010-03-04T11:43:00.002-07:00

Pretty good summary of what is known - how much more is hidden?$34,000:The amount of federal taxes that Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner (D ) failed to pay during his employment at the International Monetary Fund despite receiving extra compensation and explanatory brochures that described his tax liabilities. True: http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2009/01/timothy_geithner_obamas_nomine.html .........$75,000:The amount of money that the head of the powerful tax-writing committee, Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY),was forced to report on his taxes after the discovery that he had not reported income from a Dominican Republic rental property. His excuses for the failure started with blaming his wife, then his accountant and finally the fact that he didn't speak Spanish. True http://www.nypost.com/seven/09102008/news/regionalnews/rangels_spanish_excuse_128444.htm .......$93,000:The INCREASE in the amount of petty cash each of our Congressional representatives voted to givethemselves in January 2009 during the height of an economic meltdown. That's a $40 + million INCREASE! http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/01/its-recession-congress-gives-lawmakers.html See video here from Fox.........$133,900:The amount Fannie Mae "invested" in Chris Dodd (D-CT), head of the powerful Senate Banking Committee, presumably to repel oversight of the GSE prior to its meltdown. Said meltdown helped touch off the current economic crisis. In only a few years time, Fannie also "invested" over $105,000 in then-Senator Barack Obama. True: http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/07/top-senate-recipients-of-fanni.html ...........$140,000:The amount of back taxes and interest that Cabinet nominee Tom Daschle (D) was forced to cough up after the vetting process revealed significant, unexplained tax liabilities.True: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123335984751235247.html?mod=googlenews_wsj ...........Wall Street Journal$356,000:The approximate amount of income and deductions that Daschle (D) was forced to report on his amended 2005 and 2007 tax returns after being caught cheating on his taxes. This includes $255,256 for the use of a car service, $83,333 in unreported income, and $14,963 in charitable contributions. True: http://online..wsj.com/article/SB123335984751235247.html?mod=googlenews_wsj ..........Wall Street Journal$800,000:The amount of "sweetheart" mortgages Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) received from Countrywide Financial , the details for which he has refused to release details despite months of promises to do so.. Countrywide was once the nation's largest mortgage lender and linked to Government-Sponsored Entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their meltdown precipitated the current financial crisis. Just days ago in Pennsylvania , Countrywide was forced to pay $150,000,000 in mortgage assistance following "a state investigation that concluded that Countrywide relaxed its underwriting standards to sell risky loans to consumers who did not understand them and could not afford them." True: http://rightvoices.com/2008/08/21/more-sweetheart-loan-details-on-senator-chris-dodd-d-ct-chairman-of-the-senate-committee-on-banking-housing-and-urban-affairs/ ..............$1,000,000:The estimated amount of donations by Denise Rich, wife of fugitive Marc Rich, to Democrat interests and the William J. Clinton Foundation in an apparent quid pro quo deal that resulted in a pardon for Mr. Rich. The pardon was reviewed and blessed by Obama Attorney General and then Deputy AG Eric Holder, despite numerous requests by government officials to turn it down. True: http://articles.latimes.com/2008/nov/20/nation/na-holder20 ................$12,000,000:The amount of TARP money provided to community bank OneUnited despite the fact that it did not qualify for funds, and was "under attack from its regulators for allegations of poor lending practices and executive-pay abuses." It turns out that Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA), a key contributor to the Fannie Mae meltdown, just happens to be married to one of the bank's former directors. True: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123258284337504295.html............ Wall Street Journal..$23,500,000:The upper range of net worth Rep. Allan Mollohan (D-WV) accumulated in four years time according to The Washington Post through earmarks of "tens of millions of dollars to groups associated with his own business partners." True: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/14/AR2006051401032.html............Washington Post$2,000,000,000:($2 billion) the approximate amount of money that House Appropriations Chairman David Obey (D-WI) is earmarkingrelated to his son's lobbying efforts. The son, Craig Obey, is "a top lobbyist for the nonprofit group" that would receive a roughly $2 billion component of the "Stimulus" package. True: http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/a_plan_for_stimulus_money_national_parks/C530/L37/ and this as a list of these related stories: http://search.yahoo.com/404handler?src=news&+++%0A+fr%3D404_news%26ref%3Dhttp://directorblue.blogspot.com/2009/01/obama-democrats-by-numbers.html&url=http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090129/ap_on_go_co/stimulus_national_parks_2 ..............$3,700,000,000:($3.7 billion) not to be outdone, this is the estimated value of various defense contracts awarded to a company controlled by the husband of Rep. Diane Feinstein (D-CA). Despite an obvious conflict-of-interest as "a member of the Military Construction Appropriations subcommittee, Sen. Feinstein voted for appropriations worth billions to her husband's firms." True: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/04/22/MN310531.DTL ............$4,190,000,000:($4.19 billion) the amount of money in the so-called "Stimulus" package devoted to fraudulent voter registration ACORN group under the auspices of "Community Stabilization Activities". ACORN is currently the subject of a RICO suit in Ohio . True: http://www.ocregister.com/articles/stimulus-economy-percent-2295331-bill-pelosi ..............$1,646,000,000,000 ($1.646 trillion):The approximate amount of annual United States exports endangered by the "Stimulus" package, which provides a "Buy American" stricture. According to international trade experts, a "US-EU trade war looms" which could result in a worldwide economic depression reminiscent of that touched off by the protectionist Smoot-Hawley Act. True: http://www.asiaing.com/2008-national-export-strategy-the-new-global-main-street.html and http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/01/022685.php Background: Smmot-Hawley Act: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot-Hawley_Tariff_Act It's becoming a culture of corruption and stupidity. In addition, these folks appear to be above the law. All of the aforementioned are still in office, living like the royalty they think they are. Remember: This all happened in just theFIRST QUARTER of 2009, folks!

God Bless America

2010-03-04T08:47:00.001-07:00

In early 1940, Kate Smith, a fiercely patriotic American, and the biggest star on radio, was deeply worried about her country. She asked Irving Berlin if he could give her a song that would reignite the spirit of American patriotism and faith. He said he had a song that he had written in 1917, but never used it. He said she could have it. She sat at the piano & played it and realized how good it was. She called Mr. Berlin and told him that she couldn't take this from him for nothing. So, they agreed that any money that would be made off the song would be donated to the Boy Scouts of America. Thanks to Kate Smith and Irving Berlin, the Scouts have received millions of dollars in royalties. This clip is from the movie "You're in the Army Now" (1941). You will see some familiar faces in the clip . Frank Sinatra said that when Kate Smith, whom he considered the greatest singer of his age, first sang this song on the radio, a million guys got 'dust' in their eyes and had to wipe the tears the 'dust' caused. If you can watch and listen without getting a little 'dust' getting in your eyes, you have no soul. Sit back and enjoy a Real Star.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnQDW-NMaRs

The World Turns--03 March 10--Evening news

2010-03-03T08:26:00.003-07:00

INDIA: VIOLENCE ERUPTS OVER BANGLADESH WRITERPolice imposed a curfew in a town in the southern Indian state ofKarnataka after two people were killed in protests over an article bythe exiled Bangladeshi writer Taslima Nasreen, AFP reported March 2. Oneperson was shot dead, while another was killed in clashes that broke outwhen the demonstrators tried to force shopkeepers to close theirbusinesses in support of their protest. The Shimoga police chief said acurfew was imposed until the evening of March 3. He added that thesituation is under control, but it's still tense.AUSTRALIA: RBA RAISES INTEREST RATESThe central bank raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent,The Sydney Morning Herald reported March 2. RBA governor Glenn Stevenssaid the board judges that with growth likely to be close to trend andinflation close to target over the coming year, it is appropriate forinterest rates to be closer to average. He added that the rate hikedecision is a further step in that process.SRI LANKA: IMF 2010 DEFICIT TARGET OVERSHOTA Finance Ministry report showed that Sri Lanka significantly overshotits 2009 budget deficit target set by the International Monetary Fund(IMF) and will fail to meet the target set for 2010, Reuters reportedMarch 2. The Ministry of Finance said the budget deficit of $4.1 billionturned out to be 9.7 percent of GDP. The 2010 budget deficit isestimated at 7.5 percent, well above the IMF target of 6 percent. Fiscaladjustment in 2009 suffered a setback due to a less than expectedrecovery in trade-based activities and the impact of the global economiccrisis.U.S.: CLINTON OFFERS HELP ON FALKLANDS DISPUTEU.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the United States standsready to help facilitate the Falklands dispute, Xinhua reported March 2.She stated that the United States would like to see Argentina andBritain resolve the issue in a "peaceful and productive way." However,she said the United States "cannot make either one do so" and made clearshe was not offering to serve as a mediator.PAKISTAN: TALIBAN CONFIRM KILLING OF SENIOR LEADERPakistani Taliban confirmed the killing of wanted militant Qari Zafar ina recent United States drone strike in North Waziristan tribal region,Xinhua reported March 2. Qari Abdul Majeed, known as Qari Zafar, leaderof his own faction of Taliban (Qari Zafar group), was killed with 14other militants in U.S. drone strike near Dargah Mandi area in NorthWaziristan on Feb. 24, according to a Taliban statement. He was buriedat a secret location after the funeral, the statement said, adding thatMufti Abuzar Khanjari was appointed new chief of the Qari Zafar group.RUSSIA, CROATIA: PMS TO DISCUSS OIL AND GASRussian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Croatian counterpartJadranka Kosor will meet in Moscow to discuss issues of cooperation inthe oil and gas sector, RIA Novosti reported March 2. According to thepress service of the Russian government, Kosor will discuss apossibility of Croatia joining the South Stream gas pipeline project.CHINA: TIME REMAINS FOR IRAN NUCLEAR TALKSChinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said China calls for aresolution of the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means, AFPreported March 2. He stated that China believes there is still room fordiplomatic efforts and that the parties concerned should step updiplomatic efforts and push for progress in dialogue and negotiations toproperly resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.SOUTH KOREA: LEE INVITED TO JAPANJapan invited South Korean President Lee Myung Bak to visit in April buthis aides said Lee has no plans to do so yet, Yonhap reported March 2.DENMARK: PM TO VISIT SOUTH KOREAThe Danish prime minister will visit South Korea March 10-12 at theinvitation of President Lee Myung Bak, Korea's KBS news reported March2. Lee and Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen will hold a summitto discuss ways to boost bilateral trade and cooperation in a wide rangeof sectors, including renewable energy development and green growthinitiatives.CHINA: URBAN-RURAL DISPARITY CONTINUESChina recorded its widest rural-urban income gap last year since thecountry launched its reform and opening-up policy in 1978, China Dailyreported March 2. The urban per capita net income stood at 17,175 yuanlast year, in contrast to 5,153 yuan in the countryside, with the urban-to-rural income ratio being 3.33:1, according to the latest figures fromthe National Bureau of Statistics. Song Hongyuan, director of theResearch Center for the Rural Economy in the Ministry of Agriculture,said the income gap will continue to expand as the country focuses itsefforts on urban sprawl, rather than rural development.IRAQ: POLICE CHIEF ESCAPES ATTEMPT ON LIFEIraq's Brig. Sarhad Qader said Col. Hussein Nemat Hawas, the director ofthe Dabas police station in Kirkuk, escaped an attempt on his life whenan explosive device hit his motorcade near al-Rabe Bridge, Aswat al-Iraqreported March 2. The blast caused damage to one of the vehicles andknocked down an electricity pole, but no casualties were reported, theofficial explained.IRAQ: VIOLENCE DOWN BUT THREATS REMAINU.S. Gen. David Petraeus said security in Iraq has greatly improved overthe last two-and-a-half years but elements of al Qaeda and Shia militiaremain, AP reported March 2. The U.S. military is on track to reduce thenumber of troops there to 50,000 by the end of August and those thatremain will have an "advise and assist" mission, he said.IRAQ: OIL DEAL WITH JAPAN FAILEDIraqi Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said talks over a huge oildevelopment deal with a Japanese energy consortium had broken down,Middle-East Online reported March 2. Baghdad would promote thedevelopment in the Nasiriyah oil field centered around an Iraqi state-owned company, he was quoted as saying by the Japanese newspaper AsahiShimbun. But a spokesman for Nippon Oil Corp, one of three Japaneseenergy firms in the consortium, said the company believes thenegotiations are still going on and doesn't understand what the ministerreally meant by his remarks.PAKISTAN: FRESH OPERATIONS TO BE LAUNCHED - COMMANDERThe Pakistani Frontier Corps is about to launch operations in theOrakzai tribal region and the Tirah valley to destroy militant hideouts,a military commander said March 2, reported Dawn.AFGHANISTAN: CZECH PREMIER, DEFENSE MINISTER ARRIVEThe prime minister and defense minister of the Czech Republic arrived inAfghanistan, Tolo TV reported March 2. The two Czech Republic officialswill meet the Afghan president and a number of other officials. Topicsof discussion include ensuring security and bilateral ties.PAKISTAN: IRAN TO SELL NATURAL GAS TO ISLAMABAD - COMPANY OFFICIALThe National Iranian Oil Co. will sign a contract with Pakistan on March9-10 to sell natural gas to Islamabad, said a senior official with thecompany, reported Reuters, citing Fars news agency on March 2. It wasnot known where the signing would take place. It will allow for"executive measures" to take place regarding gas exports, Fars reported,although it did not elaborate.IRAN: NEW SPEED VESSEL TESTEDIran's Brig. Gen. Ali Fadai, deputy commander of the IranianRevolutionary Guards navy, said the Guards Corps "successfully tested"the Tondar speed vessel in southern waters in Bushehr Province, FarsNews Agency reported March 2. He said all production stages of thevessel were carried out domestically and the vessel has very highprecision. The commander made the remarks at a graduation ceremony inChalus, northern Iran.TURKEY: GENERAL AND PROSECUTOR CHARGEDA four-star Turkish general and a prosecutor were charged withinvolvement in an alleged plot to discredit the Turkish government and apowerful Islamic movement considered close to it, DPA reported March 2.The investigation is connected with an ongoing trial into anotheralleged coup plot. The indictment claims Gen. Saldiray Berk andErzincan's chief prosecutor Ilhan Cihaner are linked to the plot andcharges them with "being members of a terrorist organization," accordingto the state-run Anatolia Agency.U.K.: TURKISH PM TO VISITBritish Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan will visit London in March to boost current ties andcontribute to peace and security, Today's Zaman reported March 2.FRANCE AND RUSSIA REVIVE OLD GEOPOLITICAL LINKSGEOPOLITICS EXPLAINS WHY HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF. It uncovers the logic-- rooted in geography -- of why the same follies befall countries overcenturies, why generals invade along the same routes their ancientcounterparts took before them and why alliances repeat themselves.On Monday, we saw history repeating itself in Paris. Russian PresidentDmitri Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy came together toconclude several key military and business deals, and at leastrhetorically seemed to be closer to the 1892 Franco-Russian Alliancethan at any point since the First World War. To summarize a long list,Medvedev and Sarkozy agreed on the following points: that negotiations would begin on the sale of four 20,000-ton FrenchMistral-class fourth generation command and control helicopter carriers(which include significant command and control capabilities) worth $2.2billion, drawing parallels to the 1891 French Fleet visit to St.Petersburg that broke the ice between the then-ideological enemies; to form a joint venture in train manufacturing -- harkening back to the19th century French investments in Russian railway construction; to sell a share of Russian Nord Stream pipeline to French GDF Suez; to talk frankly about a "new security infrastructure between Europeand Russia," apparently one that Russia has insisted take Europeansecurity beyond the NATO alliance.In short, Russia and France agreed that they can and will "solveEuropean issues ourselves," as Medvedev put it.That Paris and Moscow are reviving their old geopolitical links is notsurprising to STRATFOR. In the early 1890s, France was isolated by abrilliantly designed German diplomatic blockade. Berlin managed acomplex alliance with both Russia and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, whileLondon and Paris bickered over their colonial possessions. When GermanEmperor Wilhelm II decided to spurn his alliance with Russia, France sawits chance and moved in. Paris swallowed its pride -- forgot the part ofle Marseillaise referring to "treacherous monarchs" -- and extended analliance to Imperial Russia."Both the 1892 Franco-Russian alliance and today's increasingcooperation between Moscow and Paris are based on geopolitical fundamentals."Both Russia and France pushed aside ideological resentment -- bred byFrench Republican anti-monarchist roots and something about Napoleon andhis March on Moscow -- and realized that the key to their security layin containing the rising German Empire sprawling between them. The keyto making this alliance possible in the 19th century -- as now -- isthat the two had no outstanding conflicts with one another, orgeopolitical interests that crossed one another's path. France is aMediterranean power with a naval presence in the Atlantic that was andis paranoid about a German-dominated Europe, while Russia was and is asmuch of a land-based power (because most of its ports are either frozenover or too far away from the core) as any in the world with interestson the other side of Germany, in the Caucuses and Central Asia. Save forthe aforementioned adventures by Napoleonic France -- which admittedlyran counter to most European countries' interests -- the two nevercrossed paths on a consistent basis.France and Russia are therefore widely divergent in their geopoliticalimperatives, like ships passing silently in the night. In recent days,they happen to have also found the impetus to share a closerunderstanding, if not the nascent stages of an alliance.Paris -- currently in a formal (but tenuous) tag-team with Berlin torule the European Union -- is nervous that the economic crisis in Greeceand the eurozone as a whole is creating conditions that will allowGermany to define and entrench its dominance over Europe. It needsBerlin to save Europe from financial disaster, but understands thatletting Germany design the recovery will entrench Berlin as both theeconomic and political capital of the continent. It needs options and istherefore looking to create an insurance policy, preferably one thatsurrounds Germany the way it did in the 19th century.Moscow, on the other hand, wants to diversify its influence from onlyGermany -- which has thus far been Moscow's most accommodating Europeanpower -- to include more European powers in its Rolodex. Russia knowsthat Germany is powerful and that Russian levers on Germany -- in termsof natural gas supplies -- are not enough to keep a resurgent Berlin inline forever, especially as Berlin looks to diversify its energy resources.Furthermore, Moscow understands that the United States is on the frontend of breaking free from its imbroglio in the Middle East. Already,American forces are at their lowest level in Iraq since the 2003invasion. Moscow hopes that an understanding with France on energy,military and perhaps strategic matters makes it difficult for the UnitedStates to reflexively count on Europe to counter Russia's sphere ofinfluence in the Caucuses and Central Europe.France is a long way from breaking from its NATO alliance orrelationship with Berlin, and Moscow is far from replacing Germany asits number one, go-to European friend. But we note that both the 1892Franco-Russian alliance and the current, increasing cooperation betweenMoscow and Paris are based on geopolitical fundamentals. In this case,these two European powers find very few points of contention due todivergent geographies that in due time naturally draw France and Russiatogether.RUSSIA: FRENCH COMPANY ORDERS, TO LAUNCH SOYUZ ROCKETSFrench Arianespace has ordered 14 Russian Soyuz carrier rockets to belaunched, said company head Jean-Ives Le Gall, reported Interfax onMarch 2. The contract is worth about $1 billion, he said. Launch hasbeen set for the second quarter of 2010, then another 17 Soyuz launcheswill follow, he said, with the number of launches increasing each year.LEBANON: PRESIDENT TO VISIT SAUDI ARABIALebanese President Michel Suleiman will visit Saudi Arabia on March 6-7to meet with King Abdullah and senior officials to discuss relations anddevelopments in the region, primarily Arab affairs in advance of theLibyan Arab Summit, KUNA reported March 2.UAE: OPERATIVE POSSIBLY TRACKED BY ARAB AGENTS - HAMAS OFFICIALHamas senior operative Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, assassinated in Dubai, waslikely being tracked by Jordanian or Egyptian agents before the Jan. 19killing, Reuters reported March 2, citing an interview by Al-Quds Al-Araby daily with Mahmoud Nasser, a member of Hamas' political bureau.Nasser said evidence indicated that al-Mabhouh was killed earlier thanthe agents had planned, and that al-Mabhouh had information that couldbe seen as dangerous to those trying to quash Islamist resistance.CHINA: U.S. RESPONSIBLE FOR STRAINED RELATIONS - FOREIGN MINISTRYThe Chinese Foreign Ministry said on March 2 that Washington is solelyresponsible for strained relations between the two nations, Bloombergreported. A ministry spokesman said the United States should respectChinese efforts to return relations "back on the track of sound andhealthy development."EU: EUROZONE INFLATION SLOWS IN FEBRUARYConsumer prices in the eurozone increased an estimated 0.9 percent inFebruary from the same period in 2009 and after rising 1 percent inJanuary, Eurostat announced March 2.IRAN: DIPLOMACY REMAINS AN OPTION - RUSSIAN FMRussian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on March 2 that thereremains room for diplomacy instead of sanctions regarding Iran's nuclearprogram, and that diplomatic solutions will be pursued, Reutersreported. Lavrov said his comments aligned with a statement by RussianPresident Dmitri Medvedev.KOSOVO: INDEPENDENCE IRREVERSIBLE - FRENCH FMFrench Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, while in Pristina, calledKosovo independence irreversible from the French perspective, B92reported March 2.CHINA: CLEAN ENERGY PROGRAM TARGETS 15 PERCENT BY 2020Clean energy in China will account for 15 percent of total consumptionby 2020, said Zhang Guobao, head of the National Energy Administration,reported China Daily on March 2. Billions will be invested in thebuilding of nuclear power stations, wind farms, solar power plants andresearch of renewable energy technologies, he said. Zhang said theprogram will be made public soon; he did not give a specific date. Hesaid the National Energy Commission will hold its first meeting soon.Researchers, scientists and officials drafted the program in 2009.EGYPT: PRESIDENT TO VISIT GERMANYEgyptian President Hosni Mubarak will meet with German Chancellor AngelaMerkel in Berlin on March 4 to discuss the Middle East peace process,and bilateral and regional issues, DPA reported March 2, citing a Germangovernment spokesman.NIGERIA: FM BEGINS AFRICAN TOURNigerian Foreign Minister Ojo Maduekwe on March 2 began a 10-day trip toMalawi, Mozambique, Angola, Namibia and Botswana, Next reported, citinga ministry spokesman. In Malawi, he will meet with Malawi President andAfrican Union Chairman Bingu wa Mutharika and the foreign minister; inthe other countries, he will meet with the foreign ministers and otherleading officials.BRIEF: GREECE TO DELAY BOND ISSUANCE UNTIL AFTER AUSTERITY MEASURESApplying STRATFOR analysis to breaking newsGreek government spokesman Giorgos Petalotis told AP on March 2 that theGreek government would wait to issue new 10-year state bonds -- expectedto be in the amount of 5 billion euros (about $6.7 billion) -- until ithas seen how the markets respond to its new austerity measures. TheGreek Cabinet will debate the austerity measures March 3, with expectedannouncement on March 4. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou isexpected to also present the new measures when he visits Berlin for ameeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on March 5. Greece sold 8billion euro worth of government bonds in January. Investor demand forthe bonds at that offering was positive, although Greece had to pay apremium to attract investors to the auction. This entire year Athenswill have to borrow around 53 billion euros, with approximately 23billion euros needed to be raised by the end of May because of maturingdebt tranches. The wait on issuing debt may be also prompted by the needto convince not only investors but also European capitals, specificallyBerlin, that Athens is willing to make sacrifices to end its crisis.This may be a move designed for audiences in Germany, where the publicis opposed to any bailout of Greece. A signal that Greece is serious anddetermined to pull itself out of the crisis through austerity measureswould make it politically more palatable for Merkel to push for aid, if she chooses to do so. Copyright 2010 Stratfor.

Events For the Night of 2 March 2010

2010-03-03T07:13:00.001-07:00

India-Saudi Arabia: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has just completed a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia during which India and Saudi Arabia signed an extradition treaty and several pacts to raise their cooperation to a strategic partnership. Areas of agreement include security, economic, energy and defense, The Hindu reported 1 March.

This is the first time in 30 years that an Indian Prime Minister has visited Saudi Arabia. Aside from its novelty, it is significant for several reasons. Under Prime Minister Singh, Indian foreign policy has been much more innovative than is customary. India has reached out to Israel for security purposes, but not Saudi Arabia. The failure to improve ties to the Saudis always has been an oversight in light of India’s more than a hundred million Muslims.

Still the legacy of the past lies heavy, meaning that Singh’s visit is a manifestation of Indian concern about Pakistan. That concern moves in two directions. One is encouragement of Saudi state-to-state and economic relations to encourage Pakistan to continue to root out militants and terrorists.

The other direction is to establish procedures so that Islamic terrorists who stage attacks in India can no longer seek refuge in Saudi Arabia as self-proclaimed jihadists. They are subject to extradition to India, even if they are Pakistanis.

The announcement provided no details about the energy agreement, but India needs oil and the Saudis can supply it. That makes India a competitor with Pakistan, except that India can pay and Pakistan is essentially a beggar.

Pakistan: The News published a lengthy and perceptive editorial about a strategic shift in Pakistani national security policy. According to this analysis, the recent and continuing arrests of Afghan Taliban leaders in Pakistan means that the Army and the Intelligence establishment has decided to abandon the Quetta Shura, as losers that threaten Pakistan. That is tonight’s tentative good news.

Excerpts from the analysis follow.

“In a major policy shift, the powerful Pakistani establishment seems to have decided to abandon the former Taliban rulers of Afghanistan by agreeing to launch a massive crackdown against their command-and-control structure, which has already led to the arrest of 9 of the 18 key members of the Mullah Omar-led Quetta Shura in different parts of Pakistan, and that too within a short span of two months.”

“According to well-informed diplomatic circles in Islamabad, the decision-makers in the powerful Pakistani establishment seem to have concluded in view of the ever-growing nexus between the Pakistani and the Afghan Taliban that they are now one and the same and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) can no longer be treated as two separate Jihadi entities. Therefore, the establishment is believed to have revised its previous strategic assessment of the two Taliban groups, which have a common mentor (Mullah Muhammad Omar), and decided to proceed against the Afghan Taliban as well, considering them a greater threat for Pakistan now than in the past.”

Comment: The editorial continues at length, but the excerpt contains the key assessments. The editorial’s explanation of the causality above is not credible. Far more believable is the discussion of Saudi pressure on Islamabad to crack down for the sake of Pakistani stability and to stop extremism.

The Pakistani writer plays down the impact of US pressure. He ascribes the policy change to shuttle diplomacy by Saudi Prince Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz, the King’s half-brother and chief of the General Intelligence Presidency. Pakistani dependence on Saudi crude at concessional prices gives Saudi Arabia a powerful basis for getting Pakistani leaders to pay attention to Saudi requirements.

The loss of safe haven in Pakistan would mean the Taliban movement in Afghanistan has no chance of long term sustainment at recent levels for two reasons. First, if the Pakistanis continue their roundup, the movement becomes leaderless. Bands devolve into banditry as the larger architecture flops.

Secondly, much money, ammunition and other supplies reach Afghanistan via the facilitators paid by the Quetta Shura. With disruption of the supply links to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia that run through Pakistan – mainly Karachi, Omar and his acolytes have no capability to support a nation-wide Pashtun-based insurgency. If they must flee to Afghanistan or the border marches, they cannot keep up the pace of the past two years of fighting, assuming Pakistani authorities keep up the pressure and complete the roundup.

Without Pakistan as a safe haven and with the Shura members in custody, several things will happen. The Afghan Taliban will devolve into banditry within a year, though they will not disappear. The prospects for negotiated power sharing improve immeasurably. Pakistan becomes the honest broker among the warring parties and holds the high cards … or high value targets.

Pakistan-US-China: The abandonment of extremists apparently includes Uighurs who sought refuge in Pakistan. Pakistani intelligence and Taliban officials said Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, the al-Qaida-linked leader of a group called the Turkistani Islamic Party (TIP), was killed by a US remotely piloted vehicle attack in North Waziristan, Dawn News reported 1 March. Al-Turkistani in the past called for attacks on China for its mistreatment of Muslims.

Training and protection of Uighurs in Pakistan have been perennial sources of friction in the security relationship with China, which is indispensable for Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent as well as it navy and air force capabilities. In allowing a Uighur leader to be killed – and probably providing some assistance, Pakistani leaders apparently want to show that the policy change favors both of Pakistan’s primary supporters – the US and China.

Russia-France: Update. In a meeting in Paris today, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said Russia is negotiating to buy four Mistral helicopter-carrying warships, DPA reported. Sarkozy said France could sell the warships to Russia without military equipment. Medvedev said France's selling of the Mistral to Russia "is a symbol of trust between our two countries."

It also increases the potential threat to all pro-NATO countries and NATO members that border Russia and have a sea coast.

Medvedev, playing to the French chorus, also said Russia might support stronger sanctions against Iran.

Somalia Anti-Pirate Patrol: A Danish destroyer, HDMS Absalon, sank a pirate mothership in the Indian Ocean off the Somali coast after allowing the crew to leave, a NATO spokes person said Monday. The mothership was fired on and sank after its crew members were transferred to a smaller boat in tow, which was allowed to return to the mainland.

Piracy is off to a slow start this year. An Australian source reported 17 acts of attempted and successful ship seizures this year through 1 March. Six ships and 140 seafarers plus a British couple are in pirate custody at this time, awaiting ransom payments. Ransom demands have increased to $7 million, but it is not clear that payments have gone above $4 million, about the same as last year.

Niger: Update. Today, the junta announced formation of a 20-member provisional government to guide the country to future elections, Reuters reported. Mahamadou Danda will continue as prime minister, and junta chief Major Salou Djibo appointed five military officers to the government, including General Mamadou Ousseini as Defense Minister.

The new military ruler said millions of people are threatened by famine in Niger, Reuters reported. Addressing the nation on state television, Major Djibo said all means were urgently being deployed to tackle the famine, which "threatens the existence of millions of Nigeriens in virtually all regions."
Easing of famine will be the first test of the sincerity of the new caretakers, who claim to have seized power to take better care of the people, among other justifications

News from last night--01March 10

2010-03-02T09:57:00.001-07:00

For the Night of 1 March 2010

India-Saudi Arabia: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has just completed a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia during which India and Saudi Arabia signed an extradition treaty and several pacts to raise their cooperation to a strategic partnership. Areas of agreement include security, economic, energy and defense, The Hindu reported 1 March.

This is the first time in 30 years that an Indian Prime Minister has visited Saudi Arabia. Aside from its novelty, it is significant for several reasons. Under Prime Minister Singh, Indian foreign policy has been much more innovative than is customary. India has reached out to Israel for security purposes, but not Saudi Arabia. The failure to improve ties to the Saudis always has been an oversight in light of India’s more than a hundred million Muslims.

Still the legacy of the past lies heavy, meaning that Singh’s visit is a manifestation of Indian concern about Pakistan. That concern moves in two directions. One is encouragement of Saudi state-to-state and economic relations to encourage Pakistan to continue to root out militants and terrorists.

The other direction is to establish procedures so that Islamic terrorists who stage attacks in India can no longer seek refuge in Saudi Arabia as self-proclaimed jihadists. They are subject to extradition to India, even if they are Pakistanis.

The announcement provided no details about the energy agreement, but India needs oil and the Saudis can supply it. That makes India a competitor with Pakistan, except that India can pay and Pakistan is essentially a beggar.

Pakistan: The News published a lengthy and perceptive editorial about a strategic shift in Pakistani national security policy. According to this analysis, the recent and continuing arrests of Afghan Taliban leaders in Pakistan means that the Army and the Intelligence establishment has decided to abandon the Quetta Shura, as losers that threaten Pakistan. That is tonight’s tentative good news.

Excerpts from the analysis follow.

“In a major policy shift, the powerful Pakistani establishment seems to have decided to abandon the former Taliban rulers of Afghanistan by agreeing to launch a massive crackdown against their command-and-control structure, which has already led to the arrest of 9 of the 18 key members of the Mullah Omar-led Quetta Shura in different parts of Pakistan, and that too within a short span of two months.”

“According to well-informed diplomatic circles in Islamabad, the decision-makers in the powerful Pakistani establishment seem to have concluded in view of the ever-growing nexus between the Pakistani and the Afghan Taliban that they are now one and the same and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) can no longer be treated as two separate Jihadi entities. Therefore, the establishment is believed to have revised its previous strategic assessment of the two Taliban groups, which have a common mentor (Mullah Muhammad Omar), and decided to proceed against the Afghan Taliban as well, considering them a greater threat for Pakistan now than in the past.”

Comment: The editorial continues at length, but the excerpt contains the key assessments. The editorial’s explanation of the causality above is not credible. Far more believable is the discussion of Saudi pressure on Islamabad to crack down for the sake of Pakistani stability and to stop extremism.

The Pakistani writer plays down the impact of US pressure. He ascribes the policy change to shuttle diplomacy by Saudi Prince Muqrin bin Abdul-Aziz, the King’s half-brother and chief of the General Intelligence Presidency. Pakistani dependence on Saudi crude at concessional prices gives Saudi Arabia a powerful basis for getting Pakistani leaders to pay attention to Saudi requirements.

The loss of safe haven in Pakistan would mean the Taliban movement in Afghanistan has no chance of long term sustainment at recent levels for two reasons. First, if the Pakistanis continue their roundup, the movement becomes leaderless. Bands devolve into banditry as the larger architecture flops.

Secondly, much money, ammunition and other supplies reach Afghanistan via the facilitators paid by the Quetta Shura. With disruption of the supply links to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia that run through Pakistan – mainly Karachi, Omar and his acolytes have no capability to support a nation-wide Pashtun-based insurgency. If they must flee to Afghanistan or the border marches, they cannot keep up the pace of the past two years of fighting, assuming Pakistani authorities keep up the pressure and complete the roundup.

Without Pakistan as a safe haven and with the Shura members in custody, several things will happen. The Afghan Taliban will devolve into banditry within a year, though they will not disappear. The prospects for negotiated power sharing improve immeasurably. Pakistan becomes the honest broker among the warring parties and holds the high cards … or high value targets.

Pakistan-US-China: The abandonment of extremists apparently includes Uighurs who sought refuge in Pakistan. Pakistani intelligence and Taliban officials said Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, the al-Qaida-linked leader of a group called the Turkistani Islamic Party (TIP), was killed by a US remotely piloted vehicle attack in North Waziristan, Dawn News reported 1 March. Al-Turkistani in the past called for attacks on China for its mistreatment of Muslims.

Training and protection of Uighurs in Pakistan have been perennial sources of friction in the security relationship with China, which is indispensable for Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent as well as it navy and air force capabilities. In allowing a Uighur leader to be killed – and probably providing some assistance, Pakistani leaders apparently want to show that the policy change favors both of Pakistan’s primary supporters – the US and China.

Russia-France: Update. In a meeting in Paris today, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said Russia is negotiating to buy four Mistral helicopter-carrying warships, DPA reported. Sarkozy said France could sell the warships to Russia without military equipment. Medvedev said France's selling of the Mistral to Russia "is a symbol of trust between our two countries."

It also increases the potential threat to all pro-NATO countries and NATO members that border Russia and have a sea coast.

Medvedev, playing to the French chorus, also said Russia might support stronger sanctions against Iran.

Somalia Anti-Pirate Patrol: A Danish destroyer, HDMS Absalon, sank a pirate mothership in the Indian Ocean off the Somali coast after allowing the crew to leave, a NATO spokes person said Monday. The mothership was fired on and sank after its crew members were transferred to a smaller boat in tow, which was allowed to return to the mainland.

Piracy is off to a slow start this year. An Australian source reported 17 acts of attempted and successful ship seizures this year through 1 March. Six ships and 140 seafarers plus a British couple are in pirate custody at this time, awaiting ransom payments. Ransom demands have increased to $7 million, but it is not clear that payments have gone above $4 million, about the same as last year.

Niger: Update. Today, the junta announced formation of a 20-member provisional government to guide the country to future elections, Reuters reported. Mahamadou Danda will continue as prime minister, and junta chief Major Salou Djibo appointed five military officers to the government, including General Mamadou Ousseini as Defense Minister.

The new military ruler said millions of people are threatened by famine in Niger, Reuters reported. Addressing the nation on state television, Major Djibo said all means were urgently being deployed to tackle the famine, which "threatens the existence of millions of Nigeriens in virtually all regions."

Easing of famine will be the first test of the sincerity of the new caretakers, who claim to have seized power to take better care of the people, among other justifications.

Your Social Security or Why Are You a ....

2010-03-01T15:25:00.000-07:00

 Your
> Social Security
>
>
>  
>
>
> Just
> in case some of you young whippersnappers (& some older
> ones) didn't know this. It's easy to check out, if
> you don't believe it. 
>
> Be
> sure and show it to your kids. They need a little history
> lesson on what's what and it doesn't matter whether
> you are Democrat or Republican.. Facts are
> Facts!!!
>
>
>  
>
> Our Social Security
>
> Franklin Roosevelt, a Democrat, introduced the Social
> Security (FICA) Program. He promised:
>
> 1.) That participation in the Program would be
> Completely voluntary,
>
>
>  
> No
> longer Voluntary
>
>
>  
>
> 2.) That the participants would only have to pay
> 1% of the first $1,400 of their annual
> Incomes into the Program,
>
>
>  
> Now
> 7.65%
>
>
>  
>
> 3.) That the money the participants elected to put
> into the Program would be deductible from
> their income for tax purposes each
> year,
>
>
>  
> No
> longer tax deductible
>
>
>  
>
> 4.) That the money the participants put into the
> independent 'Trust Fund' rather than into the
> general operating fund, and therefore, would
> only be used to fund the Social Security
> Retirement Program, and no other
> Government program, and,
>
>
>  
> Under
> Johnson the money was moved to
>
>
>  
> The
> General Fund and Spent
>
>
>  
>
> 5.) That the annuity payments to the retirees
> would never be taxed as income.
>
>
>  
> Under
> Clinton & Gore
>
>
>  
> Up
> to 85% of your Social Security can be
> Taxed
>
>
>  
>
> Since many of us have paid into FICA for years and are
> now receiving a Social Security check every month --
> and then finding that we are getting taxed on 85% of
> the money we paid to the Federal government to 'put
> away' -- you may be interested in the following:
>
> ------------ --------- --------- --------- ---------
> --------- ----
>
> Q: Which Political Party took Social Security from the
> independent 'Trust Fund' and put it into the
> general fund so that Congress could spend it?
>
> A: It was Lyndon Johnson and the democratically
> controlled House and Senate.
>
> ------------ --------- --------- --------- ---------
> --------- --------- --
>
> Q: Which Political Party eliminated the income tax
> deduction for Social Security (FICA) withholding?
>
> A: The Democratic Party.
>
> ------------ --------- --------- --------- ---------
> --------- --------- -----
>
> Q: Which Political Party started taxing Social
> Security annuities?
>
> A: The Democratic Party, wit h Al Gore casting the
> 'tie-breaking' deciding vote as President of the
> Senate, while he was Vice President of the  US
>
>
> ------------ --------- --------- --------- ---------
> --------- --------- -
>
> Q: Which Political Party decided to start
> giving
> annuity payments to immigrants?
>
> AND MY FAVORITE:
>
> A: That's right!
>
>
>  
> Jimmy
> Carter
> and the Democratic Party.
>
> immigrants moved into this country, and at age 65,
> began to receive Social Security payments! The
> Democratic Party gave these payments to them,
> even though they never paid a dime into it!
>
>
> ------------ -- ------------ --------- ----- ------------
> --------- ---------
>
> Then, after violating the original contract (FICA), the
> Democrats turn around and tell you that the Republicans want
> to take your Social Security away!
>
> And the worst part about it is uninformed citizens believe
> it!
>
>
>  
> If
> enough people receive this, maybe a seed of
> awareness will be planted and maybe changes will
> evolve. Maybe not, some Democrats are awfully
> sure of what isn't so.
>
> But it's worth a try. How many people can YOU send this
> to?
>
> Actions speak louder than bumper
> stickers.
>
>
>  
> AND
> CONGRESS GIVES THEMSELVES 100% RETIREMENT FOR ONLY SERVING
> ONE TERM!!!
>
>
> 
>  
> A
> government big enough to give you everything you want, is
> strong enough to take everything you have.
> -Thomas Jefferson

One year Reflection of the "Zero"

2010-02-24T15:38:00.000-07:00

never thought about it like this. Obama really is a hero—like the Pied Piper!! Read what he has done so far:

He destroyed the Clinton Political Machine: Driving a stake through the heart of Hillary's Presidential aspirations [we hope] - something no Republican was ever able to do. Remember when a Hillary Presidency scared the daylights out of you!

He killed off the Kennedy Dynasty: No more Kennedys trolling Washington looking for booze and women wanting rides home. American women and Freedom are safer tonight!

He is destroying the Democratic Party before our eyes!

Dennis Moore had never lost a race - quit

Evan Bayh had never lost a race - quit

Byron Dorgan - had never lost a race - quit

Harry Reid - in all probability - GONE

Christopher Dodd - Quit

Patrick Kennedy - Quit

Ted Kaufman - Quit

Roland Burris - Quit

RINO Charlie Crist - Gone

Arlen Specter - maybe gone

Barbara Boxer - maybe gone

These are just a handful of the Democrats whose political careers Obama has destroyed! By the end of 2010 dozens more will be!

In December of 2008 the Democrats were on the rise. In the last two election cycles they had picked up 14 senate seats and 52 house seats. The press was touting the death of the Conservative Movement and the Republican Party.

In one year Obama put a stop to all of this and will probably give the House, if not the Senate back to the Republicans.

He has completely exposed liberals and progressives (extremists) for what they are. Every generation seems to need to relearn the lesson on why they should never actually put liberals in charge. He is bringing home the lesson very well!

Liberals tax, borrow and spend

Liberals won't bring themselves to protect America

Liberals want to take over the economy

Liberals think they know what is best for everyone

Liberals aren't happy till they are running YOUR life

He has brought more Americans back to conservatism than anyone since Reagan.

In one year he rejuvenated the conservative movement and brought out to the streets millions of Freedom Loving Americans.

Name one other time in your life that you saw your friends and neighbors this interested in taking back America !

In all honesty one year ago I was more afraid than I had ever been in my life. Not of the economy, but of the direction our country was going. I thought Americans had forgotten what this country was all about. My neighbors, friends, strangers proved to me that my lack of confidence of the Greatness and Wisdom of the American people was flat out wrong.

When the American People wake up, no smooth talking teleprompter reader can fool them!

WHO AM I. ?

2010-01-24T05:57:00.000-07:00

* I was born in one country, raised in another. My father was
born in another country. I was not his only child. He fathered
several children with numerous women.

* I became very close to my mother, as my father showed no
interest in me. My mother died at an early age from cancer.

* Later in life, questions arose over my real name.

* My birth records were sketchy and no one was able to
produce a legitimate, reliable birth certificate.

* I grew up practicing one faith but converted to
Christianity, as it was widely accepted in my country, but I practiced
non-traditional beliefs & didn't follow Christianity, except in the
public eye under scrutiny.

* I worked and lived among lower-class people as a young
adult, disguising myself as someone who really cared about them.

* That was before I decided it was time to get serious about
my life and I embarked on a new career.

* I wrote a book about my struggles growing up. It was clear
to those who read my memoirs that I had difficulties accepting that my
father abandoned me as a child.

* I became active in local politics in my 30's then with help
behind the scenes, I literally burst onto the scene as a candidate for
national office in my 40s. They said I had a golden tongue and could
talk anyone into anything. That reinforced my conceit.

* I had a virtually non-existent resume, little work history,
and no experience in leading a single organization. Yet I was a
powerful speaker and citizens were drawn to me as though I were a
magnet and they were small roofing tacks.

* I drew incredibly large crowds during my public
appearances.. This bolstered my ego.

* At first, my political campaign focused on my country's
foreign policy. I was very critical of my country in the last war
and seized every opportunity to bash my country.

* But what launched my rise to national prominence were my
views on the country's economy. I pretended to have a really good
plan on how we could do better and every poor person would be fed &
housed for free.

* I knew which group was responsible for getting us into this
mess. It was the free market, banks & corporations.. I decided to
start making citizens hate them and if they were envious of others who
did well, the plan was clinched tight.

* I called mine "A People's Campaign" and that sounded good
to all people.

* I was the surprise candidate because I emerged from outside
the traditional path of politics & was able to gain widespread popular
support.

* I knew that, if I merely offered the people 'hope' ,
together we could change our country and the world.

* So, I started to make my speeches sound like they were on
behalf of the downtrodden, poor, ignorant to include "persecuted
minorities" like the Jews. My true views were not widely known & I
needed to keep them unknown, until after I became my nation's leader.

* I had to carefully guard reality, as anybody could have
easily found out what I really believed, if they had simply read my
writings and examined those people I associated with.

* I'm glad they didn't. Then I became the most powerful man
in the world. And the world learned the truth.

*Who am I? *

ADOLF HITLER

WHO WERE YOU THINKING OF?
Scary isn't it?

OBAMAYOMAMA Tall Tale Inventory #2:

2010-01-24T05:54:00.000-07:00

A short review of facts surrounding "I inherited". It puts the "I inherited a deficit" to bed big time.

The Washington Post babbled again today about Obama inheriting a huge
deficit from Bush, blah, blah, blah. Amazingly enough, a lot of people swallow this nonsense.

So once more, check this short civics lesson.

Budgets do not come from the White House. They come from Congress, and the party that controlled Congress since January 2007 is the Democratic
Party. They controlled the budget process for FY 2008 and FY 2009, as
well as FY 2010 and FY 2011. In that first year, they had to contend
with George Bush, which caused them to compromise on spending, when Bush somewhat belatedly got tough on spending increases. For FY 2009, though, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid bypassed George Bush entirely, passing continuing resolutions to keep government running until Barack
Obama could take office.

At that time, they passed a massive omnibus spending bill to complete the FY 2009 budgets. And where was Barack Obama during this time? He was a member of that very Congress that passed all of these massive spending bills, and he signed the omnibus bill as President to complete FY 2009.

Let's remember what the deficits looked like during that period:

If the Democrats inherited any deficit, it was the FY 2007 deficit, the
last of the Republican budgets. That deficit was the lowest in five
years, and the fourth straight decline in deficit spending. After that,
Democrats in Congress took control of spending, and that includes Barack
Obama, who voted for the budgets.

If Obama inherited anything, he inherited it from himself. In a nutshell, what Obama is saying is I inherited a deficit that I voted for and then I voted to expand that deficit four-fold since January 20th.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP OUR FACTS STRAIGHT AS THE MEDIA GOES WITH FEELINGS - AND PAINTS A PICTURE THEY LIKE.

The New Political Rumbling

2010-01-24T05:50:00.000-07:00

Massachusetts may signal an end to old ways of fighting.

What does the Massachusetts election mean? It means America is in play again. The 2008 election settled nothing, not even for a while. Our national politics are reflecting what appears to be going on geologically, on the bottom of the oceans and beneath the crust of the Earth: the tectonic plates are moving.

America never stops moving now.

Massachusetts said, "Yes, we want change, but the change we want is not the change that has been delivered by the Democratic administration and the Democratic Congress. So we will turn elsewhere."

We are in a postromantic political era. They hire you and fire you, nothing personal. Family connection, personal charm, old traditions, fealty to party, all are nice and have their place, but right now we are immersed in crisis, and we vote on policies that affect our lives.

It is not the end of something so much as the beginning of something. Ted Kennedy took his era with him. But what has begun is something new and potentially promising.

President Obama carried Massachusetts by 26 points on Nov. 4, 2008. Fifteen months later, on Jan. 19, 2010, the eve of the first anniversary of his inauguration, his party's candidate lost Massachusetts by five points. That's a 31-point shift. Mr. Obama won Virginia by six points in 2008. A year later, on Nov. 2, 2009, his party's candidate for governor lost by 18 points—a 25 point shift. Mr. Obama won New Jersey in 2008 by 16 points. In 2009 his party's incumbent governor lost re-election by four points—a 20-point shift.

In each race, the president's party lost independent voters, who in 2008 voted like Democrats and in 2010 voted like Republicans.

Is it a backlash? It seems cooler than that, a considered and considerable rejection that appears to be signaling a conservative resurgence based on issues and policies, most obviously opposition to increased government spending, fear of higher taxes, and rejection of the idea that expansion of government can or will solve our economic challenges.

And it's taking place within a particular context.

Speaking broadly: In the 2006 and 2008 elections, and at some point during the past decade, the ancestral war between Democrats and the Republicans began to take on a new look. If you were a normal human sitting at home having a beer and watching national politics peripherally, as normal people do until they focus on an election, chances are pretty good you came to see the two major parties not as the Dems versus the Reps, or the blue versus the red, but as the Nuts versus the Creeps. The Nuts were for high spending and taxing and the expansion of government no matter what. The Creeps were hypocrites who talked one thing and did another, who went along on the spending spree while lecturing on fiscal solvency.

In 2008, the voters went for Mr. Obama thinking he was not a Nut but a cool and sober moderate of the center-left sort. In 2009 and 2010, they looked at his general governing attitudes as reflected in his preoccupations—health care, cap and trade—and their hidden, potential and obvious costs, and thought, "Uh-oh, he's a Nut!"

Which meant they were left with the Creeps.

But the Republican candidates in Virginia and New Jersey , and now Scott Brown in Massachusetts , did something amazing. They played the part of the Creep very badly! They put themselves forward as serious about spending, as independent, not narrowly partisan. Mr. Brown rarely mentioned he was a Republican, and didn't even mention the party in his victory speech. Importantly, their concerns were on the same page as the voters'. They focused on the relationship between spending and taxing, worried about debt and deficits, were moderate in their approach to social issues. They didn't have wedge issues, they had issues.

The contest between the Nuts and the Creeps may be ending. The Nuts just got handed three big losses, and will have to have a meeting in Washington to discuss whether they've gotten too nutty. But the Creeps have kind of had their meetings—in Virginia , New Jersey and Massachusetts . And what seems to be emerging from that is a new and nonsnarling Republicanism. It may be true—and they will demonstrate in time if it is true—that they have learned from past defeats, absorbed the lessons, reconsidered the meaning of politics. Maybe in time it will be said of this generation of Republicans what André Malraux said to Whittaker Chambers after reading his memoir, "Witness": "You did not come back from hell with empty hands."

For Mr. Brown now, everything depends on execution. He made the Olympics. Now he has to do the swan dive, with a billion people watching. And then he has to do it again.

More Peggy Noonan

Read Peggy Noonan's previous columns

Click here to order her new book, Patriotic Grace

He needs to serve the country the way he campaigned for votes—earnest, open, not beholden to interest or party. And he needs to avoid the Descent of the Congressional Vampires, who'll attempt to claim his victory as their own and suck from his neck until he's a pale and lifeless husk. Not to understate. But they'll want him fund-raising and speaking all over the country, not knowing or perhaps caring that the best work he can do for his party is succeeding in the eyes of his constituents, who couldn't care less about the fortunes of the GOP. He needs to avoid the vampires in the nicest possible way. Maybe he should carry a little cross deep inside his breast pocket so they retreat without knowing why: "I tried to get him to Boca for the donor retreat but some invisible force stopped me! I ran backwards and slipped on the shiny marble floor! Mah hip is out! "

In a telephone conversation Wednesday night, Mr. Brown spoke of what's ahead. The conversation turned to the movie "The Candidate," to the moment Robert Redford wins the election and takes a top strategist aside to ask: "What do we do now?"

Mr. Brown laughed: "I know what I want to do: Go down there and be a good person, a good and competent senator. I have huge shoes to fill, the legacy is just overwhelming. I'm a consensus builder. . . . I can disagree in the daytime and have a coffee or beer later on. Everyone's welcome to their opinion."

He said he thought the president "inherited a lot of problems," that "he's doing a great job with North Korea , a nice job with Afghanistan ." A centerpiece of Mr. Brown's campaign was opposition to the president's health-care plan, but he stressed that he opposes high spending wherever it comes from. "I've criticized President Bush for his failure to use his veto pen. There's plenty of blame to go around. The question is how to solve problems. It's not bailouts. What made America great? Free markets, free enterprise, manufacturing, job creation. That's how we're gonna do it, not by enlarging government."

The next morning he took the 8 a.m. shuttle from Boston to Washington for his first trip to the Capitol. On the plane, after they took off, the pilot came on and said, "Senator Brown is on board, on his way to Washington ." The plane erupted in applause.

That's a good way to begin. It reminded me of 12 months before, on the shuttle to Washington , with a plane full of people on their way to the inauguration of Barack Obama. The pilot spoke of it, and the plane erupted in cheers.

That feels like another era. Because America keeps moving, the plates keep shifting, and execution is everything. Everything

Rethinking Bush: After the MSM’s Relentless Assault, the President Still Stands Proud

2010-01-24T05:41:00.001-07:00

The day before election day 2008, when all political commentary was flowing toward the candidates running for office, I used my column space to write a heartfelt thank you to President Bush (”An Election Day Note: Thanks, President Bush ^[1]“).

At the time even Republicans were using every trick in the book to distance themselves from the 43rd president. Even before the Florida recount of 2000 I told Wall Street Journal columnist John Fund that the Democratic Party — then led by the Clintons, John Podesta and a team of Whitewater-to-Lewinsky era smear artists including Sidney Blumenthal — would use President Bush as an example to Republicans as a thorough payback for Impeachment.

Florida was a sign of things to come as the left recognized that Bush’s friendly “uniter-not-a-divider” persona could easily be turned on its head. Ted Kennedy’s rejection of bipartisan spirit after he and Bush crafted the “No Child Left Behind” legislation foretold how all Democrats, save for Sen. Joe Lieberman, would treat the 43rd president: with graceless contempt.

The mainstream media did everything in its power to reinforce the Clintons’ revenge wishes and the far left’s political desires in making sure that Bush’s humanity was constantly on the ropes. The easy media template of Bush being stupid and evil were propaganda staples of the period of 2000 to 2008, with a disturbingly short reprieve after 9/11, when the Democrats had to temporarily suspend hostilities to feign patriotism as they held hands and sang songs. We all know how long that lasted.

The basis of the Bush attack machine was crass political opportunism mixed with revenge, and Bush’s greatest shortcoming was that he rejected defending himself and instead committed himself to doing what he thought was in the best interests of the country. I always believed in the man’s sincerity, whether I agreed with him or not. No amount of Goebbels-like rants from the media could persuade me that George W. Bush wasn’t a decent man. And my perpetual defense of him was and is less a defense of his policies — many of which, including his wartime leadership, I completely supported — but as protective mechanism against the inordinately rigged political and media systems, the Democrat Media Complex, as I have long called it.

No, the simple fact was that media deliberately and malevolently sustained a false caricature of Bush in its pages and on its broadcasts in order to bog down the leader of the free world when he needed all the help he could get, and a time when the country was in great danger. The continuum of media-legitimized Bush hatred directly resulted in the Obama candidacy which was framed by the media as the antidote to Bush’s “toxicity.”

One year into the Obama Administration, one thing is clear. The American presidency is a tough job. One can only wonder how much more successful President Bush’s presidency could have been if the media mandarins weren’t hell bent on providing a pathway for their favored Democrats to regain power. Now that the Democrats control everything it’s interesting to note how closely Obama is toeing Bush’s line on the war in Afghanistan, and how unsuccessful the new president is in rationalizing giving rights to enemy combatants. Maybe Bush wasn’t so dumb after all.

That’s what I’ve thought all along. A year after he left office, it looks more and more like others will now not only start appreciating our 43rd president, they might start wishing they helped him when he had the toughest job in the world and they could only wish him ill.

Once again: thanks, President Bush.

Article printed from Big Journalism: http://bigjournalism.com

URL to article: http://bigjournalism.com/abreitbart/2010/01/20/rethinking-bush-after-the-msms-relentless-assault-the-president-still-stands-proud/

Obama's Failed Freshman Year

2010-01-16T21:32:00.000-07:00

Washington Times

Originally published 05:45 a.m., January 4, 2010,

updated 10:35 a.m., January 4, 2010

President Obama's freshman-year foreign policy was the worst in living memory. At the dawn of 2010, the United States finds itself noticeably weaker in international affairs than it was when Mr. Obama took office, and there are no signs of improvement in the year ahead.

Mr. Obama was elected with almost no national security experience, but he counted on two principle sources of leverage on the world stage: his personal charisma and the fact that he was not George W. Bush. The year began with much swagger and self-assurance, but the result was a foreign policy with the naive enthusiasm of someone who once may have taken a graduate seminar in international relations.
Mr. Obama's first-week pledge to close the detainee facility at Guantanamo Bay within a year set the tone for 2009. It was a victory of symbolism over substance that proved to be more difficult to implement than he expected, and Mr. Obama soon found that it was easier to make lofty promises than to deliver prudent policies.
Other failures followed. Efforts to regionalize a peace process in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India foundered on the rocks of entrenched national interests. The president announced a "stronger and smarter" strategy for Afghanistan in March, and another in November that contained a deadline which is not quite a deadline, for a pullout that is not really a pullout.
Mr. Obama's unprecedented, fawning outreach to the Muslim world has produced no tangible results, no dramatic shifts in public opinion regarding U.S. policies, and certainly no reduction of the terror threat. This was brought home by the attempted Christmas Day bombing that literally almost ended the year with a bang. Al Qaeda views Mr. Obama with outright contempt, offensively declaring him to be a "house Negro" in contrast to purportedly "honorable black Americans" like Malcolm X.
The one solitary success Mr. Obama has enjoyed came from continuing President Bush's policy of using drone aircraft for selective strikes on terror targets. Philip Alston, United Nations Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial, Summary or Arbitrary Executions, has said that this practice may violate international law, and it has caused some consternation among Mr. Obama's supporters who were under the mistaken impression that he is a man of peace.
Mr. Obama's outreached hand failed to uncurl Tehran's fist; Iran's Islamic regime is pushing ahead on its nuclear and missile programs and unleashing thugs to beat down pro-democracy demonstrators. When Mr. Obama spoke dreamily in September about a world without nuclear weapons, French President Nicolas Sarkozy noted sharply that the only things such proposals have delivered are "more uranium enrichment and declarations by the leaders of Iran to wipe out a U.N. member state off the map."
The Israeli-Palestinian peace process stalled due to a combination of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's grit and a divided, ineffective Palestinian leadership. In May, Israel ignored the administration's demand for a settlement freeze, and the Arab world was shocked when Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton backed off the freeze demand in November. The administration quickly walked back Mrs. Clinton's statement, which only enhanced the sense of American confusion and impotence.
The Obama administration flip-flopped in dealing with the presidential crisis in Honduras, unwisely rushing to side with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua in calling for return of failed dictator Manuel Zelaya. Then, months later, the United States supported the results of the Honduran elections.
The administration delighted Moscow by abandoning the missile defense system slated for deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic. North Korea continued to pursue its objectives unabated, testing a nuclear weapon and long-range missile, withdrawing from the 1953 armistice agreement with South Korea and declaring it will weaponize its plutonium stocks. In response, the United States unilaterally conceded to long-standing North Korean demands for bilateral talks, and several weeks ago the president sent a personal appeal to dictator Kim Jong-il to which he has not received a response.
The Copenhagen climate conference turned out to be a dismal failure. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao openly snubbed the president, and the final statement which Mr. Obama brokered was not approved by the conference.
Other embarrassing Obama moments on the world stage include: giving England's Queen Elizabeth II an iPod with his own speeches on it; giving British Prime Minister Gordon Brown a collection of DVDs that were not formatted to the European standard (by contrast, Mr. Brown gave Mr. Obama an ornamental desk-pen holder made from the oak timbers of Victorian anti-slaver HMS Gannet, among other historically significant gifts); calling "Austrian" a language; bowing to the Saudi king; bowing to the Japanese emperor; releasing a photo of a conference call with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which the president was showing the soles of his shoes to the camera (an Arab insult); saying "let me be absolutely clear. Israel is a strong friend of Israel's"; saying the United States was "one of the largest Muslim countries in the world"; suggesting Arabic translators be shifted from Iraq to Afghanistan where Arabic is not a native language; sending a letter to former French President Jacques Chirac when Nicolas Sarkozy was the president of France; holding a town-hall meeting in France and not calling on a single French citizen; referring to "Cinco de Cuatro" in front of the Mexican ambassador when he meant Cinco de Mayo; and failing in a last minute personal appeal to the International Olympic Committee to hold the 2016 Olympics in Chicago. Mr. Obama's Nobel Peace Prize capped the year by drawing attention to his lack of achievement.
The world is a tough neighborhood. President George W. Bush was not loved, but he was feared, which Machiavelli advises is a more durable position. Mr. Obama has sought only to be loved, but in the process has disappointed America's allies and encouraged our adversaries. The world has the measure of the man in the White House, and he doesn't measure up to the task at hand. Unless he shows a stronger hand, Mr. Obama will continue to increasingly follow global events rather than lead them.

10,000 TROOPS BEING SENT TO HAITI

2010-01-16T21:26:00.000-07:00

U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen said Jan. 15 that
the United States is sending more helicopters and a hospital ship to
Haiti and that there will be 9,000 to 10,000 U.S. troops either on the
ground in Haiti or off its coast by Jan. 18, the BBC reported.

MONTENEGRO, KOSOVO: RELATIONS ESTABLISHED
Montenegro and Kosovo have established diplomatic relations through an
exchange of letters between Montenegrin Foreign Minister Milan Rocen and
Kosovo counterpart Skender Hiseni, Xinhua reported Jan. 15, citing the
Montenegrin government. Meanwhile, Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic
called back Serbia's ambassador to Montenegro in protest to the
establishment of relations with Pristina, saying that it disrupts
regional stability, said the Serbian Foreign Ministry in a statement.

ANGOLA: SUIT FILED, INVESTIGATION OPENED IN TOGO TEAM ATTACK
Angola has filed a criminal lawsuit against an unnamed Angolan citizen
for the attack of the bus carrying Togo's national soccer team, Xinhua
reported, citing news agency Ago. Meanwhile, France's public prosecutor
has opened an investigation of Rodrigues Mingas for justifying terrorist
acts; he reportedly leads a cell of the Cabinda separatist group that
attacked the bus. The suit has been filed in the judicial organs of
France and Switzerland.

GUINEA: A TRANSFER OF POWER
Summary
Wounded Guinean military junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara handed power
to his National Council for Democracy and Development deputy Gen.
Sekouba Konate in a Jan. 15 agreement that promised the establishment of
a transitional government and democratic elections in six months. The
deal all but ends Camara's chances of taking back power in his country
after a Dec. 3 coup attempt.

Analysis
The top two figures in Guinea's ruling military junta, the National
Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD), issued a radio address
Jan. 15 that effectively signaled the end of former CNDD leader Moussa
Dadis Camara's chances to regain power in Guinea. According to the
statement -- the product of an agreement signed in Burkina Faso's
capital Ouagadougou by Camara, his former CNDD deputy Gen. Sekouba
Konate and Burkina Faso President Blaise Compaore, who was mediating
talks -- Camara is "willingly taking a period of convalescence" in
Burkina Faso. Camara also agreed to allow Konate to return to Guinea to
steer the country back to civilian rule as head of the CNDD. In
addition, the agreement called for the establishment of a transition
government in the run-up to democratic elections, slated to be held
within six months.

Camara's days as the head of the ruling junta are thus likely over,
while Konate, who has been Guinea's de facto leader since Camara was
flown to Morocco for medical treatment following wounds received during
a failed Dec. 3 coup attempt, will now begin to formally consolidate his
grip over Guinea.

Following Camara's hospitalization in Morocco, Konate was summoned back
to Guinea from a foreign visit to take the reins of leadership. Security
was tightened in the aftermath of the failed coup, led by Camara's
former aide-de-camp Lt. Aboubacar "Toumba" Diakite, who remains at large
after shooting Camara in the head. Rumors of Camara's return to Guinea
began to circulate late Jan. 12, when the former CNDD leader was flown
from Morocco to Burkina Faso. The news prompted Konate and other leading
CNDD figures to fly to Ouagadougou for consultations with their former boss.

Reports that Camara was furious at having been duped into flying into
Burkina Faso, rather than Guinea, indicated that he still harbored
ambitions of regaining his former top post in the Guinean capital of
Conakry. Other elements of the CNDD openly favored his return, leading
to friction with Konate, who threatened to resign Jan. 14 should Camara
be allowed back into the country, adding that such a move would threaten
war. However, just one day later, Camara was persuaded to sign the deal
conceding power to Konate. According to the public radio address
announcing the agreement, all elements of the CNDD allegedly are in
support of the transfer of power.

The CNDD is an organization so full of internal divisions that it is
unlikely all of its members will support the official ascendancy of
Konate. During Camara's roughly yearlong stint in power, he repeatedly
warned that the greatest threat to his position was not from the
country's opposition forces or outside powers trying to topple the
government, but rather from rogue soldiers within the junta itself.
Konate will be forced to maintain a heightened sense of alert to prevent
a coup attempt against his position similar to the one that led to
Camara being shot.

Members of Guinea's opposition likely will receive the news well, as
Konate previously had agreed to grant them the post of prime minister in
a new government. On the same day the Jan. 15 agreement was signed in
Ouagadougou, opposition leaders announced two proposed candidates for
this post and asked that Konate choose between them -- thereby giving
Konate effective control not only over the ruling junta but also the
civilian transitional government that will be established in the run-up
to elections, set to be held sometime before the end of July. Konate
thus has situated himself to be able to legitimize his rule through
influencing any elections that may occur. But in Guinea, a country that
has been ruled by a series of military dictatorships since attaining
independence from France in 1958, it is probable that any such elections
will be delayed or not held at all.

YEMEN: WHITTLING AWAY AT AQAP
On Jan. 15, unnamed officials from Yemen's Ministry of Defense, citing
security forces, announced the death of six high-ranking members of al
Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) after an airstrike in the northern
region of Alajasher. Among the dead, according to the report, was AQAP
military commander Qasim al-Raymi. If true, al-Raymi's death would be a
major blow to the al Qaeda node in Yemen, though there is little
evidence to suggest that the group will not continue to be a significant
domestic and regional threat.

The Defense Ministry's announcement, which appeared on its official Web
site, said the missile strike was carried out Jan. 15 by the Yemeni air
force on a two-car convoy in the Alajasher region, which is located in
the eastern province of Saada. Al-Raymi was said to have been the
primary target of the strike. The five others reportedly killed included
high-level AQAP operatives Ammar Ubadah Al-Waeli, Ayeth Jaber Al-
Shabwani and Saleh Al-Tayes. Two al Qaeda operatives managed to escape
and currently are being hunted by Yemeni counterterrorism units.

If al-Raymi (aka Abu Hurayrah al-San'ani) has, in fact, been killed, his
death would be a significant victory in the joint U.S.-Yemeni operations
that are intensifying against the al Qaeda node. Al-Raymi, who has been
involved with al Qaeda in Yemen for some time, formerly worked directly
under the node's current top leader, Nasir al-Wahayshi. Al-Raymi has
been linked to attempted attacks on foreign embassies in Sanaa and was
part of a 10-man team responsible for a vehicle-borne improvised
explosive attack in the eastern province of Marib that killed eight
Spanish tourists in July 2007.

He also was one of 23 escapees from a Sanaa prison in February 2006 and,
in June 2007, appeared in a video on an Islamist Web site announcing
that al-Wahayshi, a fellow escapee, was the newly appointed head of al
Qaeda in Yemen. Al-Raymi subsequently appeared in a January 2009 video
posted on Islamist Web sites, alongside al-Wahayshi and deputy Said al-
Shihri, announcing the formation of the AQAP node.

The Jan. 15 airstrike in Alajasher bears a striking resemblance to a CIA
predator drone strike on former al Qaeda in Yemen leader Abu Ali al-
Harithi and five confederates in November 2002 in the eastern province
of Marib. Though Sanaa is claiming direct responsibility for the strike,
there are indications that this may not be true. Yemen's air force is
not exactly known for its ability to carry out precision airstrikes,
which require quick intelligence gathering and an instant response. If
the United States carried out the strike, Yemen would most likely deny
any American involvement to prevent the sort of domestic backlash that
resulted from the 2002 strike in Marib.

The Ukraine--16 Jan 10

2010-01-16T21:20:00.001-07:00

Ukraine is preparing for its long-awaited presidential election Jan. 17.
The election will bring about the end of President Viktor Yushchenko's
time in office and his pro-Western movement, which took power during the
2004 Orange Revolution. We have identified the top candidates in
the election as having close ties with Russia -- a fact that gives
Moscow the ability to pull Ukraine back into its fold no matter who wins.

Though it is clear a large shift will occur in Ukraine after the
elections, Ukrainian politics and elections are never easy, smooth or
peaceful. Political complications and protests
in the streets before the election and will continue keeping an eye on
developments after the election.

Political machinations are a given in Ukraine, as elections at any level
are chaotic. There are three main potential moves that
could alter the election's outcome:

Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko is currently polling second behind
former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich. She already has said that if
Yanukovich wins the election in the first round, she might brand the
election fraudulent (as she did as part of the Orange Revolution in
2004), which could spark a drawn-out court battle over new elections. If
this occurs, watch what court Timoshenko chooses to hear her complaint,
since the Central Election Committee is filled with Yanukovich
supporters and the Constitutional and Supreme Courts are led by
Yushchenko supporters.
On Timoshenko's heels in the polls is former Economy Minister Sergei
Tigipko, part of leading candidate Yanukovich's pro-Russian Party of
Regions. Sources have indicated that if Tigipko surpasses
Timoshenko and comes in second, he could throw his votes to Yanukovich
to secure a party victory.
Sources have indicated that Yushchenko, Yanukovich and Russia
have been working surreptitiously on a deal that would keep the outgoing
pro-Western president in the government in some role to mollify
Ukraine's pro-Western regions. We now hearing that Yushchenko
is asking the pro-Western regions to refrain from voting so that
Timoshenko, who stands to gain the most votes in those regions, does not
benefit -- thus ensuring a Yanukovich win and a job for Yushchenko after
the election.

On the ground, protests already are being planned across Ukraine. These
protests could lead to violence (though large-scale violence does not
seem likely), despite government plans to increase security.

In Kiev, pro- and anti-Russian groups are planning to march outside the
Russian Embassy. Pro- and anti-Western groups plan to gather outside the
EU Mission and the U.S. Embassy. Protests in the most popular areas of
the city, like Independence Square, are banned from Jan. 9 through Feb.
5. Everyone is watching for an uptick in violence at the protests and to
see if either the pro-Western or pro-Russian demonstrators begin
shipping people in from outside Kiev to stage demonstrations. It will
also be important to note if any Russian youth groups, like the Nashi,
appear in Ukraine since they tend to raise tensions and increase the
probability of violence. Sources in Kiev say Ukraine's Interior
Ministry troops are on standby should they be needed to keep the peace
in the city.

Ukraine's western regions, like Lviv near the Polish border, will be
watched most carefully since they are the most heavily influenced by the
West and were a major center of the protests in the Orange Revolution.
Anti-Russian violence and local authorities' reactions should be watched
very closely.

Overall, the election in Ukraine is expected to be noisy and
complicated. Though there may be hiccups in the electoral process and
security situations on the ground, the main outcome of the election is
expected to still be in Moscow's favor, no matter the problems along the way.

The World Turns--Wed Night

2010-01-14T05:15:00.000-07:00

North Korea-South Korea: The head of the North’s delegation to the North-South military working group talks warned his South Korean counterparts to stop scattering anti-DPRK leaflets in North Korea from balloons. The warning stated that on 31 October last year took the North noted the daily escalating scattering of leaflets by the authorities of the South side and seriously warned that unless they take necessary measures to stop it, this will adversely affect the north-south relations beyond imagination.

As the ensuing report shows, the North appears to be desperate to earn cash. Economic ties with the South are not likely to be damaged during the current period of North Korean outreach. As for why South Korean groups persist in irritating the North; it’s the Asian way.

North Korea: Economics. Kyodo reported that North Korea is pursuing programs to restrain sales of raw minerals and ores to Chinese and other enterprises in favor of selling processed and refined metals. The North complains that Chinese enterprises are trying to secure natural resources and are going ''to exterminate them root and branch.”

At a conference in China last year, Kim Chol Jun, Director of the Economy Institute at the North Korean Academy of Social Sciences, disclosed the new more restrictive export policy for unprocessed natural resources. He said, ''Mineral resources are exported at high prices by processing them. Exports of cheap unprocessed goods are a loss to the state.''

North Korea has large iron ore deposits and is reported to be rich in rare metals including molybdenum and rare earth plus manganese and nickel. A South Korean Unification Ministry estimate values the North’s underground mineral deposits at about 6,984 trillion won (about 540 trillion yen). The North’s magnesite, a metal used for reducing the weight of automobile parts, is the world's largest at 3 billion to 4 billion tons.

For almost all of its independent existence, the North has been selling its mineral wealth at a bargain for the purchaser, usually Japan and China. Now it apparently is pursuing a strategy for investing in secondary industrial processing in order to increase the return.

This resembles the Stalinist heavy industry strategy that failed under Kim Il-sung, but technology and the minerals in demand have changed. The commentary in Kyodo did not mention who would be the primary investors. Russia is a good bet, along with Japan and South Korea. North Korea strongly resists becoming a protectorate of China and can count on South Korea to help it.

India-Jammu and Kashmir State: Troops have vacated all hospitals and schools in Jammu and Kashmir State because of the improving security situation there. During his visit to the State, Defence Minister AK Antony said that paramilitary police would take over more responsibilities from the army. He said that from mid-January they would be responsible for security on the key Jammu-Srinagar highway.

India is gradually normalizing the security situation there. Soldiers billeted in schools and hospitals get in the way of prosperity, now that security conditions are improving. The federal government has been slow to respond, but the Congress Party-led coalition has taken the risks necessary to accelerate return to normal business conditions in Kashmir.

Occasionally shooting incidents take place along the Line of Control or the international border. Last week a firefight took place near Jammu, in the southern part of the region. For old hands who remember the start of the Kashmir insurgency in the late 1980s, the lowering military profile in Kashmir is tonight’s good news.

Afghanistan: The United States has no direct contact with Taliban leaders, U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke said, Aaj TV reported 13 January.

Holbrooke said, however, that U.S. President Barack Obama has stated that Taliban who lay down their weapons will be welcomed in joining with the Afghan government for the betterment of Afghanistan. Holbrooke, accompanied by Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, made his comments at a press conference in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Holbrooke’s statement is odd. A search did not find President Obama to have made such a statement in that way, but President Karzai did. The US President might have the power, but not the authority, to welcome the Taliban into President Karzai’s government.

Holbrooke’s turn of phrase is likely to reinforce the Pakistanis in a mistaken belief that the US really is in control of the Afghanistan government. That message also will not play well in Kabul. Moreover, it reinforces the Taliban propaganda theme that Karzai is a puppet of the US.

Saudi Arabia-Yemen: Prince Khaled bin Sultan, Saudi Deputy Defense Minister said today that Saudi troops have regained control of a border village occupied by Yemeni Shia rebels since November. The Prince told state TV that four Saudi soldiers and "hundreds" of rebels were killed in the clashes and that the death toll of Saudi soldiers in the border conflict with Yemen's Huthi rebels now stands at 82.

Saudi operations against the Huthis began last November after rebels killed a Saudi soldier along the border.

Yemen: The Interior Ministry said Yemeni forces killed at least 19 rebels in the northern city of Saada and arrested another 20, indicating that Yemeni military operations against the Huthis also continue.

For the record. Asharq Al-Awsat reported today that Al Qaida has established three training camps in Yemen's Shabwa Province, citing informed, but unidentified Yemeni sources. The camps are former Aden Abyan Islamic Army camps located in the Jabul Kur region. Members of this group are suspected of participating in the attack on the USS Cole in Aden harbor in October 2000.

Al Qaida reportedly also is active in the regions of al-Bayda and Marib, southeast of Sanaa, and that "the people in the region know the location of these groups." The source also said that recently al Qaida has "attracted many young people."

This report has not been corroborated by other sources. Yemen has become a magnet for young would-be jihadists in the past few months.

Turkey-Israel: A second Israeli apology for rude diplomatic behavior towards the Turkish ambassador appears to have prevented a rupture in relations. Nevertheless, Turkey is asserting itself as a leader in the Muslim world, after nearly 100 years since the fall of the Ottoman Empire.

Assuming that Turkey accepts the latest apology -- it rejected a less formal apology earlier --

the planned visit by Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak to Turkey on Sunday should proceed. Turkey has long been an ally of Israel, but relations have deteriorated as Ankara has repeatedly criticized Israel for its offensive in Gaza a year ago.

Turkey: Prime Minister Erdogan said today that while he does not want to see nuclear weapons in his region, it would be unfair to ask one country to steer away from the weaponry and allow another to have them, The Anatolia News Agency reported. Speaking at Moscow State University, he said the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council should set an example in preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Erdogan appears to have consented to Iranian and other national nuclear weapons programs as long as Israel has a nuclear weapons program.

Ukraine: Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko accused rival presidential candidate, former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, of planning to commit electoral fraud in the elections on 17 January. Reuters reported. Timoshenko said Yanukovich's party is organizing a massive fraud operation in the eastern part of Ukraine – where pro-Russian support is strong.

Yanukovich denied the charge, saying that as an opposition candidate currently without a government post he has no power to falsify election results. Yanukovich is pro-Russian.

Pro-western incumbent President Yuschenko is running far behind Yanukovich. His goal of having Ukraine join NATO is likely to die with his presidency next Sunday. He failed to improve the living standards of Ukrainians. Yanukovich has promised to restore economic growth. This is a study in democracy.

The World Turns...China,Korea,Middle East, NATO

2010-01-13T05:03:00.001-07:00

North Korea: Reuters reported on 12 January that North Korea's Ambassador to China, Choe Jin Su, said Six Party Talks could resume only after the lifting of sanctions on North Korea and acceptance of its latest proposal for peace treaty talks. He said concluding a peace treaty can eradicate hostile relations between North Korea and the United States and rapidly advance denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. He added that if sanctions are lifted, Six Party Talks can resume immediately.

Today’s statement is a clarification of the North’s latest offer of talks. It reinforces the hypothesis that the leadership in Pyongyang has adjusted its negotiating strategy. The path to ending the North’s nuclear program runs through lifting sanctions and peace treaty talks. The North is offering what it considers a package deal to normalize conditions on the peninsula and remove the justification for a US military presence. It is not promising to give up nuclear weapons already built.

China: In a terse statement yesterday, Chinese media announced a successful test of a land-based ballistic missile defense system. The announcement contained no details that described the system or the test.

Apparently, something the Chinese launched worked because the US protested today that China did not give the United States prior notification of the test. The US has asked the Chinese Government to clarify its intentions for the intercept weaponry, Agence France-Presse reported, citing a statement from a Pentagon spokesperson. The statement said the US detected two missile launches, with an exo-atmospheric collision observed by space-based sensors.

Details in the public domain are incomplete. China is known to have fielded advanced Russian and advanced indigenously developed anti-missile systems. It also has land-based missiles capable of destroying satellites.

The timing suggests this is reaction to US plans to sell Taiwan advanced anti-ballistic missile systems and eight Perry-class frigates, which the US Navy no longer requires.

The Chinese warned the US against selling arms to Taiwan while expecting Chinese cooperation on other international issues. A commentary published by Xinhua warned of broader fallout from the Patriot missile deal. “Each time the United States has sold weapons to Taiwan, there has been huge damage to China-US relations,” said the commentary. “This US arms sale to Taiwan will be no exception.” US-Chinese relations are entering a period of increased tension in reaction to the arms sales.

Philippines: A Saudi man dressed as a pilot was arrested 12 January after entering a restricted area in the Philippines' primary airport, The News International reported, citing airport General Manager Alfonso Cusi. Cusi said the 19-year-old man misrepresented himself as a pilot of Saudia.

This might have no significance, but the Philippines has been a venue for testing new terrorist tactics in the past.

Pakistan-Afghanistan: Inter-Services Intelligence Director-General, Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, told the parliamentary Special Committee on National Security on 12 January that infiltration of militants from the Afghan border must be stopped for Pakistan to have peace, Dawn News reported. The drug mafia supports rebels who are causing unrest in Pakistan, Pasha said. The chair of the committee, Raza Rabbani, later briefed the media. The committee discussed the implications of the U.S. President’s Afghan policy and possible effects on Pakistani sovereignty, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported.

General Pasha is one of the leaders in the media counter-attack whereby Pakistan blames Afghanistan for Pakistan’s internal security problems.

Iran: An Iranian nuclear scientist and Tehran University professor, Masoud Ali-Mohammadi, was killed by a remote-controlled bomb outside his home in northern Tehran on 12 January. News agencies have claimed that "counter-revolutionary" agents, including those working with the US, MEK and "Zionist regime", were behind the attack, however ambiguities surrounding his death, as well as his political leanings, remain.

One brilliant and perceptive Reader questioned where was Iranian security that it failed to protect one of Iran’s nuclear scientists.

Czech Republic-NATO: Today, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Kohout said at a conference in Prague discussing the NATO alliance that Eastern European members hope to re-confirm Article 5 of the NATO charter, DPA reported. This is the article that commits all members to the proposition that an attack against one is an attack against all.

The US invoked Article 5 to obligate NATO members to fight with the US after the 9/11 attack. The newest members of NATO, especially the Baltic states, require reassurance about the wisdom of their commitment to NATO.

The Russians, under Putin, have not given up on recovering from NATO parts of the Soviet sphere of influence. The Eastern European NATO members are acutely aware of Russian intentions.

Honduras: The Honduran Congress discussed today the possibility of amnesty for all involved in the June 2009 coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya, Xinhua reported. Congressional leader Jose Saavedra called lawmakers into session for the discussion.

This must be especially frustrating for Zelaya since his party holds the largest bloc in the Congress.

Hon. James David Manning questions whether or not Obama ever attended Columbia. Recorded on Monday, 28 December 2009.

2010-01-11T17:00:00.001-07:00

Click the title in "red" to view video----how much money did he pay to get his fake degree ???

The World Turns---Middle East, Asia, Congo last night

2010-01-10T09:02:00.000-07:00

U.S.: ATTACK THREAT TO SUDAN, UGANDA FLIGHTS
U.S. embassy staff in Khartoum published a warning late Jan. 8 that
"regional extremists" were planning an attack on Air Uganda flights
between Juba, the capital of southern Sudan, and Kampala, Uganda,
Reuters reported Jan. 9. Uganda's army spokesman, Major Felix Kulayigye,
told Reuters that his country was always on alert, was taking
precautions and that there was no cause for alarm. Anne Itto, a senior
member of southern Sudan's dominant Sudan People's Liberation Movement,
said the region's security services would take care of the threat.

PAKISTAN: THE TIGHTROPE OF CONTAINING MILITANTS IN KARACHI
Summary
Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik said Jan. 8 that illegal
immigrants in Karachi must leave the city within 15 days and that any
remaining after that will be deported. Malik spoke the same day as an
explosion ripped through a house in western Karachi. The attack was
blamed on local militants trying to terrorize civilians, and it
underscored the threat militants pose in the city. Going after militants
in Karachi certainly is a priority for the federal and municipal
governments, but doing so without disrupting a fragile ethnic balance
will be a challenge.

Analysis
All illegal immigrants in Karachi must leave the city within 15 days,
and any remaining after that will be deported, Pakistani Interior
Minister Rehman Malik announced Jan. 8. The purpose of the crackdown is
to curb the growing militant threat in Karachi, the financial center of
Pakistan, the country's main seaport and a crucial node for U.S./NATO
supply lines to forces in Afghanistan.

However, there is little indication that foreigners actually are
involved in militant attacks in the city. An explosion at a house in
western Karachi Jan. 8 that was blamed on militants ultimately was
linked to a man from the Swat district in Pakistan's North-West Frontier
Province (NWFP). The "immigrants" to which Malik is referring are people
from Swat and other districts throughout the NWFP and the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and it would be difficult to justify
deporting them, seeing as how they still are Pakistani citizens. A
majority of these immigrants are ethnic Pashtuns, a group that is not
indigenous to the city of Karachi or the surrounding Sindh province.

Ethnic tensions between Pashtuns and Muhajirs (the primary ethnic group
in Karachi) have existed in the city for more than two decades. A
growing Pashtun population threatens the power of the local ruling
party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), whose base is the Muhajir
majority. The Pashtun population in Karachi is estimated to be 3.5
million, making up 29 percent of the city's total population.
Politically, the MQM cannot ignore a population of that size, so any
efforts to contain it are expected.

An increase in terrorist activity in Karachi provides a rationale for
doing just that. A series of explosions during the religious period of
Muharram, culminating in the Dec. 28 attack on a religious procession in
central Karachi, announced the arrival of violent militant activity in
the city. These attacks (including the Jan. 8 house explosion) give the
Karachi government an excuse to come down hard on the Pashtun population
-- which is blamed for harboring militants -- but such a move also could
create a backlash.

Indeed, the attacks are meant to illicit a response from the government.
It is very difficult to crack down on nearly one-third of a city's
population without causing ethnic conflict. While militants do pose a
significant threat to Karachi, the radicalized element of the Pashtun
population is relatively small. Karachi is a flourishing urban area that
attracts people from all over the country for economic reasons. Add to
that the physical security threat to millions of people throughout the
NWFP and FATA and the appeal of a city like Karachi can be quite strong.
A crackdown on militants there inevitably would affect the mainstream
Pashtun community and could ignite an already simmering animosity
between the Pashtun and Muhajir populations. The two groups continue to
exploit each other, using minor incursions from both sides (attacks by
militants and crackdowns by the MQM) to rally their own supporters.

The federal government is stuck between the MQM, which wants to crack
down on the Pashtun population, and the Pashtun people themselves. The
ruling Pakistan's People Party (PPP) relies on MQM support for its
coalition and has a strong national security interest in preventing
militants from establishing themselves in Pakistan's financial capital.
But the PPP also doesn't want to alienate the Pashtun population, which
makes up approximately 15 percent of Pakistan's population and forms the
base of the PPP's other key coalition partner, the Awami National Party,
which rules the NWFP.

The federal government, then, will be challenged to stop the spread of
militants in Karachi without destabilizing the city's precarious ethnic
balance and risking serious social unrest.

TURKMENISTAN, RUSSIA: NATURAL GAS FLOWS RESUME
Turkmenistan resumed natural gas flows to Russia Jan. 9, in line with a
Dec. 22 agreement between Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov
and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. The pipeline carrying Turkmen gas
to Russia was shut down for nearly nine months after it ruptured in
April 2009, when Russia decreased its imports without notifying
Turkmenistan, causing a pressure buildup in the pipeline. While the
pipeline was repaired almost immediately after the explosion, Russia did
not resume its imports because of a natural gas glut that spread
throughout Europe. Russia had used its Turkmen natural gas imports
primarily to supply European countries (at much higher prices), but once
the economic recession and a natural gas cutoff caused European demand
to plummet, Russia cut its imports from Turkmenistan.

Because Russia is Turkmenistan's primary market, and energy exports
account for most of Ashgabat's revenues, this development was of great
concern to the Turkmen government. Turkmenistan thus spent the past year
working on new energy projects, inaugurating pipelines to China in
December 2009 and then Iran in January. But Europe is now on its way to
an economic recovery (albeit a shaky one) and there are signs that its
energy demand may be increasing. Russia has thus agreed to resume
natural gas imports from Turkmenistan, with the contract stipulating a
flow of up to 30 billion cubic meters in 2010.

Although the contract is vague on how much natural gas Russia will take
in, the lull in flows to Russia has created a situation in which
Turkmenistan's natural gas supplies must be divided among three
competing countries. And while this is not much of an issue currently,
the allocation of Turkmenistan's resources could be a source of conflict
once demand levels pick up.

NIGERIA: NIGER DELTA CHEVRON PIPELINE ATTACKED
Gunmen caused an unknown amount of damage to Chevron Corporation's
Makaraba oil pipeline in Nigeria's Niger Delta, AP reported Jan. 9.
Government officials were investigating the attack, which apparently
happened in the morning hours of Jan. 8. A military spokesman said no
one had claimed responsibility for the attack and said soldiers were
working their way through the pipeline system to find damage. A Chevron
spokesman could not confirm the attack.

CHINA: WASHINGTON URGED TO CANCEL TAIWAN WEAPON SALES
A statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged Washington to cancel
plans to sell missile equipment to Taiwan, saying it would violate
China's security interests and severely undermine trust between U.S. and
Chinese militaries, AFP reported Jan. 9. The statement came hours after
China's Defense Ministry warned it reserved the right to take action if
the United States did not comply. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu
entreated the United States to recognize the "severe consequences" of
arms sales to Taiwan.

MALAYSIA: FOURTH CHURCH ATTACKED
Arsonists struck a fourth church on Jan. 9 in an ongoing row over the
use of the word "Allah" as a reference to the Christian God, Reuters
reported. Muslims protested at mosques on Jan. 8 after a court ruling
allowed a Catholic newspaper to use Allah in its Malay-language
editions. The protests sparked arson attacks against Christian churches,
including the latest attack on the Good Shepherd Lutheran Church in a
Selangor state suburb. Police are urging churches across the country to
increase security.

AFGHANISTAN: AL-BALAWI VIDEO AND THE AFGHAN-PAKISTANI JIHADIST NEXUS
Summary
The release of a video featuring alleged suicide bomber Humam Khalil Abu-
Mulal al-Balawi and Hakeemullah Mehsud on Jan. 9 raises questions about
the bomber's links to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and the complex
jihadist landscape.

Analysis
The alleged suicide bomber who blew himself up, killing seven CIA
officials, on Dec. 30 at Forward Operating Base (FOB) Chapman in the
eastern Afghan province of Khost, appeared with the leader of Pakistani
Taliban militant group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in a video
released by the TTP on Jan 9. In the video, Humam Khalil Abu-Mulal al-
Balawi, a Jordanian doctor turned jihadist, describes his background,
states his intentions and warns of additional such attacks. The TTP
chief, Hakeemullah Mehsud, sits quietly on his right.

For days, there has been speculation about the identity of the group
that was behind the attack on the CIA facility in eastern Afghanistan.
There have been multiple claims of responsibility -- including Afghan
Taliban and Pakistani Taliban -- and other names have been thrown
around, such as Ilyas Kashmiri and the Haqqani network. Today, however,
we have video footage of the alleged suicide bomber sitting alongside
the TTP chief issuing a statement in both Arabic and English, claiming
that he is going to undertake the bombing.

If the man in the video is indeed al-Balawi -- the bomber's father
acknowledged that it is his son, and to our eye he certainly bears a
strong resemblance to previously published photos of the Jordanian
physician -- then this video suggests he had close ties to the TTP.
Obviously, for the TTP this is a major PR move. The top Pakistani rebel
group is able to demonstrate to its supporters as well as its target
audience within Pakistan that it is a force to be reckoned with. But it
does not prove that the TTP masterminded the attack. While the militant
group has shown a tremendous capability for hitting major installations
using suicide bombers and multi-man assault teams, all of its activity
has been within Pakistan. Another point to consider is that the area in
Afghanistan's Khost province where FOB Chapman is located is the turf of
a different and far larger Afghan Taliban entity -- the Haqqani network.

An Arab militant like al-Balawi also is more likely to be linked to al
Qaeda than any local Pakistani group, which raises the question: Why
didn't he appear with an al Qaeda prime leader in a video disseminated
by al Qaeda prime's media arm, As-Sahab? Al Qaeda would want to take
credit for such a major hit against the CIA (more al Qaeda militants
have been killed by U.S. UAV strikes than have TTP fighters). But they
did not, and we have this video distributed by the TTP.

Additionally, the al Qaeda video message from Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, al
Qaeda prime's operations chief for Afghanistan and Pakistan, was more
supportive, rather than actually taking credit for the attack. There
does not appear to be a competition over al-Balawi and his attack.

Ultimately, the available evidence suggests that the hit against the CIA
is a one-off lucky strike and the TTP did not mastermind the plot per
se. Al-Balawi, in an attempt to join the jihadist landscape in Pakistan,
happened to run into the TTP, and things began to fall into place. Why
al-Balawi got in touch with the TTP specifically and not any other
jihadist group operating in the country can be explained by the fact
that the TTP is the single largest jihadist entity in Pakistan, thus the
most visible and approachable. It is not easy to make contact with
other, smaller groups, especially al Qaeda prime, which is obsessed with
operational security. The group is almost impossible to make contact with.

Al-Balawi's comments praising the TTP leadership -- both its founder
Baitullah Mehsud, who was killed in a U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle
strike on Aug. 5, and his successor, Hakeemullah, whom he was seated
next to in the video -- are very telling in terms of his acceptance of
them as his leaders. Furthermore, he introduces himself as an individual
who was offered a great deal of money by U.S. and Jordanian intelligence
to spy on the jihadists in Pakistan, but who opted to join the jihadists
instead.

His emphasis on the joint struggle of the ansar (supporters) and
muhajireen (immigrants) further shows that he was taken in by the TTP.
These Arabic terms refer to the indigenous jihadists who provide support
to foreign militants. Obviously, he is trying to claim linkage to the
Prophet Mohammed and his companions (the original muhajireen), who in
the year 622 emigrated from Mecca to Madinah. There they received the
support of the indigenous people, who then became Muslims after agreeing
to follow Mohammed (the original ansar), which marked the establishment
of the first Islamic state. Resorting to this analogy also indicates
that the TTP has not gained the ability to launch cross-border
operations in Afghanistan.

It appears that this is a singular case of an individual offering his
services to a specific group. By using his access to American
intelligence personnel, he was able to stage an attack. In other words,
the TTP is making use of a rare opportunity to try to project its
prowess beyond Pakistan's borders. Al-Balawi refers to his mission to
seek retribution for U.S. drone strikes that have killed scores of
jihadists in the Pakistani tribal belt as the first in a series of
revenge attacks outside Pakistani territory.

It is unlikely that the TTP, after making first contact with al-Balawi,
would have jumped at the opportunity. Initially, it would have been very
suspicious of the Jordanian to offer his services and claim that he had
access to U.S. intelligence. The TTP has experienced a series of CIA-run
drone strikes and has suffered the loss of its charismatic founder,
Baitullah. So they would have spent a great deal of time vetting al-
Balawi. Until they were convinced that he was who he claimed to be, they
would have been kept him at arm's length.

Eventually, al-Balawi gained the TTP's trust and was provided with the
logistical means to carry out the Dec. 30 bombing. The logistical
support of the TTP would not be sufficient to successfully pull off the
attack, given that Khost is well beyond the operational radius of the
TTP. In fact, the TTP operates in Pakistan because it is not a major
player in Afghanistan. Therefore, it is possible that other actors --
representatives from al Qaeda and the Haqqani network (the main group in
Khost) -- may have been involved in order to ensure the operation's success.

From the U.S. point of view, it is immaterial which specific group, of
the many groups within Pakistan that are engaged in attacks against the
United States and its interests in the region and around the globe, is
responsible for the attack. Therefore, this video does not really change
anything in the American need to engage in aggressive action inside
Pakistani territory. Nor does it change the fact that there are immense
risks to increasingly aggressive U.S. action in Pakistan, which could
make matters worse in terms of greater instability in the country.

That said, the video does provide Islamabad with an opportunity. The
Pakistanis can point to the video and say that they and the Americans
are fighting the same enemy; and they can try to get the United States
to cooperate against the jihadists in keeping with Pakistan's interests.
Washington's position has been that Islamabad is only interested in
fighting those groups that directly attack it and ignores those that
strike in Afghanistan. However, the complexity of the jihadist landscape
involving multiple overlapping relationships between the Pakistani
Taliban, Afghan Taliban, al Qaeda and other militant groups will
continue to prevent greater alignment between the United States and Pakistan.

NIGERIA: OIL FLOW REDUCED AFTER PIPELINE ATTACK
One day after security forces say gunmen attacked a Nigerian Chevron
pipeline, the company was forced to cut production by 20,000 barrels of
crude oil per day. Chevron confirms there was a breach on its Makaraba-
Utonana pipeline in Delta State, Nigeria on Jan. 8. A spokesman for the
Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said the group
supported the attack, but that its fighters were not involved.

Seven Lies in Two Minutes

2010-01-09T09:32:00.003-07:00

This may not last long---open and watch while you still can:

The World Turns---Asia/Middle East last night

2010-01-09T06:01:00.002-07:00

North Korea: The Daily NK reported today that the North Korean authorities held a Central Conference yesterday to commemorate the birthday of Kim Jong Eun, Kim Chong-il’s third son and heir apparent, apparently.

The Daily NK source said that, "The Central Conference was held in Pyongyang; related meetings and lectures in provinces were also held. While these commemorative events were only for cadres, there also were lectures for residents."

Like father like son, North Korean directives call Kim Jong Eun a youth general and another leader. He is “the nation's greatest fortune. Communist party leaders designated Kim Jong Eun's birthday as the nation's “most auspicious” holiday.

Note: neither Kim Chong-il nor any of his children ever served a day in a military unit, but the Party insists on referring to them as great generals. In North Korea, words mean what the party says they mean.

The order to celebrate the third son’s birthday was delivered to each party organization. From this day forward, 8 January shall be a national holiday.

The pace of the leadership transition has slowed, relative to the time after the elder Kim’s stroke. The significance of the report from the Daily NK is that the grooming of a successor from within the Kim family continues, but in a measured fashion.

Pakistan-Japan: Pakistani Defense Minister Mukhtar asked the Japanese government to reconsider its decision to terminate Japan’s fueling operation in the Indian Ocean on 15 January, Kyodo reported today. Mukhtar said Pakistan's navy will continue to patrol the sea lanes should Japan withdraw.

The Japanese operation has been based on Mumbai, India, not Pakistan., Odd.

Pakistan: Interior Minister Rehman Malik said a crackdown against foreigners will be launched soon in Karachi. The News International reported today that Malik asked illegal immigrants to leave within 15 days, warning that after this deadline they will be deported. He said Karachi will be cleared like Swat.

Reliable sources report that much of Karachi is a Pashtun enclave in Sindh Province that shelters Afghan and Pakistan Taliban leaders. Reportedly Mullah Omar removed to Karachi, fearing death by drone attack in Quetta, in Baluchistan Province.

The comparison to Swat is misdirected. Karachi will be exponentially harder to clean up that Swat ever was. Nevertheless, Malik’s announcement is tonight’s good news, assuming Malik follows up with action.

Pakistan-US: Too good to omit. The Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Kayani, said that only greater intelligence sharing between NATO and Pakistani forces about Taliban militants can eliminate militancy, the daily newspaper Dawn reported 8 January. Kayani made his request in a meeting with a four-member delegation from the U.S. Congress led by Senator McCain in Rawalpindi.

There seems to be special irony in Kayani’ s request, after the US President discounted the value of CT analysis and after Major General Flynn discounted the value of Taliban analysis. So what does Kayani want? Drone and satellite imagery, apparently. His own analysts will do the analysis.

Alternatively, Kayani just might have been taunting Senator McCain.

Iran: Armed assailants attacked a house where opposition leader Mehdi Karrubi was visiting in Qazvin, the BBC reported. Karrubi's Web site SahamNews posted that a group of 500 people from Basij bases surrounded Karrubi's residence, throwing stones and bricks, breaking windows and creating fear among residents. The Web site added that many of the assailants were armed and police could not disperse the crowd.

Anti-riot police arrived on the scene and helped Karrubi leave Qazvin for Tehran. His armored car was shot at and windows were smashed. The groups chanted insulting slogans against Karrubi and demanded that he leave the city. Karrubi left Qazvin.

The administration is obsessed with suppressing the opposition, which is a negative indicator about its self-confidence.

Somalia anti-piracy patrol: China Daily reported today that some 25 Chinese crew members kidnapped by pirates on 19 October returned to Qingdao, China, early 8 January. The crew of cargo ship De Xin Hai was held on board until 28 December.

Despite tough talk, the Chinese paid the ransom. One maritime analysis center proved that the salaries and fuel costs of a portion of the anti-piracy patrol is much more expensive than the cumulative annual costs of paying ransoms.

It is important to uphold the rule of law, but the anti-piracy patrol raises the pragmatic question of the price of maintaining the rule of law on the seas. The Chinese placed their vote by paying the ransom.

Its weak point is that implementation relies on the same people who failed, twice.

The two most extraordinary Presidential directives to the Director of National Intelligence have received no media coverage. The first is to “take further steps to enhance the rigor and raise the standard of tradecraft of intelligence analysis …” In other words, the analysts failed. They need more rigor in their analyses and better “tradecraft.”

The intent of the directive is clear, but its execution is problematic. Analytical trade craft is in the dock. Commentators and very experienced practitioners frequently cite the “new” challenges in this “new” form of war. (Counter-insurgency is hardly new.)

The pubic is bombarded with “Newness,” but no transformation has occurred.

The intelligence failings cited by the President and cited by General Flynn are not failings of insight about new threats; they are the longstanding failings of complaisant analysts and supervisors, who shirk their responsibilities.

The 1978 HPSCI report on Warning found that in every crisis since Pearl Harbor, there always was enough information for competent analysts to issue actionable warning. The intelligence failures of the post-World War II era and the Cold War always were failures of analysts, not collectors and not systems.

President Obama’s statement repeats those findings in spades, 32 years later!

If it means anything, analysis transformation has to mean creation of a systematic, structured approach to analysis that always and everywhere is replicable, audit-able, non-idiosyncratic and non-anecdotal and which has application across boundaries and groups.

There are few lessons for young analysts in idiosyncratic and anecdotal personal expertise. No one can live another person’s experiences and experts seldom agree on the significance of their experiences. So how can that mess be taught? Intelligence must escape this trap.

“Expertise is necessary but not enough” to achieve actionable warning. To that assertion must now be added that sharing is not enough.

High predictability and the ability to warn in an actionable time frame require knowledge of threat phenomenology, the study of which has been neglected, except possibly at the tactical level. For example, two pieces of evidence – payment in cash for a transatlantic air trip and without checked luggage -- are the embodiment of actionable, phenomenological data.

Cash and no bags are universal red flags of threat that create a reasonable suspicion that justifies, nay compels, fail-safe security measures. This should be a “no-brainer.“

The other Presidential directive of special interest is, “Ensure resources are properly aligned with issues highlighted in strategic warning analysis.” The President issued a new directive on strategic warning analysis; not risk management, but warning. That has not happened since before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

One odd thing, though, is that the Defense Department and all its agencies, except the National Security Agency, received the directive but no direct guidance. DoD has more counter terrorism analysts in its national-level agencies and in the combatant commands than all the other agencies combined. Hmmm…

The Truth Hurts

2010-01-09T05:51:00.000-07:00

THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BEWEEN OSAMA AND OBAMA ONE IS TRYING TO DESTROY AMERICA, THE OTHER IS SUCCEEDING

The Obama Trifecta:What is even worse about this specific trifecta is that it is almost totally ignored by the elite media.

2010-01-08T18:02:00.000-07:00

The Obama Trifecta:

President Obama just completed the UNHOLY and ANTI-AMERICAN TRIFECTA:

1st president in 110 years to miss the annual Army-Navy Football Game.
1st president to not attend any Christmas religious observance.
1st president to stay on vacation after a terrorist attack.

Letter from Grandpa - priceless.... Share this with your friends…and maybe your kids/grandkids too.

2010-01-08T17:53:00.000-07:00

John G. is 63 years old and owns a small business. He's a life-long Republican and sees his dream of retiring next year has all but evaporated. With the stock market crashing and new taxes coming his way, John assumes now that he will
work to his dying day.

John has a granddaughter. Ashley is a recent college grad. She drives a flashy hybrid car, wears all the latest fashions, and loves to go out to nightclubs and restaurants.
Ashley campaigned hard for Barack Obama. After the election she made sure her grandfather (and all other Republican family members) received a big I told-you-so earful on how the world is going to be a much better place now that her party is taking over.

Having lost both roommates, Ashley recently ran short of cash and cannot pay the rent (again) on her 3 bedroom townhouse. Like she has done many times in the past, she e-mailed her grandfather asking for some financial help.

Here is his reply:

Sweetheart,

I received your request for assistance.

Ashley, you know I love you dearly and I 'm sympathetic to your financial plight. Unfortunately, times have changed. With the election of President Obama, your grandmother and I have had to set forth a bold new economic plan of our own... "The Ashley Economic Empowerment Plan." Let me explain.
Your grandmother and I are life-long, wage-earning tax payers. We have lived a comfortable life, as you know, but we have never had the fancier things like European vacations, luxury cars, etc. We have worked hard and were looking forward to retiring soon. But the plan has changed. Your president is raising our personal and business taxes significantly. He says it is so he can give our hard earned money to other people.

Do you know what this means, Ashley? It means less for us, and we must cut back on many business and personal expenses. You know the wonderful receptionist who worked in my office for more than 23 years? The one who always gave you candy when you came over to visit? I had to let her go last week. I can't afford to pay her salary and all of the government mandated taxes that go with having employees. Your grandmother will now work 4 days a week to answer phones, take orders and handle the books.. We will be closed on Fridays and will lose even more income to the Wal-Mart.

I'm also very sorry to report that your cousin Frank will no longer be working summers in the warehouse. I called him at school this morning. He already knows about it and he's upset because he will have to give up skydiving and
his yearly trip to Greenland to survey the polar bears.

That's just the business side of things. Some personal economic effects of Obama's new taxation policies include none other than you. You know very well that over the years your grandmother and I have given you thousands of
dollars in cash, tuition assistance, food, housing, clothing, gifts, etc., etc. But by your vote, you have chosen to help others -- not at your expense -- but at our expense.

If you need money now sweetheart, I recommend you call 202-456-1111. That is the direct phone number for the White House. You yourself told me how foolish it is to vote Republican. You said Mr. Obama is going to be the
People's President, and is going to help every American live a better life. Based on everything you've told me, along with all the promises we heard during the campaign, I'm sure Mr. Obama will be happy to transfer some
stimulus money into your bank account. Have him call me for the account number which I memorized years ago.

Perhaps you can now understand what I've been saying all my life: those who vote for a president should consider the impact on the nation as a whole, and not be just concerned with what they can get for themselves. What Obama
supporters don't seem to realize is all of the money he is redistributing to illegal aliens and non-taxpaying Americans (the so-called "less fortunate") comes from tax-paying families.

Remember how you told me, "Only the richest of the rich will be affected"? Well guess what, honey? Because we own a business, your grandmother and I are now considered to be the richest of the rich. On paper, it might look that way, but in the real world, we are far from it.

As you said while campaigning for Obama, some people will have to carry more of the burden so all of America can prosper You understand what that means, right? It means that raising taxes on productive people results in them having
less money; less money for everything, including granddaughters.

I'm sorry, Ashley, but the well has run dry. The free lunches are over.. I have no money to give you now. So, congratulations on your choice for "change." For future reference, I encourage you to try and add up the total value of the gifts and cash you have received from us, just since you went off to college, and compare it to what you expect to get from Mr. Obama over the next 4

(or 8) years. I have not kept track of it, Ashley. It has all truly been the gift of our hearts.

Remember, we love you dearly....but from now on you'll need to call the number mentioned above. Your "savior" has the money we would have given to you. Just try and get it from him.

Good luck, sweetheart.

Love,

Grandpa

CRACKS IN THE MIRROR....a Socialist empire begins to crumble

2010-01-08T16:55:00.003-07:00

Everyone watched the campaign trail of Obama, most knowing
it was all smoke and mirrors, the skilled act of a magician,
the smooth oratory of a professional liar. Now many are seeing
that the smoke is lifting, the strong breath of the American
People is blowing it away and the cracks in the mirrors are showing
for everyone looking to see.
Two of many notable examples are "The Obama Bow", to Heads of State
of Foreign Countries, lifting and thrusting his hips, showing his behind
and contempt to the American People. The first time "bowing" has every
been done in the history of the American Presidency. Another pushed reality
forward when the man responsible for the Ft. Hood Murders came to light.
Obama jumped to tell everyone "don't jump to conclusions" because of his
Muslim religion....did the fact that this same man was also one of Obama's
Campaign advisor's have anything to do with his concern for making
conclusions?
We have seen many "firsts" during this first year, but hope is on the
horizon. If the attrition continues in Congress, soon he will be rendered
void of any real power, reduced to endless vacations in Hawaii, playing his
golf games, state dinners with less than notable foreign figures who will laugh
at his poor jokes (laughing behind his back is more like it) and merely become
the figurehead, meaningless, shallow man that he is, who's harm to Democracy has ended.
You may ask "how and why" is this happening?
The answer is very simple, "You the People" who are sending endless letters
and emails to the lackeys in the House and Senate, reminding that "we" hold the
power and their continued course of action leaves them with only simple choices:
They, as some already have, can retire gracefully, abstain their vote during the
remainder of their time and leave with some dignity intact, or come next
November they will find themselves voted out, disgraced even in their own home
towns, looking for meager employment like everyone else in this country, enjoying
their new health care plan they put in place.
The Voice of the American People is being heard "loud and clear"
DO NOT STOP....The Freedom Bell is ringing through-out the Land !!

As The World Turns..Middle East and Europe News

2010-01-08T06:49:00.000-07:00

India-Jammu and Kashmir State: Two suspected Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Pakistan-based militants, who were killed by security forces in a hotel in Srinagar, had been in contact with their handlers in Pakistan while they were bottled up in the hotel, according to Indian Home Ministry sources who spoke with The Times of India. The Home Ministry sources said more attacks are expected.

India media outlets have been incrementally negative about Pakistan since mid-December when the Pakistan Supreme Court struck down Musharraf-era decrees. The negative Indian coverage seems to be a warning to Pakistan that it is under close scrutiny and to beware of using India as a scapegoat to divert public attention from internal stress in Pakistan.

President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani and Chief of Army Staff Kiyani all have bashed India, especially after India announced its adoption of a two-front defense strategy, for fighting Pakistan and China.

It is noteworthy and extraordinary that overnight Pakistan would almost automatically become more hostile to India after India named China as a future enemy.

Pakistan-US: The US Embassy in Islamabad released a statement on 7 January that US diplomats and employees in vehicles traveling in Pakistan are being detained and harassed by Pakistani police and authorities. The US Embassy has asked Pakistani officials to "cease these contrived incidents involving U.S. mission vehicles and personnel," the Associated Press reported.

Two Pakistani employees of a U.S. consulate on 6 January were detained in Baluchistan Province, the embassy statement said. A US Embassy spokesman said there is an agreement allowing US diplomatic vehicles to carry Pakistani license plates outside (and diplomatic plates inside) in an effort to avoid being easily targeted by militants. The spokesman said, "We're waiting for the agreement to be implemented." The spokesman also said U.S. Embassy employees are experiencing delays in having their visas approved by Pakistani authorities.

This is a low level registry of Pakistani hostility against Americans, in a passive aggressive behavioral style.

Iran-US: Admiral Mullen, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Washington think tank today that if Iran develops nuclear weapons -- a path he believes the country is on -- it could have a destabilizing effect on the Middle East, Reuters reported. He also told the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that an attack against Iran could have unintended consequences that may weaken the region.

The report of Admiral Mullen’s remarks is confusing. The theme of news leaks to the New York Times and other outlets, plus official statements since early December, has been to assure Iran that no attack against its nuclear facilities is imminent. The Admiral’s remarks threaten and reassure in the same statement.

Note to analysts: Long experience in strategic warning teaches that reassurance and vigilance cannot exist in the same space. Reassurance always negates vigilance. Thus a threat warning with a reassuring pat on the back is as useful as trying to teach a pig to sing: it sounds bad and annoys the pig.

After Secretary Clinton’s comments to reassure Iran this week, Admiral Mullen’s fence straddling statements probably were best left unsaid because they make the US appear indecisive and weak. Iran will understand them as another American bluff.

Iraq-Iran: Update. Iraqi President Talabani said today that his country remains close allies with Iran despite the recent border conflict, Earth Times reported. Talabani met with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, with Mottaki agreeing to tour the territory around a disputed oil well to facilitate a clearer demarcation of the countries' shared border.

When did Iraq become an ally of Iran?

France: Egyptian imam Ali Ibrahim el-Soudany was arrested in France and deported to back to Egypt on 7 January, French Interior Minister Brice Hortefeux said, as the Associated Press reported.. El-Soudany, who had been preaching in a Paris mosque, was accused of encouraging violence against the West during his sermons.

Every country has sedition laws, but the French apply them without resort to extraordinary tribunals or other suspensions of rights that are inconsistent with their constitution. The French have an admirable trait of taking their constitution seriously and enforcing it. That is tonight’s good news.

The American constitutional guarantee of free speech does not cover sedition, treason, incitement to rioting and falsely crying “fire” in a theater.

Honduras-US: Some people in the State Department cannot leave Honduras alone, despite a successful and peaceful presidential electon on 29 November. A US diplomat has arrived in Tegucigalpa to dictate terms for normalization of Honduran democracy?

Mr. Kelly talked with citizen Zelaya, with interim President Micheletti and president elect Lobo.

"Kelly assured me that his government does not support Micheletti and is seeking the possibility of the international community recognizing the new government", Zelaya said, referring to Lobo.

"Washington recognizes that I am president of Honduras," Zelaya said. Zelaya was speaking from self-imposed exile in the Embassy of Brazil.

Kelly said Honduras still had work to do before the US would accept the results of its election.!!

Micheletti's interim government has said Zelaya faces arrest on various charges if he leaves the Brazilian Embassy under any terms other than an asylum arrangement in another country. Zelaya's term ends 27 January. Zelaya is an embarrassment for the US and those who supported him.

The idea that a US bureaucrat is delivering terms to a sovereign state that has just had a peaceful election without US meddling is worth noting. Fortunately, President Obama had more important measures to consider.

An astute observation

2010-01-07T17:05:00.000-07:00

I'm giving you this very astute comment sent to me by a friend. Remember, this guy, who was injured in the process, potentially saved as many people as Captain Sullenberger of Hudson River landing fame. I'll bet you didn't remember Schuringa's name!

Where is Obama on this new terror attempt on Delta Flight 253? Why is he not heralding the valor of Jasper Schuringa, the passenger on this flight, who jumped the terrorist and prevented a major disaster? Why is not Mr. Schuringa flown to Washington and given the highest U.S. valor award for his heroic actions? Will he have to pay for the burn injuries he sustained out of his own pocket? Will he be prosecuted for felonious assault on the terrorist because he acted without official consent? Were the Constitutional rights of the terrorist violated by Mr. Schuringa? A bit facetious of me, of course, but not so far off base with this administration. Where are our elected officials who are silent about this attempt?

SURVIVAL—THE DEMOCRATS NEW REALITY SHOW

2010-01-07T10:12:00.001-07:00

The year 2010 has been thought of as a potentially difficult year
For Democrats. The retirements of three of their own has now boosted
Their anxiety. Two veteran Senators and a first term Governor, who
Gave surprise retirement announcements have brought home the reality
That “survival” for them in 2010 is now very grim.
The President’s inauguration put a grand euphoria amongst Democrats that
Has now disappeared. They now face the loss of their governing majority
In the House and Senate. This has sent a message that speaks to the
Nervousness of incumbents, especially Democratic incumbents, in a
Year of which voter dissatisfaction is palpable. The grand ship is leaking and
Jumping ship seems the safer venue for some.
The White House is now put on the defensive when this is coupled with the
Fast track “secret” talks behind closed doors which Obama has pushed
Congressional leaders despite his campaign promises of an “open process”
On health care talks that would involve “bringing all parties together, and broadcast
Those negotiations on C-Span so that the American people can see what the
Choices are."
When asked, Pelosi remarked, “there are a number of things he was for on the campaign trail."
This may or may not have been a “quip” by Pelosi but it shows the truth behind
Obama’s campaign.
On Wednesday, Gov. Arnold Schwarzeneger, said it best with “health care reform,
Which started as noble and needed legislation, has become a trough of bribes,
Deals, and loopholes.”
How much longer does America put up with the lies and secrets?

Events last night...07 Jan 09

2010-01-07T04:58:00.004-07:00

UN-Afghanistan: The UN special representative Mr. Eide told the UN that "negative trends" including growing impatience among the public both inside and outside Afghanistan characterize conditions in Afghanistan. "I am worried about increasing frustration in the Afghan public over what they see as expectations that have not been met. And I'm worried about the difficulties of the international and Afghan forces in putting the insurgency on the defensive.”

The unclassified sample shows no expansion of Taliban into new areas. There continue to be strong signs that even Pashtun sub-clans are weary of the Taliban penchant for burning schools for girls and clinics.

UN worries in Afghanistan have tended to manifest a UN conviction that it should have a larger role in the management of Afghan affairs. The comments always have “spin,” even when they are accurate. Eide is worried but the security situation has not worsened this winter, as yet, based on the unclassified data sample.

Iran-US: Update. Secretary Clinton today said the Obama administration remains open to negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program, though will move toward tougher sanctions if Iran does not respond positively. She stressed there was no hard-and-fast deadline for Iran. Responding, Iran's foreign ministry welcomed the comments.

Readers might wonder what purpose the Administration’s year-end deadline served. Iran called the American bluff and did what it wanted to do.

Saudi Arabia-Iraq: Update. The Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Abdulaziz Aal al-Sheikh, on 6 January, said Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was wrong to criticize Saudi religious establishments, Asharq Al-Awsat reported. Al-Sheikh said al-Maliki was mistaken when he claimed that official Saudi religious institutions espouse "a takfirist ideology." Al-Sheikh added that such mistaken claims "should not be made against a Muslim country that is well known for its goodness and moderation on all things."

The verbal brickbat exchange is just warming up.

Democratic Republic of the Congo: For the record. Almost 3,000 government employees have been sacked - or forcibly retired. President Joseph Kabila fired more than 100 people accused of corruption from the ministry of finance and other government departments. Hundreds of others - most of them managers - were forced to retire after being found to be working beyond pensionable age.

Budget Minister Michel Lokola said it was part of a fight against corruption. "The dismissal concerns any agent who has been involved in the bad management of public finances," he told Agence France-Presse.

It is not clear that Kabila has shrunk the government because at least 1,500 persons were promoted this month in anticipation of the dismissals, according to the BBC. There has to be some kind of tribal influence in this action.

Special Comment: There are limited comments on Major General Flynn’s report because the report already informs the Taliban and the Afghan English-reading population that US operations are blind, as one well-placed, highly experienced and dispassionate intelligence professional described in dismay.

The Taliban and the Afghan government are likely to conclude that US forces have been executing and continue to execute operations based on bad intelligence and general ignorance. That is an information operations and tactical intelligence cornucopia for the enemies of the Kabul government.

It represents a distressing admission for President Karzai’s government. This would help explain the proliferation of civilian casualties from Coalition ground and air operations that have resulted in increasing local support for the Taliban and public demonstrations. The admissions in the study could make people liable for war crimes before the International Criminal Court, which Afghanistan supports.

The report is advocacy, not an objective treatment of the intelligence support. It is fundamentally tactical, which is Central Command’s responsibility in the division of labor, not the responsibility of the national agencies. Moreover the report is myopic in focusing on Afghanistan and ignoring other larger national issues such as Iranian nuclear development, stability in Afghanistan, and North Korean proliferation.

It is a theater view as it should be. But the theater view has limits. The authors accuse the national agencies of failure without balance. The view from Bagram and Kabul is not the same as the view from Washington. North Korea really can attack US territory and our allies. Iran can attack Israel. Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Why should Afghanistan have higher call on the “best” analysts?

.These questions should raise red flags for Readers that the report has lots of “spin.”

The report raises a few useful points, such as the smarmy satisfaction that the Washington agencies adopt when they establish portals for handling requests for information, instead of doing the obvious base line work proactively and continuously in support of fellow citizens in combat. Responding to questions is not the same as providing support.

However, the authors seem to be naïve in their understanding of the division of labor among national agencies and between the center and the commands. The authors are flat incorrect in their description of the national intelligence community, its role and its primary customers.

The authors also seem to confuse strategy, policy and tactics. There is no blurring of lines about the use of information. Information has always had different uses at different levels of command. It troubling that some might think it is new, just because they had an epiphany.

Much of what is discussed is a rediscovery of what have been the basics of military intelligence for more than 60 years, albeit badly neglected in the past two decades. DIA once excelled at this work, for example. Claims about new ways of doing business that are in fact reinventions of old wheels are churlish and show a lack of historic grounding.

The report contains few new insights about the nature and needs of military intelligence in support of fighting an insurgency. Its attempt to distinguish conventional war is artificial and uninformed. This is old lore that some entities discarded and have forgotten. Nevertheless, new or old, the intelligence work has not been done, should have been done and needs to be done.

Intelligence has lost its way when it cannot support troops in combat. There is plenty of blame to go around. The key question is whether Flynn’s blueprint addresses the systemic, cognitive problems. The answer, lamentably, is no, it does not.

In the past 60 years, US intelligence has responded to intelligence failures with six standard responses. The first and most common is to reorganize. Every major intelligence failure has spawned organizational change as a remedy, regardless of the cause of the failure. The report has adopted that response, though it has camouflaged it elegantly with a sweeping public denunciation.

More than 60 years of experience in US intelligence proves that organizational change never remedies cognitive failure or management incompetence, neither of which are mentioned in the report, but which are what has victimized the general.

He seems to know what information is needed, apparently, but the report describes no plan for how to get it. New specialized teams and more layers are not serious solutions. The Command lacks the time to make the changes General Flynn wants and lacks the clout.

The careful reader is left with a list of anecdotal gripes, stories and many bromides. A few of these are valid for military intelligence, but many should be directed at the Department of State and other non-military agencies. The report spotlights tactical intelligence shortcomings accurately, but the blueprint for relevancy is never presented. For example, the US is still undertaking a strategic surge without having sized the enemy, the definition of operating blind.

Much more could be written about this report, but that would be telling the Taliban way too much.

Computer Warning....Spear Phishing Notice

2010-01-06T20:24:00.000-07:00

I am forwarding the following message that was just released by the Air
Force computer security folks.

SUBJECT: Spear Phishing Notice

OVERVIEW: A spear phishing attempt email is circulating on the
internet. The email has a subject line of "Federal Tax Law Changes for 2010 -
2017" and contains a .pdf file attachment with the same name. This
email takes advantage of a zero-day (meaning no security patch available
yet) within Acrobat Reader.

IMPACT: If the user opens the attached document, the system is compromised.

Please watch out for this and other emails from an unknown and/or un-
trusted source. You should not
to open up emails, especially ones with attachments, from an unknown source.

Social Security Issues....Congress "got me again".

2010-01-06T20:22:00.002-07:00

HERE IS ONE TO TWIST YOUR TWINKIE -- if you don't know how to curse yet, " I am certain you will after you read this one!"

According to the Trustees for the Social Security Administration,

"THERE WILL NOT BE A COST OF LIVING INCREASE FOR THE NEXT
TWO YEARS IN SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS. ADDITIONALLY THEY
WILL RAISE YOUR CO-PAY FOR YOUR RX MEDICARE BENEFITS!"

They, the Congress ( BOTH " REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATS TOGETHER ")
say no increase is warranted because of the losses in gross national product and
other cute things..

NOW HERE SPORTS FANS THIS IS THE ONE THAT WILL FLIP YOU OUT!! --

THE SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION IS FUNDING TWENTY FOUR
MILLION DOLLARS-- LET ME REPEAT THAT AMOUNT... SO YOU
UNDERSTAND IT $24,000,000.00 DOLLARS FOR NEW ELECTRONIC
MEDICAL RECORDS PROCESSING FOR OUR CONGRESSMEN AND SENATORS!!

THEY ARE OBTAINING THESE FUNDS and I QUOTE DIRECTLY FROM THE SOCIAL SECURITY WEBSITE................

"THIS MONEY WILL COME FROM THE SAVINGS TO BE
GENERATED FROM WITHHOLDING" COST OF LIVING INCREASES FOR
2010 & 2011 in SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS FOR THE ELDERLY
AND A $2.00 INCREASE ON ALL MEDICARE RX BENEFIT CO-PAY"

Please excuse my FRENCH, But do the words " BULL CRAP" ring a bell?

Please pass this to ALL your friends and have them "PROTEST TO THE IDIOTS WE ELECTED TO CONGRESS" who by the way, have just voted themselves ANOTHER 3% SALARY INCREASE!!!

We must put a stop to this outright thievery! It is THE CONGRESS AND THE SENATE, BOTH REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATS, WE CAN'T FIRE THEM, BUT WE SURE AS HELL CAN NOT RE-ELECT THEM, and WE CAN IMPEACH THEM or DEMAND RECALL ELECTIONS!!! HOW ABOUT WE ALL GET TOGETHER AND DUMP THESE CLOWNS.

Just watch. They will spend this money and find the software doesn't work, dump the whole thing and go back to the old steam driven system just like they did with air traffic control several years ago. Don't worry though, they've got health care all worked out.

IF YOU LIKE THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING IN OUR COUNTRY, THEN DO NOTHING.........

ECONOMIC PROFESSOR and the stimulus bill.

2010-01-06T20:17:00.001-07:00

Shortly after class, an economics student approaches his economics professor and says, "I don't understand this stimulus bill. Can you explain it to me?"

The professor replied, "I don't have any time to explain it at my office, but if you come over to my house on Saturday and help me with my weekend project, I'll be glad to explain it to you." The student agreed.

At the agreed-upon time, the student showed up at the professor's house. The professor stated that the weekend project involved his backyard pool.

They both went out back to the pool, and the professor handed the student a bucket. Demonstrating with his own bucket, the professor said, "First, go over to the deep end, and fill your bucket with as much water as you can." The student did as he was instructed.

The professor then continued, "Follow me over to the shallow end, and then dump all the water from your bucket into it." The student was naturally confused, but did as he was told.

The professor then explained they were going to do this many more times, and began walking back to the deep end of the pool.

The confused student asked, "Excuse me, but why are we doing this?"

The professor matter-of-factly stated that he was trying to make the shallow end much deeper

The student didn't think the economics professor was serious, but figured that he would find out the real story soon enough.

However, after the 6th trip between the shallow end and the deep end, the student began to become worried that his economics professor had gone mad The student finally replied, "All we're doing is wasting valuable time and effort on unproductive pursuits. Even worse, when this process is all over, everything will be at the same level it was before, so all you'll really have accomplished is the destruction of what could have been truly productive action!"

The professor put down his bucket and replied with a smile, "Congratulations. You now understand the stimulus bill."

World News---Afternoon---06 Jan 10

2010-01-06T20:14:00.002-07:00

GERMANY: SUBMARINE TALKS IN ADVANCED STAGE - ISRAELI SOURCE
Germany is in the advanced stages of negotiations about the Israeli
purchase of a new Dolphin class attack submarine, although Israel has
not paid for previous deliveries, Press TV reported, citing a Maariv
interview with an unnamed, senior Israeli source. The source said
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and German Chancellor Angela
Merkel are due to agree on the details of the deal on Jan. 18.

YEMEN: NO FOREIGN INTERVENTION WANTED - FM
Yemen does not want direct intervention by foreign troops as it battles
al Qaeda, but the government has accepted help from the U.S. forces in
training Yemeni counterterrorism troops, Yemeni Foreign Minister Abu
Bakr al-Qirbi said Jan. 6, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported. Al-
Qirbi said foreign intervention could set off a backlash that "will
usually be taken advantage of by opposition parties, by any militants in
the country," The Financial Times reported.

EU: EUROZONE'S INDUSTRIAL ORDERS DROP
The eurozone's new industrial work orders dropped 2.2 percent in October
on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with September, marking the end
of a six-month period of growth, The Financial Times reported Jan. 6,
citing data supplied by Eurostat.

CHINA, KENYA: COUNTRIES SHOULD FORM ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP - CHINA FM
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said Jan. 6 during a trip to Kenya
that the two countries should build an economic partnership to foster
mutual cooperation, Xinhua reported. During his trip, Yang met with
Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki, Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Foreign
Minister Moses Wetangula.

BOLIVIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS TO REQUEST REYES VILLA'S EXTRADITION FROM U.S.
The Bolivian government will request the extradition of former
presidential candidate and political opposition leader Manfred Reyes
Villa from the United States, EFE reported Jan. 6, citing a government
official. Reyes Villa reportedly left from Lima, Peru, to the United
States on Dec. 15, but the U.S. Embassy in La Paz did not confirm
whether Reyes Villa is in the United States. Reyes Villa is wanted for
alleged crimes committed during his tenure as prefect of Cochabamba.

IRAN: DIPLOMAT SAYS HE QUIT OVER TREATMENT OF PROTESTERS
A consul at the Iranian Embassy in Oslo said he stepped down to protest
a crackdown on government opposition in Iran, Reuters reported Jan. 6,
citing an interview with Norwegian broadcaster NRK. Reuters reported
that an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said when a diplomat's
mission has ended, he routinely returns to Iran, and that the report was
not true.

NIGERIA: AN AILING PRESIDENT AND THE PROBLEM OF SUCCESSION
Summary
Nigeria's president has been in Saudi Arabia for six weeks receiving
medical treatment, but has refused to grant his vice president the
temporary powers of the presidency. This issue has brought into the open
a clash between two agreements that dictate presidential succession in
Nigeria: an unwritten 1999 agreement to rotate power between north and
south against the protocol outlined in the country's constitution.

Analysis
Political tensions have grown steadily in Nigeria for the past six
weeks, as President Umaru Yaradua seeks medical treatment in Saudi
Arabia. Yaradua, who left Nigeria Nov. 23, has not been heard from
publicly since being admitted to the King Faisal Specialist Hospital and
Research Center in Jeddah after experiencing chest pains associated with
a condition known as pericarditis, an inflammation of the lining around
the heart. The status of his health remains unknown, as is any potential
date for his return to Nigeria.

Political rivals have called for Yaradua to either resign or cede
temporary powers of the presidency to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan,
both of which Yaradua's camp has rejected. The question of presidential
succession -- a potentially explosive issue in Nigeria -- pits the
country's constitutional requirements against the unwritten power-
sharing agreement between Nigeria's north and south, which has governed
the political situation since the transition to democracy in 1999.

Since that transition, Nigeria has been ruled as a de facto one-party
state. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) dominates Nigerian politics,
with PDP governors in power in 28 of the country's 36 states, and PDP
politicians holding the posts of president, vice president and other
high-ranking national offices. However, even within the PDP, there exist
separate loyalties that run along ethnic and geographic lines.

The rough borders of modern-day Nigeria were established by the British
in 1914. The country is divided into six official administrative regions
(known as "geopolitical zones") and two de facto halves: the
predominately Muslim north and the predominately Christian south. Within
the north-south division are several tribes, the most significant being
the Yoruba, Igbo and Ijaw in the south, and the Hausa and Fulani in the north.

The most common theme in Nigerian history has been the fear of
domination -- whether it be domination by the north over the south, the
south over the north, or one ethnic group over another (or all the
others, for that matter). This fear did not dissipate with the
introduction of democracy in 1999. Rather, an unwritten agreement was
reached among the PDP elite that aimed to ensure power would be rotated
between different zones (and thereby among the ethnic groups).

Power-sharing was a way to maintain national unity, and national unity
was seen by the northerners (who had dominated the government during
military rule) as imperative to keeping the oil-rich southern states
economically connected to the hinterland. It made sense that the first
southerner entrusted with the presidency in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo, was
effectively one of the north's own (Obasanjo was a Christian from the
Yoruba ethnic group in the country's southwest, but was also a former
general and military dictator). But even with Obasanjo's military
background, northerners wanted to ensure that in due course, they would
be able to put one of their own in the president's mansion at Aso Rock.

According to this agreement, an open secret in Nigeria, the presidency
would rotate every eight years (two terms) between geopolitical zones,
flipping between north and south every time a change was made. Obasanjo
attempted to upend this agreement by seeking a third term in 2007, but
was blocked by rival PDP factions and ended up choosing Yaradua, a Hausa
governor in the northern state of Katsina, as his successor.

Yaradua's health problems were public knowledge as far back as 2001,
when, as governor, he was forced to spend a month in Germany for kidney
problems. Since being elected president, Yaradua has sought medical
attention abroad at an increased rate. Since March 2007, when he was
running for president as the PDP candidate, Yaradua has been forced to
leave the country six times (twice to Germany, four times to Saudi
Arabia), in addition to having to take a two-week sabbatical from
presidential duties to rest in Abuja in January 2009. This latest trip
to Jeddah is Yaradua's third trip to Saudi Arabia for medical attention
since August 2009. This time, however, the president has been gone for
six weeks, roughly twice the length of any of his previous trips since
2007, and he is reportedly being treated for heart problems, rather than
a kidney ailment.

Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, an Ijaw who hails from the southern
Niger Delta region, has attempted to take over executive
responsibilities in Nigeria, but has not been officially granted
temporary powers, causing several constitutional conundrums. Already the
lack of an inaugurated president in the country has created difficulties
in authorizing a supplementary budget bill and in swearing in a new
chief justice for Nigeria's supreme court, both of which were solved
through what appear to be makeshift methods (Yaradua's advisers in
Jeddah claim he was able to sign the bill from his bedside, despite
rumors that he is incapacitated; Nigeria's attorney general claimed to
find a legal provision enabling the outgoing chief justice to swear in
his replacement, one day before the deadline).

Yaradua (who may not even be conscious at the moment, as he has remained
entirely out of the public eye since November) and the northern elite
within the PDP have resisted granting Jonathan the powers of the
presidency due to fears that should they give it up, and Yaradua does
not recover from his sickness, they will be unable to get it back.
Losing the presidency to the Ijaw could cost the north a great deal of
revenue, as their region is largely agrarian and lacks the vast reserves
of crude oil found in the Ijaw's region, the Niger Delta, an area
responsible for about 95 percent of Nigerian oil output. Whoever
controls the presidency has the ability to control the revenues coming
from the Delta, which allows for patronage and power. Nigeria's
northerners hold the view that they waited eight years for their turn at
the presidency, and have no intention of handing it back to the
southerners after less than one term.

A transfer of temporary authority, however, appears to be exactly what
Nigeria's 1999 constitution requires under the present circumstances.
According to an article in the constitution, cited by those who wish to
see Jonathan take power, Yaradua is obliged to write to the heads of the
two chambers of parliament if he is unable to fulfill his presidential
duties while abroad, so the vice president can take over temporarily.

Thus the debate between north and south over whom should be president of
Nigeria pits the unwritten power sharing agreement of 1999 against the
country's constitution.

Nigeria is not known as a country where the rule of law is sacrosanct.
The south is simply using the constitution as a tool toward achieving
its goal of a return to the presidency. The north, on the other hand, is
refusing to budge, believing it is owed the post until 2015 due to the
understanding that governs the power-sharing system.

Goodluck Jonathan has so far been careful to not appear as if he holds
any designs on Yaradua's position, for fear of the possible
repercussions should the president recover and return to the country. It
is also possible that Jonathan would prefer to wait out his tenure as
vice president and make his own run for president in 2015, when the
south is due its turn.

Jonathan's ties to the Niger Delta (he served as governor of one of the
country's leading oil producing states, Bayelsa, prior to being awarded
the vice presidency) also raise the prospect that the Movement for the
Emancipation for the Niger Delta (MEND), an Ijaw militant group, could
come into play at some point during this dispute. MEND has stated that
Jonathan owes his position to them, indicating extensive connections
between the two. While Jonathan is not MEND's ultimate godfather, he
does have a working relationship with the militant group, and would be
able to use his influence to trigger attacks against oil installations
if he sought additional leverage.

While Yaradua's inner circle will attempt to shield the public (and more
importantly, political rivals) from any negative news on his condition,
it is certain that contingency plans are being formulated by the PDP
elites -- both north and south -- as well as by the military (which is
still dominated by northerners). It is unlikely, however, that anything
short of death will force Yaradua to cede the powers of the acting
presidency to Jonathan. Though there are lawsuits pending which call for
Jonathan to be granted the powers of acting president, the worst-case
scenario for the northerners is that Jonathan would briefly hold the
presidency in the run-up to the 2011 elections.

It is possible that when those elections come around, the Ijaw (and
notably, MEND), so close to the presidency for the first time, could try
to take advantage of their unique historical moment and make a push to
take power in 2011. The northerners will not allow this to happen
without a fight. Regardless of what becomes of Yaradua, they will view
the 2011 presidency as rightfully theirs, and will do everything in
their power to make sure that the unwritten agreement of 1999 trumps
anything prescribed in the constitution.

TURKMENISTAN, IRAN, TURKEY: A NEW PHASE IN ENERGY COMPETITION?
Summary
Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz joined Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov at the
Jan. 6 inauguration ceremony for a natural gas pipeline running from
Turkmenistan to Iran. Yildiz's presence raises the possibility that new
energy routes and players could create fierce competition in the region.

Analysis
An inauguration ceremony for a natural gas pipeline between Turkmenistan
and Iran was held Jan. 6 in southeastern Turkmenistan, with Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Turkmen counterpart Gurbanguly
Berdimukhammedov present. Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz also
attended the ceremony after meeting with both leaders in a previously
unannounced visit to Ashgabat, reportedly at Berdimukhammedov's
invitation, the day before.

This pipeline's debut had been planned for quite some time. However,
Yildiz's presence at the ceremony raises the possibility that new energy
routes and players could significantly alter the region's energy dynamic
and create fierce competition.

The new natural gas pipeline is the second energy link between
Turkmenistan and Iran. Iran previously imported 6 billion cubic meters
(bcm) of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan. With the new pipeline,
that amount is set to increase to 12 bcm in 2010 and then to as much as
18-20 bcm in 2011. The new pipeline is part of Turkmenistan's strategy
to diversify its export markets after a pipeline break disrupted
shipments to its main energy export market, Russia, in April 2009
(natural gas flows have yet to resume). Though the natural gas that will
be sent to Iran through the new pipeline is just a fraction of the 50-60
bcm per year that Turkmenistan previously sent to Russia, it gives
Ashgabat a financial reprieve, since Turkmenistan depends on energy
exports for most of its government revenues. Turkmenistan also recently
debuted another pipeline, with a capacity of 30 bcm, which runs to China.

These new pipelines typically would unnerve Russia, which is wary of
other powers like China and Iran challenging Moscow's influence over
Turkmenistan. However, when the global economic recession drove European
natural gas demand down, Russia simply did not need Turkmenistan's
exports (which it would then sell to the Europeans at a much higher
price). Because Russia's own natural gas supplies were more than
sufficient to meet Europe's needs, Moscow allowed the new pipelines to
be completed. Russia also knew full well that it still had a say in
these new projects, since it controls much of Turkmenistan's energy
infrastructure.

Although the pipelines to China and Iran fulfill Turkmenistan's need for
export markets other than Russia, they also raise the question of what
will happen when European and Russian demand for natural gas returns to
previous levels in the next few years, as several STRATFOR sources in
Russia and Europe have forecast. At that point, Turkmenistan's pipelines
could be operating at full capacity, sending 50 bcm or more to Iran and
China annually. This would leave Turkmenistan unable to meet the
Europeans' needs -- if demand returns to the levels before the drop --
at its current production capacity of 70 bcm. Thus, this could easily
turn into a messy competition among several players for Turkmenistan's
natural gas -- signs of which are already visible.

Enter Turkey. Turkey has long been discussed as a potential energy
transit country, due to its strategic location joining the European and
Asian continents. The Europeans have courted Turkey as a potential
energy transport route for projects like Nabucco, which would bring
Central Asian, Caspian and Middle Eastern energy supplies to the
continent and circumvent Russia. The Russians, meanwhile, see Turkey as
key to making sure the Europeans remain dependent on Russia for energy
through potential projects like South Stream.

Therefore, the Turkish energy minister's presence at the Turkmenistan-
Iran pipeline inauguration is noteworthy. Turkey is waking up from a
near century-long diplomatic slumber and is looking to raise its profile
in strategic areas. One such area is the Middle East, and a key country
with which Turkey already has an energy and trade relationship is Iran.
Turkey imports a small amount of natural gas from Iran and has made
clear its intention to transfer Iranian natural gas to Europe. Iran's
geographical location makes it a very attractive alternative to Russia
for energy supplies destined for Europe, and it has heavy volumes of its
own natural gas (though most current production is used for domestic
consumption) and vast untapped reserves.

Of course, Iran's controversial nuclear program creates massive
political complications in getting Iran involved in such a deal right
now, but this is not to preclude its participation in the future.
Central Asia -- and specifically Turkmenistan -- contains one of the
world's largest supplies of natural gas, and the Turkmenistan-Iran
pipeline now brings that natural gas considerably closer to Turkey. From
Turkey, there are no serious obstacles to getting that natural gas to
Europe. Yildiz's presence at the Turkmenistan-Iran pipeline inauguration
indicates that the Turks are very aware of that. But Russia is also
aware, and will make sure that its voice is heard as competition over
energy routes and supplies in the region heats up.

World News this AM---06 Jan 10

2010-01-06T04:51:00.001-07:00

China-Iran: Update. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said on 5 January that dialogue and negotiations are the correct ways to solve the Iran nuclear issue, Xinhua reported, citing a spokeswoman. The spokeswoman said China hopes negotiators will be more flexible and pragmatic, and step up diplomatic efforts, resuming talks as soon as possible.

This looks like a signal that China will not support new sanctions and a warning to not press them.

Burma: Military leader Senior General Than Shwe has urged people to make what he called the "correct choices" when elections are held at some point later this year. He made his comments in a message to mark Independence Day.

He said the military government's seven-step roadmap to “disciplined democracy” was the only way for the country to achieve democracy. The seven steps were formulated in August 2003. They outline the procedure for convening a National Convention that will implement an undefined “genuine and disciplined democratic system,” including drafting a new constitution.

A date for the elections has not been set, but they will be the first since 1990, when the military refused to recognize the opposition's victory, under the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi. The curious thing in South Asia and Africa is how often military men deem themselves experts in democracy, despite being products of a completely undemocratic organization … the military.

Pakistan: According to a report in the Daily Times, President Ali Zardari said on 5 January the struggle with India over Kashmir was a war of ideologies that would last for generations…. what the Pakistani Kashmiris have labeled a thousand-year war.

Addressing a joint session of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK or Pakistani Kashmir) Assembly and the Kashmir Council, the President said democratic governments had played a key role in moving forward on the Kashmir dispute, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported. “Whenever dictators took over, they spoke of appeasement. We, from Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to Benazir Bhutto to me... have talked to India on equal terms.” When Zulfikar had spoken of waging a thousand-year war, he never said he would not do it through talks or negotiations, he said.

Pakistan-India: The cabinet’s Defence Committee met on 5 January and asserted that Pakistan would never allow its security to be jeopardized. The meeting was held in response to statements by the Indian Chief of Army Staff that India was preparing its forces to fight a two-front war with Pakistan and China.

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani chaired the committee meeting. In a statement issued after the meeting, the committee said Pakistan’s defense forces and its strategic and conventional capabilities would continue to be strengthened. It also affirmed the strong commitment of the government and the people of Pakistan to defend the country’s honor, dignity, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.

Comment: Reading the two reports together, the Pakistani political leadership is now appealing to the military for support. The top two leaders have shifted the focus away from their inability to control the tribal militants, away from Musharraf’s unconstitutional political misdeeds, away from Zardari’s liability for criminal prosecution should he leave office, and have refocused the media on the threat from India and the Kashmir problem.

The press distorted the Indian statement, describing India as planning to launch a two-front war which is completely false. Apparently it is following government direction to incite the Pakistani populace. Hatred for India is the one issue about which all Pakistanis can agree, and diverts attention from the failings of the government and the military during the past year.

Iran: Update. President Ahmadi-Nejad's economic reform bill to cut government food and energy subsidies was ratified by parliament on 5 January, Press TV reported. The bill now goes to the Guardian Council, which will determine whether it will be approved.

Ahmadi-Nejad was elected on a populist agenda to correct inequities in the distribution of wealth, to reform politics and to keep prices low. Today, he and the parliament just increased the cost of living for everyone, contradicting every promise he made six months ago.

Opposition crackdown. Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said today that members of the opposition could face execution should demonstrations continue, Reuters reported, citing IRNA. Najjar said that anyone who takes part in riots will be considered waging war on God and an opponent of national security. The Foreign Ministry said arrested foreigners face punishment.

A regime so closely aligned with its idea of god should not need to resort to threats so often in order to ensure obedience, one would think. The equation of waging war on god = opposition to national security is also curious.

Iraq-Saudi Arabia: Relations are strained again over insulting remarks by a Saudi Sunni cleric about the most revered Shia cleric in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

In a Friday sermon in Riyadh, a leading Wahhabi cleric, Mohammad al-Ureifi, called Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani an "atheist and debauched." He also attacked Iraqi Shias, accusing them of conspiring with Yemen's Huthis against Saudi Arabia with Iran's support.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a Shiite, strongly criticized the Saudi religious institutes, whom he said have a tendency to launch attacks on Shia clerics because of their hostile attitude towards Shia Muslims, Agence France-Presse reported. Duh!

Saudi Arabia has the authority and ability to control Friday sermons. They demonstrate it every time there has been a terrorist attack in the Kingdom by ordering all imams to denounce the attackers. This proven capability compels the conclusion that al-Ureifi’s remarks are not offensive to the King.

After US forces depart, Saudi Arabia will remain an implacable enemy of Shiite controlled Iraq and will never forgive the US for creating the first Shiite government in an Arab country.

Special Comment: First impressions. Publication of Major General Mike Flynn’s criticism of his own area of responsibility, intelligence, was headline news around the world. The document -- Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan -- deserves detailed study, but even a cursory examination indicates astonishing, fundamental problems, despite nine years of fighting in Afghanistan.

First, Flynn is the Director of Intelligence in Afghanistan, the J2, under General McChrystal. He is supposed to own all the intelligence in the theater, but clearly and amazingly he does not.

Second, the J2 is supposed to be a producer of intelligence for the Commander, but the report suggests he is more like a customer of intelligence produced by national agencies. That is the organizational model DIA adopted for the Joint Staff in the Pentagon in 2006. The Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, is the only four-star rank flag officer in the US armed forces without his own fully dedicated intelligence staff. The Chairman’s J2 is a DIA customer, though he is also a DIA flag officer.

While that unusual circumstance might be tolerable in Washington, it is inconceivable that such a bizarre arrangement would be exported to a hot combat zone. Flynn’s report indicates that it has been.

Third, the news media have ignored the extraordinary fact that Flynn published his views in an unclassified outlet. This implies an admission that he lacks the respect and authority to make changes within his own chain of command. That can only be true if he is a customer of intelligence that others produce, rather than the head of his own analytical centers.

What quality and degree of frustration compel a J2 to resort to the unclassified media to plead his case for fixing his own command responsibility?

Fourth, the US has been fighting in Afghanistan since 2001. Whatever semantic games people choose to play about the nature of the fight, the information Flynn wants is just basic to any intelligence problem in support of forces in combat. The information exists. The volume of intelligence reporting on Afghanistan is beyond belief. The detail is extraordinary for anyone who takes the time to read it.

National agencies and Commands were accustomed to know how to mine low grade ore/information to obtain high grade results, routinely. Moreover, combat units always have been sources of actionable tactical intelligence, a historical fact that some in the Afghanistan command seem to think is novel and that they discovered. That is what debriefing is all about. When did the US Army forget that lesson?

Cultural and other detailed local studies are not new requirements for intelligence. DIA once excelled at this work, 40 years ago. So what happened? What’s going on in US intelligence that good people must reinvent old wheels that have existed since World War II?

Fifth, a year ago CJCS Admiral Mullen promised the Afghanistan command everything it needed. DIA set up a 300 person support cell. A year later General Flynn suggests this promise has not been kept or the effort has made no difference, in a year. He wrote that he has enough analysts, but for some reason can’t direct them to do what he judges the Combat Command needs. How can this be possible?

Sixth, why would any nation send its young men and women to fight under these conditions? They do not know and cannot tell who the enemy is, as the attack at FOB Chapman demonstrated, and cannot rely on intelligence to provide the answers, according to Flynn.

The System Failed---Weak Homeland Security

2010-01-05T19:32:00.002-07:00

Janet Napolitano needs to resign, immediately! Eric Holder needs to

resign, also, and we need to call these acts what they are - Terrorism!

Pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN), the explosive Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried to detonate aboard Northwest Airlines flight 253, is among the most powerful of explosives in the world and was widely used to blow up airplanes in the 1970s and 1980s. The only reason the passengers of Flight 253 are still alive today is because Mr. Abdulmutallab’s syringe detonator failed for still unknown reasons.

Yet despite the facts that PETN is easily detected and Mr. Abdulmutallab’s father warned the U.S. embassy in Nigeria about his son this November, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano had the audacity to go on television yesterday and say “the system worked” and that the suspect was properly screened. The “system worked?” The 278 passengers on flight 253 could be dead today but for a faulty syringe and the Obama administration considers that a success? That is pure idiocy. Idiocy that is a direct threat to the security of this country and that goes to the heart of the Obama administration’s approach to the war on terror.

What on earth could Secretary Napolitano possibly mean when she said the “system worked?” The answer can be found at the University of Michigan Medical Center in Ann Arbor where on Saturday U.S. District Judge Paul Borman read Mr. Abdulmutallab the charges the Obama administration has filed against him for trying to blow up Flight 253. And the Obama administration probably will win a slam dunk conviction of Mr. Abdulmutallab. But his conviction will not make us any safer than the convictions of the 1993 World Trade Center bombers did during the Clinton administration. Prosecuting terrorists when we can is necessary to protect our country, but is in no way sufficient.

The Obama administration continues to demonstrate that they believe counterterrorism is a law enforcement problem to be managed, not a war to be won. Hence Attorney General Eric Holder’s insistence on sending Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four other terrorists to New York for a civilian trial in federal court. The five defendants are already plotting how best to air their grievances and exploit their treatment while in detention. Worse, criminalizing the war on terror will force our government to give up the chance to interrogate terrorists like any enemy combatants and lose invaluable intelligence.

The Flight 253 incident was an intelligence failure. Instead of focusing on convictions, the Obama administration should be focusing on gathering the intelligence necessary to best protect the American people. This aborted attack provides a visceral reminder that terrorists remain committed to killing Americans. But it also illustrates the need to:

* Work with international partners on countering terrorism;
* Defend the domestic intelligence and law enforcement tools that disrupt plots inside the U.S.; and
* Pursue foreign terrorist sanctuaries that serve as staging grounds for international operations.

Clearly, terrorists have not wavered in their resolve to strike America. The United States must be equally resolute in its response

World News...Jan 05, 2010 @1929 hrs

2010-01-05T19:28:00.002-07:00

U.S., TAIWAN: TRADE TALKS SCUTTLED AFTER TAIWAN RESUMES U.S. BEEF BAN
Taiwan's Minister of Economic Affairs Shih Yen-Shiang said planned trade
talks between the United States and Taiwan were canceled Jan. 5 in the
wake of Taipei's decision to resume a ban on U.S. beef products, Taiwan
News reported. Shih said planned deals to set the stage for a free-trade
agreement between the two countries also were in jeopardy.

ICELAND: AN ISLAND ADRIFT?
Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson said Jan. 5 that he will veto
the Icesave legislation the country's parliament passed Dec. 30
requiring Iceland to pay back 3.8 billion euro ($5.5 billion) in debt
owed to British and Dutch depositors after the country's financial
meltdown in October 2008. This is only the second time in Iceland's
history that the president -- largely a ceremonial post -- has refused
to sign a bill. The Icesave legislation now will be subject to a
national referendum.

This development puts the island country of just over 300,000 people in
a precarious position, threatening its prospects for European Union and
eurozone membership and putting Iceland's economic and social stability
at greater risk.

Iceland was among the first and hardest hit countries during the 2008
global financial crisis. Iceland's economy had become overly dependent
on a ballooning financial industry whose carry trade transactions
allowed it to buy assets valued at about 10 times the country's gross
domestic product. As the crisis escalated in 2009, and in particular as
the bankruptcy of U.S. trading firm Lehman Brothers triggered a massive
collapse in financial assets' values, Iceland plunged deep into
recession. The double-digit economic contractions sparked rare protests
involving a substantial part of the population and led to the fall of
Prime Minister Geir Haarde's government. Iceland was left on an economic
lifeline, borrowing from a consortium of the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), European Union, and Nordic countries.

The new government of Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir pledged to
bring the country back to financial and social stability, primarily by
declaring Iceland's desire to join the European Union and eurozone. This
was a major development for Reykjavik, as Iceland is staunchly
independent and has remained outside the European political and economic
blocs, largely because of its aversion to regulations on its prized
fishing industry. The economic crisis reversed the country's
isolationism, and Iceland was set to be fast-tracked for EU membership.
This was made possible because of the scale of Iceland's financial
collapse and because, unlike other potential EU members such as Turkey
and Serbia, Iceland was a peaceful and prosperous country and would be
easy to integrate into the bloc because of its diminutive size.

The European Union's primary stipulation for Iceland's membership is for
the country to repay the debts owed to EU creditors and depositors,
including the Icesave Internet bank loans to primarily British and Dutch
depositors. Grimsson's choice to veto the Icesave bill and leave the
decision to the voters therefore puts the country in a very serious
position. Neither decision the voters could make would be particularly
pleasant for Iceland. If the country does not repay the debt, Iceland's
chances of EU membership will suffer a powerful blow, which would cause
investor confidence in the country to plummet. The decision could also
jeopardize Iceland's economic lifelines from the European Union and IMF.
But if Iceland does try to repay the debt, it will require harsh
austerity measures that could trigger serious social unrest.

VENEZUELA: EVIDENCE ON 2009 U.S. INCURSION CLAIMED
Venezuelan Vice President and Defense Minister Ramon Carrizales said
Jan. 5 that evidence exists of an incursion into Venezuela by a U.S.
military aircraft from Curacao on May 17, 2009, El Universal reported.
Carrizales claimed the government has recordings of inquiries made to
the aircraft's crew by air traffic controllers and flight charts that
show it violated Venezuelan airspace and flew into a restricted area
near La Orchila air base.

GERMANY: COUNTRY AT RISK OF WEAK GROWTH - ECONOMIST
Wolfgang Franz, chairman of the German Council of Economic Experts, said
Jan. 5 that Germany is at risk of weak growth if it consolidates its
budget deficit too soon, Bloomberg reported, citing German newspaper Die
Welt. Franz said economists cannot accurately predict growth in the
midst of the current economic crisis, which is not over yet, and that
Germany should wait until 2011 to address deficit concerns.

FRANCE: AIRBUS PREPARING TO TERMINATE A400M
European aircraft manufacturer Airbus is preparing to terminate the
program for its A400M military transport plane, The Financial Times
reported Jan. 5. The report said Airbus President Thomas Enders told a
group of Airbus directors in December that he no longer believed in the
program, and estimated its chances of being canceled at 50 percent. An
unnamed source close to the issue said Airbus is not ready to jeopardize
its civil aviation division in order to proceed with the A400M.

SUDAN: KHARTOUM THREATENS SHAKY PEACE
A senior adviser to Sudanese President Omar al Bashir said in a Jan. 3
Arabic-language television interview that a referendum on Southern
Sudanese independence scheduled for January 2011 will lead to war if
several issues are not resolved beforehand. Ghazi Salaheddin's remarks
represent Khartoum's first public criticism of the referendum's format,
agreed to in December 2009, by Sudan's coalition government. To reach an
agreement on the referendum, there were contentious negotiations between
Khartoum's majority party, National Congress Party (NCP), and leading
Southern Sudanese party Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

Khartoum is doing all it can to ensure that it does not lose control of
the lucrative oil deposits that straddle the border with Southern Sudan,
and is issuing a veiled threat toward Southern Sudan's capital, Juba, in
an attempt to make SPLM leaders think twice about attempting to secede
and take the oil with them.

Salaheddin warned that three key issues must be resolved first: a full
border demarcation between north and south, the proper defining of
nationality for citizens of the north living in Southern Sudan (and vice
versa) and the resolution of external debts (estimated to be around $30
billion) owed by Sudan. In highlighting these issues, the NCP makes it
clear that it intends to ensure oil concessions are drawn on its side of
the border, to register voters in the referendum to skew the results in
the north's favor, and to place burdens on a potentially independent
south by leaving it with large foreign loans to repay right out of the
gate. Khartoum knows that the resolution of these issues is an
interminable task.

Juba is unlikely to be swayed by the government's threats, however. SPLM
Deputy Speaker of Parliament Atem Garang responded to Salaheddin's
remarks by saying that to put off the vote until all of the issues had
been resolved would be tantamount to never holding the vote at all,
adding that the NCP wants to rewrite the 2005 Comprehensive Peace
Agreement, which ended Sudan's 22-year civil war.

Khartoum, which agreed to hold the referendum when it signed the peace
agreement, has no interest in Southern Sudan seceding from the union
without ensuring that the oil deposits straddling the border are awarded
to the north. Khartoum is attempting to derail or delay Southern Sudan's
referendum by giving Juba a choice between economic hardship and war if
the SPLM leadership opts to continue with the vote on secession.

IRAQ: LAWSUITS TO BE FILED OVER OIL-FOR-FOOD VIOLATIONS
Iraq has "asked an American lawyer to prosecute the companies that
violated the law regarding the oil-for-food program," including French
automaker Renault and banking group BNP Paribas, Iraqi Commerce Minister
Safaldin al-Safi said, French newspaper Liberation reported Jan. 5. Iraq
reportedly is seeking a total of $10 billion in compensation from 93
companies suspected of violating the law regarding the terms of the oil-
for-food program.

U.S.: MORE DUTIES IMPOSED ON CHINESE STEEL IMPORTS
The U.S. Commerce Department on Jan. 5 said the United States has
imposed anti-dumping duties ranging from 43 percent to 289 percent on
imports of Chinese-made steel wire decking, Reuters reported. These are
duties in addition to those ranging from 2 percent to 438 percent that
the Commerce Department announced in November 2009.

Islam Explained in Layman's Terms--You can see this happening now!!

2010-01-05T16:30:00.001-07:00

I recommend everyone to read THE HAJ by Leon Uris Then you will understand why there will never be peace in the Middle East.

Adapted from Dr. Peter Hammond's book: Slavery, Terrorism and Islam: The Historical Roots and Contemporary Threat

Islam is not a religion, nor is it a cult. In its fullest form, it is a complete, total, 100% system of life.

Islam has religious, legal, political, economic, social, and military components. The religious component is a beard for all of the other components.

Islamization begins when there are sufficient Muslims in a country to agitate for their religious privileges.

When politically correct, tolerant, and culturally diverse societies agree to Muslim demands for their religious privileges, some of the other components tend to creep in as well..

Here's how it works:

As long as the Muslim population remains around or under 2% in any given country, they will be for the most part be regarded as a peace-loving minority, and not as a threat to other citizens. This is the case in:

United States -- Muslim 0..6%
Australia -- Muslim 1.5%
Canada -- Muslim 1.9%
China -- Muslim 1.8%
Italy -- Muslim 1.5%
Norway -- Muslim 1.8%

At 2% to 5%, they begin to proselytize from other ethnic minorities and disaffected groups, often with major recruiting from the jails and among street gangs.
This is happening in:

Denmark -- Muslim 2%
Germany -- Muslim 3.7%
United Kingdom -- Muslim 2.7%
Spain -- Muslim 4%
Thailand -- Muslim 4.6%

From 5% on, they exercise an inordinate influence in proportion to their percentage of the population. For example, they will push for the introduction of halal (clean by Islamic standards) food, thereby securing food preparation jobs for Muslims. They will increase pressure on supermarket chains to feature halal on their shelves -- along with threats for failure to comply. This is occurring in:

France -- Muslim 8%
Philippines -- 5%
Sweden -- Muslim 5%
Switzerland -- Muslim 4.3%
The Netherlands -- Muslim 5.5%
Trinidad & Tobago -- Muslim 5.8%

At this point, they will work to get the ruling government to allow them to rule themselves (within their ghettos) under Sharia, the Islamic Law. The ultimate goal of Islamists is to establish Sharia law over the entire world.

When Muslims approach 10% of the population, they tend to increase lawlessness as a means of complaint about their conditions. In Paris , we are already seeing car-burnings. Any non-Muslim action offends Islam, and results in uprisings and threats, such as in Amsterdam, with opposition to Mohammed cartoons and films about Islam. Such tensions are seen daily, particularly in Muslim sections, in:

Guyana -- Muslim 10%
India -- Muslim 13.4%
Israel -- Muslim 16%
Kenya -- Muslim 10%
Russia -- Muslim 15%

After reaching 20%, nations can expect hair-trigger rioting, jihad militia formations, sporadic killings, and the burnings of Christian churches and Jewish synagogues, such as in:

Ethiopia -- Muslim 32.8%

At 40%, nations experience widespread massacres, chronic terror attacks, and ongoing militia warfare, such as in:

Bosnia -- Muslim 40%
Chad -- Muslim 531%
Lebanon -- Muslim 59.7%

From 60%, nations experience unfettered persecution of nonbelievers of all other religions (including nonconforming Muslims), sporadic ethnic cleansing (genocide), use of Sharia Law as a weapon, and Jizya, the tax placed on infidels, such as in:

Albania -- Muslim 70%
Malaysia -- Muslim 60.4%
Qatar -- Muslim 77.5%
Sudan -- Muslim 70%

After 80%, expect daily intimidation and violent jihad, some State-run ethnic cleansing, and even some genocide, as these nations drive out the infidels, and move toward 100% Muslim, such as has been experienced and in some ways is ongoing in:

Bangladesh -- Muslim 83%
Egypt -- Muslim 90%
Gaza -- Muslim 98.7%
Indonesia -- Muslim 86.1%
Iran -- Muslim 98%
Iraq -- Muslim 97%
Jordan -- Muslim 92%
Morocco -- Muslim 98.7%
Pakistan -- Muslim 97%
Palestine -- Muslim 99%
Syria -- Muslim 90%
Tajikistan -- Muslim 90%
Turkey -- Muslim 99.8%
United Arab Emirates -- Muslim 96%

100% will usher in the peace of 'Dar-es-Salaam' -- the Islamic House of Peace. Here there's supposed to be peace, because everybody is a Muslim, the Madrasses are the only schools, and the Koran is the only word, such as in:

Afghanistan -- Muslim 100%
Saudi Arabia -- Muslim 100%
Somalia -- Muslim 100%
Yemen -- Muslim 100%

Unfortunately, peace is never achieved, as in these 100% states the most radical Muslims intimidate and spew hatred, and satisfy their blood lust by killing less radical Muslims, for a variety of reasons.

'Before I was nine I had learned the basic canon of Arab life. It was me against my brother; me and my brother against our father; my family against my cousins and the clan; the clan against the tribe; the tribe against the world, and all of us against the infidel. -- Leon Uris, 'The Haj'

It is important to understand that in some countries, with well under 100% Muslim populations, such as France, the minority Muslim populations live in ghettos, within which they are 100% Muslim, and within which they live by Sharia Law. The national police do not even enter these ghettos. There are no national courts, nor schools, nor non-Muslim religious facilities. In such situations, Muslims do not integrate into the community at large. The children attend madrasses. They learn only the Koran. To even associate with an infidel is a crime punishable with death. Therefore, in some areas of certain nations, Muslim Imams and extremists exercise more power than the national average would indicate.

Today's 1.5 billion Muslims make up 22% of the world's population. But their birth rates dwarf the birth rates of Christians, Hindus, Buddhists, Jews, and all other believers.. Muslims will exceed 50% of the world's population by the end of this century.

Adapted from Dr. Peter Hammond's book: Slavery, Terrorism and Islam: The Historical Roots and Contemporary Threat

Well, boys and girls, today we are letting the fox guard the hen house. The wolves will be herding the sheep!
Obama Appoints two devout Muslims to homeland security posts. Doesn't this make you feel safer already?
Obama and Janet Napolitano Appoint Arif Alikhan, a devout Muslim as Assistant Secretary for Policy Development
DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano swore-in Kareem Shora, a devout Muslim, who was born in Damascus, Syria as ADC National Executive Director as a member of the Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC).
NOTE: Has anyone ever heard a new government official being identified as a devout Catholic, a devout Jew or a devout Protestant...? Just wondering.

Devout Muslims being appointed to critical Homeland Security positions? Doesn't this make you feel safer already??

That should make our homeland much safer, huh?

Was it not "Devout Muslim men" that flew planes into U.S. buildings 8 years ago? Was it not a Devout Muslim who killed 13 at Fort Hood?

New York Post December 31, 2009 O's Day Of Reckoning Iran deadline just plain dead

2010-01-05T16:27:00.000-07:00

By Ralph Peters

It's showtime, folks! Today's the deadline President Obama imposed on Iran 's leaders to give up their nuclear ambitions and be nice.

Not sure if the deadline expires at midnight in Tehran or on Washington time, but the mullahs and President Mahmoud "Mighty Mouse" Ahmadinejad aren't scrambling to give Obama a New Year's Eve smooch.

Rather than cave in to our president's mighty rhetoric, the Tehran tyrants took a break from killing protesters in the streets to attempt to import more than 1,300 tons of make-a-nuke uranium ore from Kazakhstan .

They've also increased their nuke-cooker centrifuge count, tested new long-range missiles and lied like Persian rugs about hidden nuke sites. In response, our president threatened to huff and puff and blow their house down.

Iran 's retort? "Love the cool breeze, Barack."

This is another debacle of Obama's own making. It's a fundamental rule of playgrounds and security policy that you shouldn't make threats you can't or won't back up. But Obama's in love with the sound of his own voice. The fanatics in Tehran are more interested in the sound of a nuclear blast.

Desperate leftists in our country still compare Obama to Bush, insisting that, well, Obama's not doing so badly, not really, not if you really think about it.

Bush, for all his faults, worried our enemies. Obama amuses them.

Obama's primary threat against the Tehran thugs has been sanctions. OK, let's see if he can get internationally recognized sanctions that actually bite. I'm offering 100-to-1 odds in Tehran 's favor.

China won't play. Beijing wants Iran 's oil and values Tehran as a regional cat's paw.

Dubai won't halt its massive illicit trade with Iran . Local ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum's desert playground is $80 billion in the hole. And smuggling's Dubai 's only growth industry these days.

And Russia will cheat on any paper agreements. As will the 'stans of Central Asia . And Qatar , the UAE and Kuwait . Iraq , too. And Pakistan .

Obama's threatened sanctions get even more laughable, since they'd target only Iran 's power elite. Insiders in any dictatorship are those best able to duck the pain of sanctions. So Ahmadinejad can't get a visa for a Vegas vacation. That'll teach him a lesson.

Only comprehensive sanctions backed by a military blockade have any chance of working. Otherwise, as we've seen in North Korea , the well-connected continue to feast while the commoners faint from hunger. And there won't be a blockade, folks.

If sanctions weren't enough of a joke, we also have Obama's all-too-obvious reluctance to back the millions of Iranians struggling for freedom and democracy. Our president's empty remarks this week checked the block for nervous American leftists, but provided no useful support to Iranians risking their lives for basic rights.

What should this inept administration do? Provide clandestine, covert and overt support to Iran 's freedom crusaders. And funnel money and arms to Baluchi, Kurdish, Azeri and Arab separatists willing to take on the Revolutionary Guard jihadis.

Meanwhile, a paradox arises from those courageous demonstrations in Iran : They really do threaten the monstrous regime of the mullahs -- and that makes Iran 's bully-boys even more likely to use nukes as soon as they get them.

If Ahmadinejad and the turbaned tyrants sense that time's running out, they'll launch any nukes they have against Israel in a frantic attempt to kick-start Armageddon and entice the Hidden Imam to return.

These are not rational actors by our standards. They're authentic fanatics. And the (shrinking) civilized world is racing against the clock to change the Tehran regime before the regime can change the world.

President Obama's answer? Make it harder for Iran 's rulers to acquire foreign luxury goods. Guess Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah Khamenei won't be drinking Chateau Margaux or Cheval Blanc at their we-popped-a-nuke celebration.

While Obama dithers, Israel may have to act. The Gulf will explode. Oil will be a bargain at $400 a barrel. The global economy will freeze. And we'll be in the fight anyway.

And then? Obama will interrupt another vacation to explain that those wicked Israelis didn't give his sanctions time to work. And it'll be Bush's fault, too. And America 's. And Islam will have nothing to do with religious madmen murdering their own people in the streets and begging Allah to help them nuke their neighbors.

Happy New Year!